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Is There a Concept of Experimental Error in Greek Astronomy?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 January 2009
Extract
The attempt to narrow the general discourse of the problem of error and to focus it on the specific problem of experimental error may be approached from different directions. One possibility is to establish a focusing process from the standpoint of history; such an approach requires a careful scrutiny of the history of science with a view to identifying the juncture when the problem of experimental error was properly understood and accounted for. In a study of this kind one would have to examine the evolution of the method of experimentation and related topics so that clear criteria would underlie the analysis.
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References
I am grateful to Professor H. Post, Professor A. Franklin and the Editor for their critical comments. A special debt is due to the work of Professor G. E. R. Lloyd and to his remarks concerning this article.
1 ‘Nunc quia contemni non potuerunt, sola igitur haec octo minuta viam praeiverunt ad totam Astronomiam reformandam, suntque materia magnae parti hujus operis facta.’ Quoted by Koyré. (Koyré, A., The Astronomical Revolution: Copernicus-Kepler-Borelli, (tr. Maddison, R.E.W.), London, 1973, p. 401Google Scholar, note no. 22.) See Hon, G., ‘On Kepler's Awareness of the Problem of Experimental Error’, Annals of Science (1987), 44, pp. 545–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
2 Plato, , Republic, 2nd edn, rev. (tr. with an introduction Lee, D.), London, 1974, p. 338 (529d).Google Scholar
3 Ibid.
4 Ibid., (529b–c), emphasis in translation.
5 Ibid., p. 339(530b).
6 Ibid., (530b–c).
7 Ibid., p. 340 (531).
8 Ibid., (531b).
9 Ibid., p. 342(531c).
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13 Neugebauer, O., The Exact Sciences of Antiquity, 2nd edn, New York, 1969, p. 152Google Scholar; see also p. 69.
14 Neugebauer, O., ‘Notes on Hipparchus’, in Weinberg, S.S. (ed.), The Aegean and the Near East, New York, 1956, p. 296.Google Scholar See also Neugebauer, O., Astronomy and History, Selected Essays, New York, 1983.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Quoted by Palter, R., ‘An Approach to the History of Early Astronomy’, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science (1970), 1, p. 127CrossRefGoogle Scholar note no. 3. However, see op. cit. (49).
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21 Ibid. Cf. Neugebauer, op. cit. (16), pp. 634–643.
22 Neugebauer, ibid., p. 642.
23 Ibid. Boyer describes Aristarchus' method as unimpeachable; ‘the result,’ he writes, ‘being vitiated only by the error of observation in measuring the angle MES as 87 degrees.’ (Boyer, C.B., A History of Mathematics, New York, 1968, p. 177.)Google Scholar By disregarding the enormous practical difficulty which the measurement of angle MES involves, Boyer misses a crucial element of this method of Aristarchus, namely, that for all intents and purposes, Aristarchus' measurement is a mathematical exercise. Cf., Lloyd, G.E.R., ‘Observational Error in Later Greek Science’, in Barnes, J. et al. (eds) Science and Speculation, Studies in Hellenistic Theory and Practice, Cambridge, 1982, p. 153.Google Scholar
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34 Ibid.
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36 Neugebauer, ibid., pp. 100, 1235, Fig. 92.
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38 Pappus' commentary; quoted by Toomer, ibid., 126–127.
39 Toomer, , op. cit. (37), p. 139. Cf.Google Scholar, Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 109–112, 327–329.Google Scholar
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41 Toomer, , op. cit. (37), pp. 139–140.Google Scholar Dreyer, ibid.
42 Toomer, ibid.
43 However, Kepler did not carry out his plan and wrote instead an elementary text-book of astronomy, Epitome Astronomiae Copernicanae. (Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), pp. 403.)Google Scholar
44 Toomer, , op. cit. (37), pp. 139–140.Google Scholar
45 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 329.Google Scholar
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49 Ibid. In Neugebauer's view ‘Muslim astronomers … restricted themselves by and large to the most elementary parts of Greek astronomy: refinements in the parameters of the solar motion, and increased accuracy in the determination of the obliquity of the ecliptic and the constant of precession’. (Ibid., p. 145.) However, Neugebauer remarks that ‘the conceptual elegance of Ptolemy's cinematic models and the logical consistency of the derivation of the fundamental parameters from carefully selected observations made it extremely difficult to introduce more than insignificant modifications of the basic theory’. Thus, Neugebauer continues, ‘every attempt at a revision of the foundations of the planetary theory must have appeared, rightly, as a gigantic task, not lightly to be undertaken in view of the consistency of the structure erected in the Almagest’. (Ibid.) For Neugebauer ‘it is not surprising that a cosmological theory of such impressive internal consistency was not conducive to serious scrutiny’. (Ibid., p. 919.)
