Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T07:12:53.706Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Simple Parametric Model for Rating Automobile Insurance or Estimating IBNR Claims Reserves

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 August 2014

Thomas Mack*
Affiliation:
Munich Re, Munich, FRG
*
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Königinstr. 107, D-8000 München 40, FRG.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

It is shown that there is a connection between rating in automobile insurance and the estimation of IBNR claims amounts because automobile insurance tariffs are mostly cross-classified by at least two variables (e.g. territory and driver class) and IBNR claims run-off triangles are always cross-classified by the two variables accident year and development year. Therefore, by translating the most well-known automobile rating methods into the claims reserving situation, some known and some unknown claims reserving methods are obtained. For instance, the automobile rating method of Bailey and Simon produces a new claims reserving method, whereas the model leading to the rating method called “marginal totals” produces the well-known IBNR claims estimation method called “chain ladder”. A drawback of this model is the fact that it is designed for the number of claims and not for the total claims amount for which it is usually applied.

As an alternative for both, rating and claims reserving, we describe a simple but realistic parametric model for the total claims amount which is based on the Gamma distribution and has the advantage of providing the possibility of assessing the goodness-of-fit and calculating the estimation error. This method is not very well known in automobile insurance—although a satisfactory application is reported—and seems to be completely unknown in the field of claims reserving, although its execution is nearly as simple as that of the chain ladder method.

Type
Workshop
Copyright
Copyright © International Actuarial Association 1991

References

REFERENCES

Albrecht, P. (1983) Parametric Multiple Regression Risk Models. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 49–66, 69–73 and 113117.Google Scholar
Bailey, R.A. (1963) Insurance Rates with Minimum Bias. Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, 411.Google Scholar
Bailey, R.A. and Simon, L. J. (1960) Two Studies in Automobile Insurance Rate Making. ASTIN Bulletin 1, 192217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chang, L. and Fairley, W.B. (1979) Pricing Automobile Insurance under Multivariate Classification of Risks: Additive versus Multiplicative. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 7598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Vylder, F. (1978) Estimation of IBNR Claims by Least Squares. Mitteilungen der Vereinigung Schweizerischer Versicherungsmathematiker, 249254.Google Scholar
Jee, B. (1989) A Comparative Analysis of Alternative Pure Premium Models in the Automobile Risk Classification System. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 434459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jung, J. (1968) On Automobile Insurance Ratemaking. ASTIN Bulletin 5, 4148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kremer, E. (1982) IBNR-Claims and the Two-way Model of ANOVA. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 4755.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kremer, E. (1985) Einführung in die Versicherungsmathematik. Vandenhoek & Ruprecht, Göttingen.Google Scholar
Mack, Th. (1990) Improved Estimation of IBNR Claims by Credibility Theory. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 5157.Google Scholar
Richter, H. (1966) Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie. Springer, Heidelberg.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sant, D. T. (1980) Estimating Expected Losses in Auto Insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 133151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, G.C. (1986) Claims Reserving in Non-life Insurance. North Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
ter Berg, P. (1980) On the loglinear Poisson and Gamma model. ASTIN Bulletin 11, 3540.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Eeghen, J. (1981) Loss Reserving Methods. Nationale-Nederlanden N.V., Rotterdam.Google Scholar
van Eeghen, J., Greup, E. K. and Nijssen, J.A. (1983) Rate Making. Nationale-Nederlanden N.V., Rotterdam.Google Scholar
van Eeghen, J., Nijssen, J.A. and Ruygt, F.A.M. (1982) Interdependence of Risk Factors: Application of Some Models. New Motor Rating Structure in the Netherlands, 105–119. ASTIN-groep, Nederland.Google Scholar
Zehnwirth, B. (1989) The Chain Ladder Technique — A Stochastic Model. Claims Reserving Manual Vol. 2, 2–9. Institute of Actuaries, London.Google Scholar