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Greening trends within China's energy system: A 2019 update

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

John A. Mathews  and
Carol X. Huang
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Abstract

There is widespread concern over the scale of China's consumption of fossil fuels, and particularly over recent increases in coal burning in the electric power sector. Nevertheless it is a fact that China is greening its power sector more than blackening it. We present updated evidence that China's electric power system has been greening – in terms of capacity added from renewable (WWS) sources, growth in electricity generated from WWS sources, and investment in new generation infrastructure. We present the results for the green renewable sector (WWS), the black fossil fuel sector (thermal) and the nuclear sector (growing, but not nearly as fast as WWS). This evidence reveals that China's extreme dependence on coal and other fossil fuels is moderating, as it ramps up alternatives – particularly the generation of domestic power from renewable sources based on water, wind and sun (WWS). In short, China's energy system is diversifying: it is greening within a large and growing carbon-intensive existing system. At the same time, China has steadily increased levels of coal burning in the past two to three years – even while the green trend in domestic power generation has continued. China's level of fossil fuel investments abroad (particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative) remain a source of concern. China continues to send disconcertingly mixed messages on the energy front.

Type
Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 18 , Issue 17 , September 2020 , e3
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2020

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References

Notes

1 For our earlier contribution, see JM and XH (2017) The greening of China's energy system outpaces its further blackening: A 2017 update here.

2 See BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2020

3 Note that our results in this article refer to domestic power generation, and not to China's international power generation activities and investments in other countries' power generation via the Belt and Road Initiative. This international dimension will have to be the subject of a separate article.

4 Similar conclusions are reached by other well-informed observers. See the 2020 report by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), David Sandalow, CHINA'S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY IN CONTRASTS AND A POLICY AT A CROSSROADS.

5 The capacity factors for each source of electricity reveal efficiency levels of generation. Data for China in 2018 are reported by Yiang, Yu and Wang (2019) as: hydro 39.7%; wind 20.6% and solar PV 14.4% – as compared with capacity factors reported for the US (by EIA) as hydro 45.2; wind 36.7%; solar PV 27%. The lower capacity factors for China reflect the curtailment of renewable sources pending grid upgrades that would allow all renewable power generated to be uploaded and utilized. Source for China. Source for US.

6 See the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable energy capacity statistics 2020, here. Note the slight discrepancy between the CEC data for China's building WWS capacity in 2019 (759 GW) and IRENA data (771 GW) which include all sources of renewables.

7 China's annual investments in the total grid, covering generation as well as transmission infrastructure, has hovered around $80 billion (or 800 billion RMB) in recent years. See IEA data.

8 We thank the reviewer for pointing out that manufacturing of nuclear power plants in South Korea, China and Russia has some elements of mass production, whereas there are no such cost reductions in current European and Canadian plants. The non-OECD countries control costs by building multiple copies of a common design, not one-off versions. That's the principal reason why their costs are below those of the US and France. Indeed, back in the 1970s and 1980s, the French, Canadians and others built a lot of cheap nuclear power that way, which is why French power is still low-cost and low-carbon today.

9 See discussion by Chi and Cheng (2017).

10 For a discussion of China's reversal of the decline in coal burning, see the article by Feng Hao and Tom Baxter at China Dialogue.

11 See the Chinese original (plus Google Translate rendition in English) here.

12 The Water (hydro) projects amount to investment of $3.8 billion and cover 5 mainstream projects. The solar power project amounts to $1.5 billion – the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park Phases I and II; while there are two wind projects accounting for $0.47 billion up to 2019. The solar PV project being built in the Punjab province of Pakistan has been plagued by delays and contractual disputes.