50 Ibid., pp. 54, 369, 529, 543 note no. 13, 1082–1083.
51 Ibid., pp. 807 note no. 15, 1082–1083.
52 Ibid., p. 54.
53 Ibid., pp. 292–298.
54 However, see the criticism of Aaboe and Price, particularly the discussion of the different accuracy obtained in solstice and equinox observations. (Aaboe, A. and de Solla Price, D.J., ‘Qualitative Measurement in Antiquity: the derivation of accurate parameters from crude but crucial observations’, in Koyré, A., L'aventure de la Science, Mélanges A. Koyré, Vol. I, Paris, 1964, pp. 6–10. Cf. op. cit. (138).Google Scholar
55 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 293Google Scholar, my emphasis. Apparently, this discovery led Hipparchus to introduce real ecliptic coordinates because longitudes increase proportionally with time whereas latitudes remain unchanged. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (13), p. 69.)Google Scholar
56 Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 181Google Scholar note no. 295. Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 141.Google ScholarNeugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 294.Google Scholar
57 Neugebauer, ibid., p. 298.
58 Quoted by Ptolemy. See Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 141.Google Scholar
59 Hipparchus adduces another proof for variation in the length of the tropical year from calculations based on eclipse data. However, Ptolemy criticizes this proof and considers it circular. (Ibid., pp. 142, 156. Neugebaucr, , op. cit. (16), p. 295. See op. cit. (90).)Google Scholar
60 Neugebauer, ibid. Cf., op. cit. (85, 86). Copernicus also did not realize that errors of observation were quite sufficient to account for the difference between the various values of the constant of precession. (Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 329.)Google Scholar
61 Neugebauer, ibid., p. 294.
62 Ibid., pp. 294, note no. 15, 296. See also op. cit. (84).
63 Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 203.Google Scholar
64 Ibid.
65 E.g., Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 89.Google Scholar
66 Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), pp. 161, 166–167.Google Scholar
67 Quoted by Dreyer, ibid., pp. 165–166.
68 See Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 319–321.Google Scholar
69 In his ‘Notes on Hipparchus’, Neugebauer concludes that ‘it is our good luck to be able to see in the Almagest how Ptolemy utilized this material with supreme skill’. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (14), p. 296.)Google Scholar
70 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 321.Google Scholar
71 Ibid., p. 320.
72 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (14), p. 296.Google Scholar
73 Quoted by Koyré, , op. cit. (1), p. 398Google Scholar, note no. 4. Neugebauer puts it this way: ‘One may perhaps say that the role of Apollonius, Hipparchus, and Ptolemy has a parallel in the positions of Copernicus, Brahe and Kepler.’ (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 309.)Google Scholar
74 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 158.Google Scholar
75 Toomer, , op. cit. (37), p. 131.Google Scholar
76 Ibid., p. 131, note no. 25.
77 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 106.Google Scholar
78 Toomer, , op. cit. (37), p. 131.Google Scholar Lloyd suggests that Ptolemy settled on a one-value parameter, instead of a bounded one in order to simplify the computations. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 155.)Google Scholar Cf., op. cit. (115).
79 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 151Google Scholar, emphasis in the original. However, Lloyd points out that ‘in acoustics, as in astronomy, it was sometimes recognised that different observers will get different results’. (Ibid., p. 132, note no. 8.) Indeed, when Plato discusses harmonics in the Republic, he remarks that ‘some say they can distinguish a note between two others, which gives them a minimum unit of measurement, while others maintain that there's no difference between the notes in question’. (Plato, , op. cit. (2), p. 340 (530).)Google Scholar
80 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 151Google Scholar, emphasis in the original. Cf., Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 197Google Scholar; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 892–896Google Scholar; Palter, , op. cit. (14), pp. 121–122Google Scholar; Smith, A.M., ‘Ptolemy's Search for a Law of Refraction: A Case-study in the Classical Methodology of “Saving the Appearances” and its Limitations’, Archive for History of Exact Sciences (1982), 26 no. 3, pp. 221–240.Google Scholar
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82 Ptolemy, , Almagest, (trs. and ann. Toomer, G.J.), London, 1984Google Scholar, Bk. VII, Ch. 2. Toomer, , op. cit. (37), p. 131Google Scholar note no. 25. Cf., Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 203Google Scholar; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 54, 160Google Scholar; Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), pp. 147–149.Google Scholar
