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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 March 2025
The past year or so has been a time of particularly vigorous volcanic activity in Japan, or at least activity that has intruded into public awareness. Perhaps most dramatic was the deadly eruption of Mt. Ontake on September 27, 2014, whose 57 fatalities were the first volcano-related deaths in Japan since 1991. On May 29, 2015, Mt. Shindake, off the southern tip of Kyushu, erupted violently, forcing the evacuation of the island of Kuchinoerabu. That same day, Sakurajima, located just north in Kagoshima Bay, erupted more forcefully than usual. Sakurajima has been erupting in some fashion almost continuously since 1955, but since 2006, its activity has become relatively more vigorous. Indeed, a May 30 Asahi shinbun article characterized these eruptions as “the latest ominous sign that the Earth's crust around the archipelago is getting restless.” The article argued that the twentieth century was an anomaly in that volcanic activity throughout Japan was relatively subdued, whereas the more vigorous activity of recent years is closer to the long-term normal pattern.
1 “Greater volcanic activity in Japan looks like the new norm,” The Asahi Shinbun, May 30, 2015.
2 For a typical example of how Kimura's claims have been reported in the popular media, see “‘Mt. Fuji Should Erupt by 2015‘: Ryukyu University Professor Emeritus,” Rocket News 24, January 8, 2013.
3 Brenguier, F. Campillo, M., Takeda, T., Aoki, Y., Shapiro, N.M., Briand, X., Emoto, K., & Miyake, H., “Mapping pressurized volcanic fluids from induced crustal seismic velocity dropsm,” Science, Volume 345, Issue 6192 (July 4, 2014): 80-82. DOI: 10.1126/science.1254073.
4 See here (accessed 7-13-2015).
5 See “A Second Look at Nuclear Power,” in Issues in Science and Technology (Spring 2005).
6 See, for example, Nassrine Azimi, “Japan's Natural Perils, and Promises, in the Wake of Fukushima,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 43, No. 1, October 27, 2014, especially the first several paragraphs. For a specific linking of Mt. Fuji and the plant at Hamaoka, see Akio Matsumura, “Japan's Fault: The Risks of Mt. Fuji's Eruption and Nuclear Power.” July 31, 2013.
7 The original reporting includes “Genpatsu: Kazangakusha ‘kyodai funka, risuku’ Hokkaidō • Tomari nado eikyōdai—Mainichi shinbun ankeeto,” Mainichi Shinbun, December 23, 2013, Tokyo edition and “Kurōzuappu 2013: Kyodai funka, genpatsu no rinku hassei hindo hikuku, yosoku konnan okoseba ‘higai jindai,‘ Mainichi Shinbun, Decenber 23, 2013, Tokyo edition.
8 To cite but one of the many examples, see “Japanese volcanologists say several nuclear power plants at risk if major eruptions happen,” Japan Daily Press, December 24, 2013.
9 C. B Connor, R. S. J. Sparks, M. Díez, A. C. M. Volentik and S. C. P. Pearson, “The Nature of Volcanism,” in Charles. B. Connor, Neil A. Chapman, and Laura J. Connor, eds., Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities (Cambridge University Press, 2009), 94-95.
10 Connor, et al., “The Nature of Volcanism,” 97.
11 For example, see Kazue Suzuki, “Japan's Plan to Restart Nuke Plants Ignores Lessons Learned From Fukushima,” in Ecowatch, July 16, 2014.
12 The KamLAND Collaboration, “Partial radiogenic heat model for Earth revealed by geoneutrino measurements,” Nature Geoscience 4, 647–651 (July, 2011), doi:10.1038/ngeo1205.
13 UCL Volcano Co2 Group, “Sakurajima” accessed 715-2015).
14 “Tsūzoku jishin monogatari” (jō), Yomiuri shinbun, November 19, 1915, morning edition, 5.
15 Report quoted in Musha Kinkichi, Jishin namazu (Akashi shoten, 1995), 76-77.
16 Shimamura Hideki. Nihonjin ga shiritai jishin no gimon rokujūroku: jishin ga ōi Nihon dakara koso chishiki no sonae mo wasurezu ni (Soft Bank Creative, 2008), 90-92.
17 David Rothery, Volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis (McGraw-Hill, 2007), 60.
18 “Volcano Hazards including Lahars,” (accessed 7-17-2015).
19 For example, in addition to some of the items cited previously, see David Wolman, “Mt. Fuji Overdue for an Eruption, Experts Warn,” National Geographic News, July 17, 2006; Martin Frid, “What Will You Do If Mt Fuji Erupts?” Treehugger, December 15, 2008; F. Brenguier, et. al., “Mapping pressurized volcanic fluids from induced crustal seismic velocity drops,” Science, Vol. 345, Issue 6192 (July 4, 2014), 80; Lily Kuo, “What would happen if Mount Fuji erupted for the first time in 307 years?” in Quartz, July 17, 2014; Sara Gates, “Mount Fuji Is In A ‘Critical State’ And Could Be Ready To Blow, Researchers Say,” The Huffington Post, July 17 [updated July 24], 2014; “New evacuation plan for Mount Fuji eruption calls for 1.2 million to flee,” Japan Times, February 6, 2014.
20 Major earthquakes usually happen without any warning. The earth suddenly shakes. Even in cases where there are foreshocks in the weeks, days, or hours before a main shock, there is no way to know at the time whether a relatively small earthquake is the main shock of its own event, an aftershock of some past event, or a foreshock of a future event. By contrast, a well-known set of changes usually, but not always, takes place over the course of days, weeks, or (often) months prior to the occurrence of a large eruption. Traditional monitoring methods include strategically positioned seismometers, measurements of ground deformation, and the monitoring the quantity and qualities of certain volatiles. Increases in the frequency of small earthquakes around the magma chamber(s), increased ground swelling, and increased quantity of gas emitted (as well as changes in the qualities of the gas) are all classic signs that magma is expanding. Typically, this expansion plays out over enough time for people nearby to evacuate safely.
21 Several of the many examples of middle region problems Warren proposed are: “How can one explain the behavior pattern of an organized group of persons such as a labor union, or a group of manufacturers, or a racial minority? There are clearly many factors involved here, but it is equally obvious that here also something more is needed than the mathematics of averages. With a given total of national resources that can be brought to bear, what tactics and strategy will most promptly win a war, or, better: what sacrifices of present selfish interest will most effectively contribute to a stable, decent, and peaceful world?” Warren Weaver, “Science and Complexity,” American Scientist, 36: 536-544, 1948. (reprint edition, p. 5).
22 For many examples, some specific to Japan, see Charles. B. Connor, Neil A. Chapman, and Laura J. Connor, eds., Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities (Cambridge University Press, 2009).
23 Wilson, T.M., et al. “Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure.” J. Phys. Chem. Earth (2011), doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2011.06.006.
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