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Healthy Life Expectancy Measurement in Scotland

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

A. S. Macdonald ,
J. Straughn  and
M. Sutton
A. S. Macdonald
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, U.K., Tel: +44(0)131-451-3209, Fax: +44(0)131-451-3249, Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Health expectancy (HE) was only recently estimated for the Scottish population (Clark et al., 2004). The estimates were based on Sullivan's method, applying the morbidity prevalence in each age group to the expected number of years lived, to obtain the expected number of years lived in good health. First, we compare these estimates with a wide range of estimates in respect of the rest of the United Kingdom and the (pre-accession) countries of the European Union. We find that Scotland's HE is relatively low, especially for men. Second, we examine data comprising the responses to the 1998 Scottish Health Survey, linked to the hospital records of the respondents from 1981 to 2004, and death records from 1998 to 2004, with HE measurement in mind. Although time spent in hospital does not give a satisfactory measure of HE, the linkage presents a rare opportunity for statistical analysis of survey respondents' mortality and morbidity. We show the results of survival analyses, quantifying the effectiveness of various definitions of ‘unhealthy’ as predictors of future mortality and morbidity. The results suggest that enumerating recent serious hospital episodes might help to predict future patterns of demand for acute services.

Keywords

Health ExpectancyHospital EpisodesLife ExpectancyScottish Health Survey
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , 01 July 2006 , pp. 327 - 390
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2006

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