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Trump and China: The Rocky Road Ahead

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

Mel Gurtov
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Abstract

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China's consistent message to the U.S. since Donald Trump 's election is the need for deeper cooperation. But Trump and his hawkish advisers and Congressmembers seem bent on a trade war and closer ties to Taiwan. His strategy is that once the Middle East and Ukraine are “solved,” he will be positioned to force Xi Jinping's hand. But the Chinese have options for dealing with U.S. economic pressure. Still, Trump might bargain on U.S. security ties if he can get a deal on trade. The most likely outcome is more tension in U.S.-China relations and a further drift toward Cold War-era competition.

Keywords

U.S.-China relationsTrump's China policyChinese views of U.S.Trade warTaiwanU.S. Congress views of ChinaU.S. public opinion
Type
Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 22 , Issue 12 , December 2024 , e1
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2024

References

Notes

1 “Stabilizing China-US Relations Fits with the Two Countries’ Common Interests,” Renmin ribao, November 8, 2024.

2 As Xi reportedly said to Biden at their final meeting: “The Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China's path and system, and China's development right are four red lines for China. They must not be challenged.” “President Xi Jinping Meets U.S. President Joe Biden in Lima,” https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfaeng/xw/zyxw/202411/t20241117 11527672.html?s=09.

3 Rishi Iyengar, “U.S.-China Commission Report Anticipates Escalating Tech and Trade War,” Foreign Policy, November 19, 2024, https://foreign-policy.com/2024/11/19/us-china-commission-report-biden-trump-xi-jinping/.

4 The same poll also found the lowest level of positive feelings toward China since the question was asked in 1978: 26 out of 100 people (https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/american-views-chi-na-hit-all-time-low). A Chinese poll conducted by Tsinghua University reported comparably negative attitudes toward the U.S., with 88 percent of respondents saying U.S. policy is to “contain China's development” and 48 percent saying that U.S. policy is “trying to conduct peaceful evolution in China” (https://ciss.tsinghua.edu.cn/uploadfiles/atta/1727662169826_AD.pdf).

5 Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2024.

6 “Partnership or Rivalry? Prospects for a Reset in US-China Relations,” Global Asia, vol. 19, no. 3 (September, 2024), pp. 54-63.