Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T01:26:25.456Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Management of Risks in Banking

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

J.N. Allan
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, The City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, U.K. Tel: +44(0)171-477-8478; Fax: +44(0)171-477-8838

Abstract

This paper takes an overview of the various financial risks which need to be managed in banking. It then looks in detail at the specific areas of operational risk, market risk and pricing loans. A cash flow model is then developed, which takes explicit account of the various financial factors which should influence the interest rate charged. The model is applied to price loans with various features. The results of the model are shown, and weaknesses in the model and possible areas for further work indicated.

Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abbott, W.M.(1987). Statutory regulation of long-term business. Life Assurance Monograph, Institute of Actuaries, London.Google Scholar
Allan, J.N., Booth, P.M., Mehta, S. & Pryor, L. (1996). Retail deposits and mortgage lending: an appraisal of analytical techniques. In Proceedings of the 1996 Investment Conference, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, 223242.Google Scholar
Allen, C. & Milne, M. (1994). Mismatch in the housing market. Urban Studies, 31, 14511463.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altman, E.I. (1983). Corporate financial distress. John Wiley & Sons, New York.Google Scholar
Altman, E.I. (1996). Corporate bond and commercial loan portfolio analysis. Wharton School Working Paper Series, 96–41.Google Scholar
Altman, E.I., Avery, R., Eisenbeis, R. & Sinkey, J. (1981). Application of classification techniques in business, banking and finance. J.A.I. Press, Greenwich, Connecticut.Google Scholar
Booth, P.M. (1997a). Actuarial issues in the regulation of pension schemes and life insurance companies: the regulation of solvency. Internal paper for OECD, Paris.Google Scholar
Booth, P.M. (1997b). The analysis of actuarial investment risk. City University Actuarial Research Paper, 93.Google Scholar
Boskov, M. & Verrall, R.J. (1994). Premium rating by geographic area using spatial models. ASTIN Bulletin, 24, 131143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyle, M., Crook, J.N., Hamilton, R. & Thomas, L.C. (1992). Methods for credit scoring applied to slow payers. In Proceedings of Conference on Credit Scoring and Control (eds. Thomas, L.C., Crook, J.N. & Edelman, D.B.), 7590, Clarendon, Oxford.Google Scholar
Breedon, F.J. & Joyce, M.A.S. (1993). House prices, arrears and possessions: a three equation model for the U.K. Bank of England Working Paper Series, 14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breiman, L., Friedman, J.H., Olshen, R.A. & Stone, C.J. (1984). Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth International Group, Belmont, California.Google Scholar
Brennan, P.J. (1993a). Promise of artificial intelligence remains elusive in banking today. Bank Management, July 1993, 49–53.Google Scholar
Brennan, P. J. (1993b). Profitability scoring comes of age. Bank Management, September 1993, 58–62.Google Scholar
Brockman, M.J. & Wright, T.S. (1992). Statistical motor rating: making effective use of your data. J.I.A. 119, 457543.Google Scholar
Brookes, M., Dicks, M. & Pradhan, M. (1994). An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions. Economic Modelling, 11, 134144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Building Societies Association. (1985). Trends in mortgage arrears. BSA Bulletin, 43, 18.Google Scholar
Burrows, R. & Ford, J. (1997). Who needs a safety net? The social distribution of mortgage arrears in England. Housing Finance, 34, 1724.Google Scholar
Cade, E. (1997). Managing hanking risks. Gresham Books, London.Google Scholar
Carlin, B.P. (1992). State space modelling of some non-standard actuarial time series. Insurance-Mathematics and Economics, 11, 209222.Google Scholar
Choraras, D. N. & Steinmann, H. (1991). Expert systems in banking. Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarkson, R.S. (1989). The measurement of investment risk. J.I.A. 116, 127178.Google Scholar
Coopers & Lybrand (1996). Generally accepted risk principles. Coopers & Lybrand.Google Scholar
Council of Mortgage Lenders (1996). Table 25. Housing Finance, 32, 46.Google Scholar
Cox, E. (1995). Fuzzy logic for business and industry. Charles River Media, Inc., Rockland MA.Google Scholar
Daykin, C.D., Pentikäinen, T. & Pesonen, M. (1994). Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries. Chapman and Hall, London.Google Scholar
Desai, V.S., Conway, D.G., Crook, J.N. & Overstreet, G.A. JR (1996). Credit scoring models in the credit union environment using neural networks and genetic algorithms. Presented at the fourth Credit Scoring and Credit Control Conference, Edinburgh.Google Scholar
Everitt, B.S. (1993). Cluster analysis. Edward Arnold, London.Google Scholar
Finkelstein, G.S. (1997). Maturity guarantees revisited: allowing for extreme stochastic fluctuations using stable distributions. B.A.J. 3, 411482.Google Scholar
Ford, J., Kempson, E. & Wilson, M. (1995). Mortgage arrears and possessions; perspectives from borrowers, lenders and the courts. London, HMSO.Google Scholar
Frydman, H., Altman, E.I. & Kao, D. (1985). Introducing recursive partitioning for financial classification: the case of financial distress. The Journal of Finance, 40, 269291.Google Scholar
Geoghegan, T.J., Clarkson, R.S., Feldman, K.S., Green, S.J., Kitts, A., Lavecky, J.P., Ross, F.J.M., Smith, W.J. & Toutounchi, A. (1992). Working party report on the Wilkie stochastic investment model. J.I.A. 119, 173228.Google Scholar
