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Implications of natural sampling in base-rate tasks

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 October 2007

Gernot D. Kleiter
Gernot D. Kleiter
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Salzburg University, A-5020 Salzburg, Austria. [email protected]
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Abstract

The hypothesis that structural properties and not frequencies per se improve base-rate sensitivity is supported from the perspective of natural sampling. Natural sampling uses a special frequency format that makes base-rates redundant. Unfortunately, however, it does not allow us to empirically investigate human understanding of essential properties of uncertainty – most importantly, the understanding of conditional probabilities in Bayes' Theorem.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , June 2007 , pp. 270 - 271
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2007

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