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The Unprecedented Shift in Japan's Population: Numbers, Age, and Prospects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

Vaclav Smil
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Three recent statistical releases have led me to revisit the future of Japan's population. On December 20, 2006 the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR) published its latest long-range forecast of the country's population that showed, once again, a faster decline than previously anticipated: the medium variant projects the total population of only about 90 million (89.93) people by 2055, the figure that both Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun found “shocking”. On March 13, 2007 the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) revealed the latest revision of its official long-range population estimates and projections with detailed forecasts for all of the world's countries up to the year 2050. And on March 22, 2007 the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications published its latest nationwide estimate of Japan's population.

Type
Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 5 , Issue 4 , April 2007 , e15
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Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2007

References

Notes

[1] This projection will be eventually posted on the NIPSSR website. It is now available only in a journal article in Japanese: Kaneko, R. et al. 2007. Population projection for Japan: 2006-2055, with Long - range Population Projections: 2056-2105. Jinko mondai kenkyu (Journal of Population Problems 63(1): 29-71. For the reaction see: Foreign Press Center Japan. Projection of a 30% population drop by 2055 alarms Japan. December 25, 2006.

[2] United Nations Population Division (UNPD). 2007. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. New York: UNPD.

[3] Population in 2006 hovers around 128 million. Japan Today, March 27, 2007.

[4] Preliminary results of the October 1, 2005 census showed the total of 127.76 million.

[5] Ogawa, N. and R.D. Retherford. 1993. The resumption of fertility decline in Japan: 1973-92. Population and Development Review 19:703-741.

[6] Institute of Population Problems. 1992. Population Projections for Japan: 1991-2090. Tokyo: Ministry of Health and Welfare.

[7] OECD. 2004. Ageing and Employment Policies – Italy. Paris: OECD.

[8] UNPD. 2005. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. New York: UNPD.

[9] National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR). 2002. Population Projections for Japan: 2001-2050. Tokyo: NIPSSR.

[10] In 1950 Japan had the world's fifth largest population (China, India, USSR, USA, Japan). In 2007 its population was surpassed by those of China (1329 million), India (1169), USA (306), Indonesia (232), Brazil (192), Pakistan (164), Bangladesh (159), Nigeria (148) and Russia (142 million). By 2050 the countries ahead of Japan will also include Congo, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam.

[11] Depopulation of rural Japan is already starkly evident not only in regions remote from major cities where entire villages are nearing abandonment and where shrinking population forces municipalities to merge in order to boost their tax base: a few years ago I was offered (if I agreed to move in) a large, well-built house on a wooded slope overlooking a lovely valley in a small village only a little more than one hour north of Kyoto that had already lost its post office, its elementary school and all but a score of its aging inhabitants. See also: Onishi, N. “Aging and official abandonment carries a Japanese village to extinction.” Japan Focus japanfocus.org/products/details/2003

[12] Past population totals are taken from: NIPSSR. 2006. Population Statistics of Japan 2006. Tokyo: NIPSSR. (this is a massive 20.9 Mb file). In 1964, the year of Tokyo Olympics and of the first shinkansen, Japan had 97 million people, and the count topped 100 million three years later.

[13] Retherford, R.D., N. Ogawa and R. Matsukara. 2001. Late marriage and less marriage in Japan. Population and Development Review 27: 65-102.

[14] Gondo, Y. et al. 2006. Functional status of centenarians in Tokyo, Japan: Developing better phenotypes of exceptional longevity. Journals of Gerontology Series A - Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 61(3):305-310.

[15] Coulmas, F. 2007. Population Decline and Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences. New York: Routledge; MacKellar, L. et al. 2004. The Economic Impacts of Population Ageing in Japan. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar; Okamoto, A. 2004. Tax Policy for Aging Societies: Lessons from Japan. New York: Springer-Verlag; Traphagan, J.W. and J. Knight, eds. 2003. Demographic Change and the Family in Japan's Aging Society. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press. See also: Masaki, H. 2006. Japan stares into a demographic abyss. Japan Focus