Griffin, K. (1996). The retail banking industry in Australia. Institute of Actuaries of Australia.Google Scholar
Haberman, S. (1995). Discussion of Wilkie (1995), B.A.J. 1, 953.Google Scholar
Hand, D.J. & Henley, W.E. (1997). Statistical classification methods in consumer credit scoring: a review. J.R.S.S., Series A, 160, 523541.Google Scholar
Hare, D.J.P. & Mccutcheon, J.J. (1991). An introduction to profit testing. Institute of Actuaries.Google Scholar
Hastie, T.J. & Tibshirani, R.J. (1990). Generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall, London.Google Scholar
Henley, W.E. & Hand, D.J. (1996). A k:-nearest neighbour classifier for assessing consumer credit risk. The Statistician, 45, 7795.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsapple, C.W., Tam, K.Y. & Whinston, A.B. (1988). Adapting expert system technology to financial management. Financial Management, February 1988, 1222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, P.P. (1997). A review of Wilkie's stochastic investment model. B.A.J. 3, 181210.Google Scholar
Huber, P.P. & Verrall, R.J. (1997) The development of U.K. actuarial economic models. Talk given at the 5th International Conference on Insurance Solvency and Finance.Google Scholar
Hylands, J.F. & Gray, L.J. (1989). Product pricing in life assurance. Institute of Actuaries.Google Scholar
Institute of Actuaries (1996). Members' handbook. Institute of Actuaries.Google Scholar
Jost, A. (1993). Neural networks: a logical progression in credit and marketing decision systems. Credit World, March/April 1993, 2633.Google Scholar
Kau, J.B., Keenan, D.C., Muller, W.J. & Epperson, J.F. (1992). A generalized valuation model for fixed-rate residential mortgages. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24, 279299.Google Scholar
Kemp, M.H.D. (1997). Actuaries and derivatives. B.A.J. 3, 51162.Google Scholar
Lecot, K. (1993). ICARE: a knowledge-based underwriting system. International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 2, 101111.Google Scholar
Leonard-Barton, D. & Sviokla, J.J. (1988). Putting expert systems to work. The Harvard Business Review, March/April 1988, 9198.Google Scholar
Lewin, G.C., Carne, S.A., De Rivaz, N.F.C., Hall, R.E.G., Mckelvey, K.J. & Wilkie, A.D. (1995). Capital projects. B.A.J. 1, 155249.Google Scholar
Lowe, J. (1997). Neural networks. The Actuary, October 1997, 2021.Google Scholar
Mccutcheon, J.J. & Scott, W.F. (1986). An introduction to the mathematics of finance. Heinemann, London.Google Scholar
Makov, U.E., Smith, A.F.M. & Liu, Y.H. (1996). Bayesian models in actuarial science. The Statistician, 45, 503515.Google Scholar
Marais, M.L., Patell, J.M. & Wolfson, M.A. (1984). The experimental design of classification models: an application of recursive partitioning and bootstrapping to commercial bank loan classification. Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement), 22, 87114.Google Scholar
Markowitz, H.M. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7, 7791.Google Scholar
Muellbauer, J. & Cameron, G. (1997). A regional analysis of mortgage possessions: causes, trends and future prospects. Housing Finance, 34, 2534.Google Scholar
Pearl, J. (1988). Probabilistic reasoning for intelligent systems. Morgan Kaufmann, Los Altos CA.Google Scholar
Redington, F.M. (1952). Review of the principles of life office valuation. J.I.A. 78, 286315.Google Scholar
Renshaw, A.E. (1995). Graduation and generalised linear models: an overview. City University, Actuarial Research Paper, 73.Google Scholar
Risk (1995). Risk, June 1995.Google Scholar
Riskmetrics Technical Document (1996). Available on the World Wide Web.Google Scholar
Rose, P.S. (1993). Commercial bank management: producing and selling financial services. Irwin, Homewood, IL.Google Scholar
Rowe, G. & Wright, G. (1993). Expert systems in insurance: a review and analysis. International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 2, 129145.Google Scholar
Smith, A.D. (1996). How actuaries can use financial economics. B.A.J. 2, 10571193.Google Scholar
Smith, A.F.M. & Roberts, G.O. (1993). Bayesian computation via the Gibbs sampler and related Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, (with discussion). J.R.S.S. Series B, 55, 324.Google Scholar
Squires, R.J. (1986). Unit linked business. Life Assurance Monograph.Google Scholar
Stanghellini, C. (1996). The management of fixed interest bond portfolios: non-parallel yield curve shifts and the use of derivatives. M.Sc. dissertation. City University.Google Scholar
Taffler, R.J. (1982). Forecasting company failures in the U.K. using discriminant analysis and financial ratio data. J.R.S.S. Series A, 145, 342358.Google Scholar
Vinas, M. (1997). Papers produced in preparation for uncompleted M.Sc. dissertation. City University.Google Scholar
Walmsley, J. (1992). The foreign exchange and money market guide. Wiley, New York, N.Y.Google Scholar
Walsh, D. & Booth, P.M. (1997). Actuarial techniques in pricing for risk in bank lending. City University Actuarial Research Paper, 100.Google Scholar
Whitely, J. ed. (1992). The ALCO, strategic issues in asset/liability management. Macmillan Press.Google Scholar
Wilkie, A.D. (1986). A stochastic model for actuarial use. T.F.A. 39, 341373.Google Scholar
Wilkie, A.D. (1995). More on a stochastic model for actuarial use. B.A.J. 1, 777945.Google Scholar
Wright, G. & Rowe, G. (1993). Expert systems in the U.K. life insurance industry: current status and future trends. International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 2, 113127.Google Scholar
Zadeh, L.A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and Control, 8, 338353.Google Scholar