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The Prospect of Mortality: England and Wales and the United States of America, 1962–1989

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

M.J. Murphy
M.J. Murphy
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
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Abstract

Forecasts of mortality are included in official population projections. The methodology and performance of British mortality forecasts is reviewed and compared with those of the United States of America in the quarter century up to 1989. The results are found to have been surprisingly poor when compared, for example, with the more widely-criticised fertility component; similar conclusions hold for other developed countries. Although the methodology has become more sophisticated over the years by using detailed information on cause of death and cohort-based approaches, this has not led to obviously better forecasts, and the time period at which the forecasts are made is more important than the method used. The particular importance of mortality assumptions in determining projected numbers of elderly people discussed.

Keywords

MortalityForecastingGreat BritainUnited States of America
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 1 , Issue 2 , 01 June 1995 , pp. 331 - 350
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1995

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