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Nuclear Power, Risk Management and Democratic Accountability in Indonesia: Volcanic, regulatory and financial risk in the Muria peninsula nuclear power proposal

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

Arabella Imhoff ,
Richard Tanter ,
David von Hippel  and
Geoffrey Gunn
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In late 2009 Indonesia revived a proposal to build a nuclear power facility on the seismically active Muria Peninsula of north central Java over sustained civil society opposition including the voice of moderate Islam. The following assessment by Richard Tanter, Arabella Imhoff and David Von Hippel poses a range of issues about siting decisions in light of state-society relations and nuclear power feasibility. The issues are as relevant to mature democracies as to “emerging democracies,” as Indonesia is now sometimes styled. Muria poses formidable challenges to Indonesian democracy while posing equally important questions about the nation's developmental trajectory.

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Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 7 , Issue 51 , December 2009 , e1
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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
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Copyright © The Authors 2009

References

Notes

1 See Mark Fitzpatrick (ed.), Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia, International Insitute for Strategic Studies, 2009. See also the resource guide in Nuclear power in ASEAN, Nautilus Institute.

2 A comprehensive and updated set of annotated resources on the Muria peninsula proposal and other Indonesian nuclear developments is available at Indonesian nuclear power proposals, Nautilus Institute. Link.

3 Tom Allard, “Yudhoyono backs down on nuclear power plans”, The Age, April 6, 2009, and K. Yudha Wirakusuma, “SBY Janji Tak Bangun PLTN di Daerah yang Ditolak” [SBY promises not to build nuclear power plant in areas with public opposition], Okezone, 5 April 2009.

4 See Richard Tanter, “Nuclear fatwa: Islamic jurisprudence and the Muria nuclear power station proposal”, Austral Policy Forum, 13 December 2007, 07-25A and Richard Tanter, Muria nuclear power plant fatwa documents - English translations, Reframing Australia-Indonesia security project, Nautilus Institute, November 2007. Link.

5 For a review of the situation with the Muria proposal at the commencement of the election campaign period, see Richard Tanter and Arabella Imhoff, “The Muria peninsula nuclear power proposal: state of play”, Austral Policy Forum 09-1A, 19 January 2009.

6 Andi Abdussalam, “News focus: Indonesia to operate nuke plant in 2016”, Antara, 23 July 2009.

7 State Research and Technology Minister Suharna Surapranata, quoted in “Nuclear program on horizon: Government”, Jakarta Post, 3 December 2009. See also “Menristek: PLTN Muria Tetap Berlanjut”, Antara, 3 December 2009.

8 “Batan Usulkan PLTN Opsi Prioritas” [BATAN proposes nuclear power plant as priority option], Antara, 25 November 2009; and “Govt not to shelve nuke power plant project”, Antara, 3 December 2009.

9 “DEN Segera Susun Pengembangan PLTN” [National Energy Council to immediately assess nuclear power], Suara Pembaruan, 24 November 2009.

10 See “Muria proposal historical materials”, Indonesian nuclear power proposals, Nautilus Institute; and “Site selection history”, Indonesian nuclear power proposals, Nautilus Institute.

11 Seminar “Nuclear Power Plant for Public Information”, Penyelenggara : Direktorat Jenderal Listrik dan Pemanfaatan Energi (DJLPE) dan Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. Ltd (KHNP), 29 Agustus 2006, Jakarta.

12 Feasibility Study of the First Nuclear Power Plant in Indonesia, NIRA-BATAN, ENELPLN, 1976-1981.

13 Feasibility Study of the First Nuclear Power Plants at Muria Peninsula, NEWJEC, 1993. Some reports suggest the Muria sites were preferred as early as 1977: “BATAN (Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional) mulai bersiap. … ‘di sebelah timur Jepara antara gunung Muria dan Lasem, ‘Jawa Tengah. Itulah lokasi pertama yang dipilih BATAN dari kelima alternatif semula, yang semuanya terletak di pantai pulau Jawa. Survainya sudah berlangsung sejak tahun lalu. Seperti dibeberkan dalam lokakarya pemilihan lokasi PLTN di Karangkates, Malang, pertengahan 1975, pemilihan lokasi PLTN tergantung pada data gempa, curah hujan, gerak angin, kepadatan penduduk, penggunaan dan iifal tanah, tata air, dan beban listrik.” “Banjir panas di teluk Rembang” [Hot flood in the Rembang gulf], Tempo, 27/VII, 3 September 1977.

