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Nuclear Dominoes: Will North Korea Follow Libya's Lead?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

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The Libyan Foreign Ministry's December 19, 2003 “Statement” outlining its plan to “get rid of [weapons of mass destruction] materials, equipment and programs, and to become totally free of internationally banned weapons” prompted some to ponder whether North Korea might be next.{1} Will the Northeast Asian “rogue state” join the Middle East “rogue state” in renouncing its nuclear weapons programs? The Japanese weekly magazine Aera questioned whether Kim Jong Il would follow the cooperative path of Muammar Kaddafi, or continue along the confrontational, and ultimately self-destructive, path that Saddam Hussein trod.{2} In an interview with the Nikkei Press, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage held out this offer: if they chose to voluntarily end their weapons programs like Libya, North Korea “would very rapidly find herself integrated into the vibrant community of East Asia.”{3} Neither of these two statements, however, address the central fact that the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, or the threat of their production, is the lone asset that the North Korean government under U.S. threat has as a bargaining chip in its effort to survive. Like other states, North Korea and Libya respond to international developments not as part of a “rogue alliance” but on the basis of analysis of their specific interests and needs.

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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
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Copyright © The Authors 2004

References

Notes

1. The author would like to thank Mark Selden and Geoff Gunn for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper.

2. “Kaddafi ni minarai ‘k?u’ ka” [A “submission” learned from Kaddafi?”], Aera (January 12, 2004): 19-20.

3. “Armitage Urges North Korea to Follow Example of Libya on WMD.” Carried on December 24, 2003 by the United States Information, Department of State homepage (http://usembassymalaysia.org.my/wf/wf1224_armitage.html).

4. “Qaddafi's Surrender, Bush's Success,” International Herald Tribune, December 23, 2003.

5. “Libya Seeks Global Acceptance,” reprinted in the Daily Yomiuri, December 21, 2003.

6. “Blair visits Libya, Continuing a Thaw,” International Herald Tribune, March 26, 2004.

7. Libya's “Statement” appeared in the December 21, 2003 issue of the Daily Yomiuri.

8. “If the Bomb is so Easy to Make, Why Don't More Nations Have it? New York Times News of the Week in Review, January 4, 2004.

9. “U.S. Wrong on Libya, Group Says,” International Herald Tribune, March 26, 2004. The U.S. government has made this claim as late as March 15, 2004.

10. See Mitchell Reiss’ chapter on South Africa in his Bridled Ambitions: Why Countries Constrain their Nuclear Activities (Washington, D. C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1995).