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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
23rd November 2011 was the first anniversary of the artillery exchange between the two Koreas around the island of Yeonpyeong off the west coast of Korea. The artillery battle in 2010 was the first such since the Korean War armistice and brought the peninsula to a state of heightened tension. With the Lee Myungbak administration mulling an invasion of the North in the event of a collapse of the DPRK, a local conflict could easily explode into war. The last year has seen a lopsided arms race with South Korea dramatically increasing its military capabilities on a scale the North cannot match. The South Korean military are under American ‘wartime’ control, and since for technical reasons as well they cannot engage in war without US support, the Americans would be automatically involved in any war. A US-ROK invasion of the DPRK would almost certainly force China to intervene, as it did in 1950. A second Sino-US war would have calamitous, consequences.
1 Tim Beal, “Korean Brinkmanship, American Provocation, and the Road to War: the manufacturing of a crisis,” The Asia-Pacific Journal 8, no. 51:1 (2010).
2 Mark Landler, “U.S. Is Not Trying to Contain China, Clinton Says,” New York Times, 14 January 2011.
3 Because of the obvious parallels with Germany, nordpolitik is often used as a label for South Korea's policy towards the North. See for instance Robert Oppenheim, “Introduction to the JAS Mini-Forum ”Regarding North Korea“,” Journal of Asian Studies 70, no. 2 (2011). However, this use of German should not obscure the considerable differences between the two situations.
4 This is covered in detail in my book Tim Beal, Crisis in Korea: America, China, and the risk of war (London: Pluto, 2011).
5 Jon M. Van Dyke, Mark J. Valencia, and Jenny Miller Garmendia, “The North/South Korea Boundary Dispute in the Yellow (West) Sea,” Marine Policy 27, no. 2 (2003); Jon Van Dyke, “The Maritime Boundary between North & South Korea in the Yellow (West) Sea,” 38 North, 29 July 2010.
6 “Press conference on issue of MDL at West Sea of Korea,” KCNA, 26 August 1999.
7 Daniel Ten Kate and Peter S. Green, “Defending Korea Line Seen Contrary to Law by Kissinger Remains U.S. Policy,” Bloomberg, 17 December 2010; Henry Kissinger, “Cable to US embassy, Seoul,” State Department, February 1975; Francis Underhill, “DEFUSING WESTERN COASTAL ISLAND SITUATION,” State Department, December 1973; Joint State/Defense message, “ROKG LEGAL MEMORANDUM ON NORTHWEST COASTAL INCIDENTS (Cable to US embassy Seoul),” State Department, 22 December 1973.
8 International Crisis Group, “North Korea: The Risks of War in the Yellow Sea,” Asia Report N°198 (2010).
9 “Full Text of Inter-Korean Agreement,” Korea TImes, 4 October 2007.
10 “Gov't Mulls Turning Baeknyeong into Forward Deployment Base ”, Chosun Ilbo, 30 November 2010.
11 Soon-hyuk Lee, “Costly reinforcement heightens tensions on Yeonpyeong Island,” Hankyoreh, 22 November 2011.
12 This is covered in some detail in Beal, “Korean Brinkmanship, American Provocation, and the Road to War: the manufacturing of a crisis.”
13 “Panmunjom Mission of KPA Sends Notice to U.S. Forces Side,” KCNA, 25 November 2010.
14 John Kim, “The Artillery Duel in Korea: Missing facts and historical context in the military clash of Nov. 23,” Korea Policy Institute, 18 March 2011.
15 Nam Kim, “Korea on the Brink: Reading the Yonp'yong Shelling and its Aftermath,” Journal of Asian Studies 70, no. 2 (2011).
16 Tetsuo Kotani, “Tip of the Spear: the 13 Missions for US Marines in Okinawa,” PacNet 43(2010).
17 “Statement Released by Spokesman of DPRK Foreign Ministry ”, KCNA, 24 November 2010.
18 Martin Hart-Landsberg, “What's Happening On The Korean Peninsula?,” Global Research, 4 January 2011.
19 “Spies Intercepted Plans for Yeonpyeong Attack in August ”, Chosun Ilbo, 2 December 2010; Hyung-jin Kim, “SKoreans dismissed intel North might attack island,” Washington Post, 2 December 2010.
20 The Wikipedia entry on the Northern Limit Lines gives 53 dead on the North and 54 of the South, but the latter seems to include the 46 on the Cheonan; “Northern Limit Line,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Limit_Line.
21 “Lee Blasts N.Korea's ‘Inhumane’ Attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” Chosun Ilbo, 30 November 2010.
22 “S. Korea remembers island shelling in solemn ceremony,” Yonhap, 24 November 2011.
23 “Two civilians found dead on S. Korean island shelled by N. Korea,” Yonhap, 24 November 2010.
