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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 March 2025
Japan in late 2021 faces two important elections - in September for presidency of the Liberal-Democratic Party (and de facto Prime Minister) and in October for Lower House of the Diet. This paper argues that Kishida Fumio, victorious in the former and to contest the latter on 31 October, offers little prospect of change. His government includes the same key figures as the Abe and Suga governments of 2012-2021 and is likely to continue the same US-led anti-China policies, marked by substantial military expansion and multi-national military exercises drawing to the East China Sea warships of major countries including not only the United States but also Great Britain, France, Australia, even Germany. This paper considers current trends and, while suggesting that significant change is not probable, nevertheless draws attention to a citizen-led challenge that could cause upset to the long-established LDP-dominated order.
1 “Jiminto ni shogeki no chosa kekka! Shugiin ‘60 giseki gen’ de masaka no kahansu ware,” Nikkan gendai, 25 August 2021.
2 “Japan's new leader, Suga Yoshihide, will maintain the old regime,” Jacobin, September 2020
3 Jiji seron chosa, “Naikaku shiji 32.2%, hossoku irai saitei,” 14 May 2021
4 The voting rate in the October 2017 Lower House election was 53.68, and in the Upper House election in July 2019 48.8 per cent.
5 Mainichi shinbun poll of 19 September and Kyodo poll of 17-18 September.
6 For a perceptive comment on this election see Jake Adelstein, “‘Reluctant’ Kishida to become Japan's next leader,” Asia Times, September 29, 2021.
7 Following US, Russia, China, and India, and surpassing France, UK, Germany etc. Global Firepower, “2021 Global Military Strength,” March 2021.
8 Motoko Rich, “Japan's been proudly pacifist for 75 years. A missile proposal changes that,” New York Times, 16 August 2020.
9 As noted in the SDF journal Asagumo, and reported by military affairs critic Maeda Toshio, “Higashi Ajia INF joyaku to iu reariti,” Sekai, September 2021, pp. 148-157, at p. 151.
10 US Pacific Fleet, Public Affairs, “Sword 21 embraces US-Japan exchange,” 6 November 2020.
11 Martine Bulard, “Is an Asian NATO imminent?” Le Monde Diplomatique, June 2021.
12 Alex Wilson, “Three aircraft carriers train together near Okinawa as China ramps up pressure on Taiwan,” Stars and Stripes, 4 October 2021.
13 “Doku kantei, 11 gatsu no nihon kiko to kyodo kunren,” Sankei shimbun, 5 June 2021.
14 Terashima Jitsuro, “Noryoku no ressun,” No 192, “Chugoku no kyodaika kyokenka wo seishi suru, Nihon no kakugo,” Sekai, April 2018, pp. 42-47, at p. 42.
15 Terashima Jitsuro, “Honshitsu o miayamaru to Nihon wa beichu kankei no honro' Keizai ampo-ron otannjun na ‘Chugoku fujikome’ ni yudaneru na,” Toyo Keizai, 22 June 2021.
16 OECD, “The long view: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060.”
17 Brian Toohey, “Australia's nuclear submarine deal won't make us any safer,” Pearls and Irritations, 13 October 2021.
18 Well-known civil activist scholars, including Hosei University political scientist Yamaguchi Jiro and military affairs critic Maeda Tetsuo, play important roles in this constitutionalist front.
19 “Shugiin sosenkyo no okeru yato kyotsu seisaku no teigen,” 8 September 2021.
20 Ikegami Akira and Yamaguchi Jiro, “Yato kyoho e no kabe to senkyo kyoryoku no genkai to wa,” AERA, 18 October 2021.
21 Nogami Tadaoki, “Jiko o oitsumeru gyakuten shori ‘64 senkyoku’ yato 4 to wa kyoto kasoku, seisaku kyotei goi de ‘ukezara’ ni,” Nikkan gendai, 9 September 2021.
22 “Boeihi ‘GDP hi 2% ijo mo nento’ jimin ga seiken koyaku, chikara de no taiko jushi,” Asahi Shimbun, 12 October 2021.
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