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Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 12 February 2009
Abstract
Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.
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- Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009
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