24 Hyo-sik Lee, “Families of Yeonpyeong civilian victims want national merits,” Korea Times, 1 December 2010.
25 “Extent of NK damage remains uncertain,” Chosun Ilbo, 26 November 2010; “Military suggests counterfire caused ‘many casualties’ in N. Korea ”, Yonhap, 2 December 2010; Sungki Jung, “Satellite image shows damages in NK artillery site,” Korea Times, 2 December 2010.
26 “Bombardment of Yeonpyeong,” Wikipedia, link.
27 “Kim Jong Il Inspects KPA Large Combined Unit Command,” KCNA, 25 November 2011.
28 “KPA Supreme Command Warns S. Korean Military Not to Act Rashly,” KCNA, 24 November 2011.
29 John Hardy, “The Value in High Value Targeting,” Pynx, 23 September 2011; Michael Davies, “High Value Targeting - Organization Vs. Leadership,” Pynx, 30 October 2011.
30 Ben Richardson and Saeromi Shin, “South Korea Faces Domestic Skeptics Over Evidence Against North,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 29 May 2010; “Most S.Koreans Skeptical About Cheonan Findings, Survey Shows,” Chosun Ilbo, 8 September 2010.
31 Chi-dong Lee, “Main opposition heading for stunning victory in local elections,” Yonhap, 3 June 2010; Cheong-mo Yoo, “Election defeat casts gloom over Lee administration, ruling party,” Yonhap, 3 June 2010.
32 Peter Beck, “North Korea in 2010: Provocations and Succession,” Asian Survey 51, no. 1 (2011).
33 “South Korea: The Shifting Sands of Security Policy,” International Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°130 1 December 2011.
34 Jin-man Lee, “SKorea flaunts firepower year after NKorean attack,” Associated Press, 23 November 2011.
35 “Massive Military Drill Marks Yeonpyeong Attack Anniversary,” Chosun Ilbo, 23 November 2011.
36 Won-je Son, “Military prepares for exercises near N.Korean border,” Hankyoreh, 23 November 2011.
37 “Military drill planned on anniversary of Yeonpyeong shelling,” Yonhap, 23 November 2011.
38 “KPA Supreme Command Warns S. Korean Military Not to Act Rashly.”
39 “KPA Supreme Command: World Should Know Who Is Provoker,” KCNA, 20 December 2010.
40 Lee, “Costly reinforcement heightens tensions on Yeonpyeong Island.”
41 “S.Korean Navy Says New Base Will Not Host U.S. Military Vessels,” Chosun Ilbo, 6 October 2011; Noam Chomsky, “The Threat of Warships on an ”Island of World Peace“,” Truthout.org, 7 October 2011.
42 “Supersonic Cruise Missile in Development,” Chosun Ilbo, 17 August 2011.
43 Tae-hoon Lee, “Korea to purchase 170 stealth cruise missiles next year,” Korea Times, 6 December 2011; ———, “Seoul to deploy 150 bunker busters,” Korea Times, 7 December 2011.
44 “N. Korea adds more tanks, artillery guns to arsenal,” Korea Times, 18 September 2011.
45 “N.Korea Desperately Seeking Cutting-Edge Weaponry,” Chosun Ilbo, 29 August 2011.
46 Duk-Ki Kim, “The Republic of Korea's Counter-Asymmetric Strategy: Lessons from ROK's Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island,” Naval War College Review 65, no. 1 (2011).
47 “Korea Remains World's 3rd Biggest Arms Importer,” Chosun Ilbo, 8 December 2011.
48 World Development Indicators 2010, (Washington: World Bank, 2010).
49 Lee, “Costly reinforcement heightens tensions on Yeonpyeong Island.”
50 For a photo of them practising such a thing, in a joint exercise with the Americans, see the cover of Crisis in Korea
51 Simon Tisdall, “Wikileaks cables reveal China ‘ready to abandon North Korea’,” Guardian, 29 November 2010; Christian Oliver and Geoff Dyer, “China could accept Korean unification,” Financial Times, 30 November 2010; “Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020 ”, Chosun Ilbo, 4 November 2011; “Reunified Korea Would Be a Better Partner for Russia, China,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 November 2011.
52 Michael T. Klare, “Playing with fire: Obama's threat to China ” Al Jazeera, 10 December 2011; Willy Lam, “China pitches a fork at invading ‘Pacific President’,” Asia Times Online, 8 December 2011.
53 James Dobbins et al., “Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence,” Rand Corporation, 10 October 2011; Yuan Luo and Robert M. Farley, “Sino-US war unlikely but not impossible ” Global Times, 15 November 2011; “Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012,” Center for Preventive Action, Council on Foreign Relations, 8 December 2011.
54 I am grateful for the valuable comments of JJ Suh and Mark Selden for this revision, and to Ankie Hoogvelt, Don Borrie, and Peter Wilson for proofreading the original
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