14 “Expected role of nuclear science and technology to support the sustainable supply of energy in Indonesia”, Soedyartomo Soentono, Ferhat Aziz, Progress in Nuclear Energy, 50 (2008).

15 It is important to understand that the great bulk of Indonesia's greenhouse gas emissions, which put the country amongst the largest carbon polluters in the world, come not from the burning of fossil fuels in power production (presently mainly coal-and diesel-fuelled), manufacturing or transport, but from the burning of forests and peat-lands. See Pelangi Energi Abadi Citra Enviro (PEACE), Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies, World Bank and DIFID, June 2007; and Dionisius A. Narjoko and Frank Jotzo, “Survey of recent developments”, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 43:2, (2007).

16 Historical Seismicity: JAVA, INDONESIA, United States Geological Service. Link.

17 For detailed resources and analysis, see “Volcanic and seismic hazards”, Indonesian nuclear power proposals, Nautilus Institute, July 2008.

18 Alexander R. McBirney, Leonello Serva, M. Guerra, Charles B. Connor, “Volcanic and seismic hazards at a proposed nuclear power site in central Java”, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 126 (2003).

19 Ibid.

20 Ibid, p. 17.

21 “Pembangunan PLTN, Aman atau Membahayakan (1): Peringatan Dini dari Patahan Muria [Nuclear power plant development, safe or dangerous (1): Muria Fault early warning]”, Muhammadun Sanomae dan Sukardi, Suara Merdeka, 18 April 2007.

22 Ediar Usman, I Wayan Lugra, and Subatian Lubis, Offshore fault assessment: Implication to predict earthquake and tsunamigenic potential along the coastal area of Muria peninsula, Central Java, APRU/AEARU Research Symposium 2007.

23 U.S. Geological Survey, Investigation of the M6.6 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki, Japan, Earthquake of July 16, 2007, Open-File Report 2007-1365. Link.

24 Report to the Government of Japan, Follow-Up IAEA Mission in Relation to the Findings and Lessons Learned from the 16 July 2007 Earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, Engineering Safety Review Services, Seismic Safety Expert Mission, IAEA, 28 January – 1 February 2008. Link. See also the analysis of the Japanese experience and its salience to the Californian situation in Assessment Of California's Operating Nuclear Plants: Draft Report prepared for California Energy Commission, MRW & Associates, Inc., September 2008, CEC-100-2008-005-D.

25 See N. A. Chapman, H. Tsuchi and K. Kitayama, “Tectonic events and nuclear facilities”, in C.B. Connor, N.A. Chapman, and L.J. Connor (eds.), Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities, Cambridge University Press, 2009; B. E. Hill, W. P. Aspinall, C. B. Connor, J.-C. Komorowski and S. Nakada, “Recommendations for assessing volcanic hazards at sites of nuclear installations”, ibid; and D. Inoue, “Characterizing active tectonic structures for nuclear facilities in Japan”, ibid.

26 Soedyartomo Soentono, National Nuclear Power Programme Expectation to International Organisations, Special Symposium for the IAEA 50th Anniversary, April 11, 2007, Aomori, Japan.

27 In 2009 Indonesia's ranking had improved from equal 126th the year before to equal 111th amongst the world's 200-odd countries. That in itself was an improvement, and an apparently even more significant improvement over 2007, when Indonesian was ranked equal 146th with Russia, a position Russia continued to occupy in 2009. See Transparency International, 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index. Link.

28 “Dua Pejabat Bapeten Divonis Bersalah [Two Bapeten officials convicted]”, Tempo Interaktif, 22 Februari 2008; and “Mantan Anggota DPR Divonis Tiga Tahun [Former People's Representative Council member receives three years]”, Republika, 09 Mei 2008.

29 For a brief response to this situation by the current chairman of BAPETEN and his colleagues see K. Huda, B. Rohman, and A.N. Lasman, Regulatory Challenges for Indonesia in Embarking to Nuclear Power, International Conference on Effective Nuclear Regulatory Systems: Further Enhancing the Global Nuclear Safety and Security Regime, IAEA, 14 to 18 December 2009 (CN-177/20). Link.