83 Pedersen, O., A Survey of the Almagest, Odense, 1974, p. 248.Google Scholar Neugebauer, ibid., pp. 986, 1037.
84 Neugebauer, ibid., p. 34.
85 Quoted by Palter, , op. cit. (14), pp. 122–123.Google Scholar
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87 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), pp. 142, 146–147.Google Scholar
88 Quoted by Lloyd, ibid., p. 142.
89 Ibid., p. 145. However, as Lloyd stresses, it is not in dispute that the paucity of the actual observations cited in Ptolemy's detailed accounts of the movements of the planets in Books IX to XI is remarkable. For each planet he cites almost the minimum number of observations that are necessary to determine the parameters of what is after all a complex model. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 186.)Google Scholar Ptolemy is in general quite confident that his theories work well; indeed, he considers approximate or uncorrected figures adequate for the exposition of his model. (Ibid., p. 187 note no. 325.)
90 However, Ptolemy criticized Hipparchus' indirect method of determining the length of the tropical year using the data of lunar eclipses. He argued that these calculations presuppose correct determinations of equinoctial points, and cannot be carried out independently of assumptions about the sun's position. Ptolemy thus exposed the circularity of this method. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), pp. 142, 156.Google ScholarNeugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 295.)Google Scholar
91 Lloyd, ibid., p. 145. Cf. Hon, op. cit. (1), pp. 557–559.
92 Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 195Google Scholar; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 99Google Scholar; Palter, , op. cit. (14), p. 126Google Scholar; Toomer, , op. cit. (37), p. 129.Google Scholar However, Lloyd points out that Ptolemy does not always set out his workings in such a way that one can see precisely what margin of error he allowed himself. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 149.)Google Scholar
93 Lloyd, ibid., p. 152.
94 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 148.Google Scholar
95 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (13), pp. 155–156.Google Scholar
96 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 148, 917–922, 1088Google Scholar; Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 199.Google Scholar Cf. Hon, , op. cit. (1), pp. 562–563.Google Scholar
97 Neugebauer, ibid., pp. 103, 657–658. Ptolemy in fact adduces an array of arguments against this method: (1) the hole of the clepsydra gets stopped up; (2) the quantity of water that flows out in a night or a day is not necessarily an exact multiple of the quantity taken at the rising; (3) it is inexact to take the chord as equal to the arc it subtends. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 143.)Google Scholar
98 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 893–894.Google Scholar
99 Ibid., p. 894.
100 Op. cit. (80), and (137); but see (139).
101 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 894; op. cit. (136).Google Scholar Ptolemy lists in the Optics many illusory phenomena and he attempts to account for them. Far from concluding that sight is deceptive, he stresses the difference between exceptional and normal sight. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 161.)Google Scholar
102 Lloyd, ibid., p. 147.
103 Ibid., p. 150.
104 Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 198.Google Scholar
105 Ibid.
106 Ibid., emphasis on the original.
107 Ibid., p. 192; Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), pp. 147, 157.Google Scholar
108 Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 198.Google Scholar In his account of Venus, Ptolemy claims that the observational data required the introduction of the equant: the ‘centre for the eccenter which produces the uniform motion’, to use Ptolemy's own definition. (Ibid., p. 192; Neugebauer, op. cit. (16), p. 1102.) In Neugebauer's view, the introduction of the equant was an ‘important step in the history of the theory of planetary motion …, a step which was eliminated by philosophical reasons in Copernicus' theory but again fully recognized in its importance by Kepler’. (Neugebauer, ibid., p. 171; cf., Hon, op. cit. (1), p. 559.)
109 Lloyd, ibid., p. 198.
110 The existence of a Greek star-catalogue of over 1000 stars which gives longitude, latitude and magnitude determinations for each star, is considered another evidence—regardless of the controversy concerning its origin—of sustained observational work. (Ibid., pp. 183–184, 200; Dreyer, op. cit. (40), pp. 202–203; Neugebauer, op. cit. (13), pp. 68–69; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 53–54, 280–292, 577, 836, 1087Google Scholar; Palter, , op. cit. (14), p. 126.)Google Scholar
111 Quoted by Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 133.Google Scholar
112 Ibid., pp. 156–157; Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 182.Google Scholar
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114 Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 200.Google Scholar
115 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 155.Google Scholar Lloyd thus holds that the deductive articulation of Ptolemy's theories has effectively ruled out in most cases the use of upper and lower limits for the main fundamental parameters. (Ibid., p. 156.) Neugebauer on his part observes that Ptolemy ‘resorted to mere approximations when higher accuracy implied too heavy a burden of numerical computations’. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 145.)Google Scholar
116 The epicycle-eccentric model of Hipparchus and Ptolemy for the sun and moon has been hailed as ‘the outstanding example, from the ancient world, of a theory that combined the mathematical rigour the Greek scientists demanded with a detailed empirical base’. (Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 200.)Google Scholar
117 Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 201.Google Scholar Ptolemy indeed records his awareness of this discrepancy. (Lloyd, , op. cit.(23), p. 139.)Google Scholar
