Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T20:49:32.073Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 February 2009

Graeme S. Halford
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia. [email protected]

Abstract

Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Halford, G. S., Cowan, N. & Andrews, G. (2007) Separating cognitive capacity from knowledge: A new hypothesis. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 11(6):236–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oaksford, M. & Chater, N. (2007) Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piaget, J. (1957) Logic and psychology. Basic Books.Google Scholar