30 Gerry van Klinken, Indonesian anti-corruption agenda falters, but perhaps other things matter more, Austral Policy Forum 09-9A, 30 March 2009. Link. See also Ross H. McLeod, “Inadequate budgets and salaries as instruments for institutionalizing public sector corruption in Indonesia”, South East Asia Research, Vol. 16, No. 2. (July 2008), pp. 199-223.

31 Norimitsu Onishi, “Corruption fighters rouse resistance in Indonesia”, New York Times, 25 July 2009.

32 For a brief summary see Tim Lindsey, “Indonesia's gecko-gate”, The Australian, 20 November 2009. See also Karishma Vaswani, “Indonesia battles with widespread corruption”, BBC News, 9 December 2009.

33 Geologists blame gas drilling for Indonesia mud disaster, PhysOrg.com (Source: Durham University), 30 October 2008. Link.

34 H. McMichael, “The Lapindo mudflow disaster: Environment, infrastructure and economic impact”, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, April 2009.

35 Jim Schiller, Anton Lucas, Priyambudi Sulistiyanto, Learning from the East Java Mudflow: Disaster Politics in Indonesia, Indonesia, Vol. 85 (April 2008), 51—78; and Jim Schiller, “Un-natural disaster”, Inside Indonesia, Jan-Mar, 2008.

36 “Indonesia's gusher of gas, mud and graft”, Asian Sentinel, 22 September 2006.

37 Statement by Soedyartomo Soentono, head of BATAN cited in “Pemerintah tak Perlu Berutang untuk Bangun PLTN Muria” [Government not obliged to go into debt for nuclear power plant development], Republika, 9 Juli 2006.

38 National Nuclear Power Programme Expectation to International Organisations, Soedyartomo Soentono, Special Symposium for the IAEA 50th Anniversary, April 11, 2007, Aomori, Japan.

39 BATAN statement cited in “3 Investor asing siap danai PLTN Muria Rp35 triliun”, Bisnis Indonesia, 12 April 2006.

40 Prospect and potential of nuclear power plants in Indonesia, I.R.Subki, Adiwardojo, M.S.Kasim, A. Iskandar, Mulyanto, (BATAN), IAEA, n.d. (Includes a summary report of the NewJEC Feasibility Study completed December 1993.) Link.

41 Annex: Small and Medium Reactor User Requirements Document: Indonesia, Guidance for preparing user requirements documents for small and medium reactors and their application, [PDF, 7.01Mb], International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA-TECDOC-1167, August 2000, p. 90. Link.

42 For a careful discussion of the confusions flowing from inclusion or exclusion of various cost elements in quoted nuclear power plant costs see Yangbo Du and John E. Parsons, Update on the Cost of Nuclear Power, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, 09-004, May 2009, especially pp. 3-8.

43 The Future of Nuclear Power: an interdisciplinary study, MIT, 2003; and 2009 Update of the MIT 2003 Future of Nuclear Power Study, MIT, and Yangbo Du and John E. Parsons, Update on the Cost of Nuclear Power, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, 09-004, May 2009. Link.

44 $350 mn. in The Future of Nuclear Power: an interdisciplinary study, MIT, 2003, Table A5.A4.

45 Asclepias R.S. Indriyanto, Bobby Tamaela Wattimena, and Fabby Victor Chandra Mulia, Overview of Indonesia's Energy Sector -Current Status and Plans for Future Development, Asian Energy Security Workshop 2007, Nautilus Institute, November 2007. Link.

46 The slogans on the village gate read “Tolak nuklir, pemusnah umat: Oppose nuclear, destroyer of the community”; “PLTN pembawa petaka: Nuclear power -the bearer of misfortune”; and “PLTN pemusnah kehidupan: Nuclear power -the destroyer of life.”

47 Details of this are unclear at the time of writing, but it is important to note that the Indonesian national energy plan already includes expansion of electricity generation from Indonesia's abundant geo-thermal resources. Whether the Copenhagen announcement will result in a substantial improvement in the limited support for geothermal power shown y the government to date remains to be seem. See Tom Arup, “Indonesia plans carbon tax, geothermal push”, Sydney Morning Herald, 8 December 2009. For more detail, see Fitrian Ardiansyah, “Road to Copenhagen: Understanding Indonesia's emission cuts inside out”, Jakarta Post, 8 December 2009.