118 Dreyer, ibid., p. 196.
119 Ibid., p. 201. The phenomenon of annular solar eclipse is another case in point. Since Ptolemy assumed that the apparent lunar diameter equals the apparent solar diameter when the moon is at its maximum geocentric distance (previous astronomers had assumed equality for the moon at mean distance), he in effect denied the possibility of annular solar eclipse. However, in all probability such a phenomenon was observed still in his lifetime. But, as Neugebauer remarks, ‘neither then nor during the next 1400 years was the obviously necessary modification … undertaken’. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 104, 111.)Google Scholar Kepler studied carefully reports of such an eclipse and considered them correct. (Hon, , op. cit. (1), p. 579.)Google Scholar In general, Kepler did not rest until he was able to reconcile all aspects of theory and observations, whereas Ptolemy's theory had been accepted for centuries without any attempt to eliminate its defects. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 98.)Google Scholar ‘I have built up a theory of Mars’, Kepler writes to his teacher, Maestlin, , ‘such that there is no difficulty about agreement between calculation and the accuracy of observational data’.Google Scholar (Quoted by Koyré, , op. cit. (1), p. 397 note no. 4.)Google Scholar
120 Dreyer, ibid., p. 196.
121 Ibid., p. 201.
122 On the Planetary Hypotheses see Pedersen, , op. cit. (83), pp. 391Google Scholar ff; Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 199Google Scholar; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), pp. 900ff.Google Scholar
123 Quoted by Dreyer, , op. cit. (40), p. 196.Google Scholar
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125 Aaboe, and Price, , op. cit. (54), pp. 3–4.Google Scholar
126 Neugebauer, , op. cit. (13), p. 185.Google Scholar Elsewhere Neugebauer writes that ‘it makes no sense to praise or to condemn the ancients for the accuracy or for the errors in their numerical results. What is really admirable in ancient astronomy is its theoretical structure, erected in spite of the enormous difficulties that beset the attempts to obtain reliable empirical data’. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 108.)Google Scholar
127 Aaboe and Price go on to say that ‘the simple numbers however produce results that agree remarkably well with the facts, so that we must marvel at the way in which the choice and simple numbers were injected into suitably interlocking chains’. (Aaboe, and Price, , op. cit. (54), p. 20.)Google Scholar
128 Ibid.
129 Lloyd, , op. cit. (11), p. 200.Google Scholar
130 Ibid., p. 221.
131 Aaboe, and Price, , op. cit. (54), p. 16Google Scholar; Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 1089.Google Scholar
132 Hon, op. cit. (1). Cf., Jardine, N., The Birth of History and Philosophy of Science: Kepler's A Defence of Tycho against Ursus with essays on its provenance and significance, Cambridge, 1984.Google Scholar
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134 Ibid., pp. 133–134.
135 Ibid., pp. 134–135.
137 Ibid., p. 134. However, as Neugebauer remarks, ‘it should be remembered how difficult the problem still appeared to Brahe and Kepler when it was taken up around 1600’. (Neugebauer, , op. cit. (16), p. 896.)Google Scholar
138 Aaboe, and Price, , op. cit. (54), p. 9.Google Scholar
139 Lloyd, , op. cit. (23), p. 135.Google Scholar
140 Ibid., pp. 136ff.
141 Op. cit. (28, 30, 97).
142 Wittgenstein, L., On Certainty, (eds Anscombe, G. E. M. and von Wright, G. H., trs Paul, D. and Anscombe, G. E. M.), Oxford, 1977, p. 84e (#641).Google Scholar
143 Hon. op. cit. (1), p. 591.Google Scholar Cf., Hon, G., ‘On the Concept of Experimental Error’, Ph.D. Thesis, London University, (1985)Google Scholar, Ch. IV: A Classification of Types of Experimental Error; Hon, G., ‘Towards a Typology of Experimental Errors: an Epistemological View’, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 20.Google Scholar
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