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The Greening of China's Black Electric Power System? Insights from 2014 Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

John A. Mathews  and
Hao Tan
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Abstract

While China's energy system is still largely a “black” system depending on fossil fuel inputs, the electric power system is greening at the margins. We demonstrate, using 2014 data on additions to China's electric power system, that the system is greening– with powerful implications for the future of the country's energy profile. We utilize three lines of argument: first, utilizing data for electric energy generated, where we show that China actually generated less energy from thermal sources in 2014 than in 2013, while increasing generation from water, wind and solar; second, examining capacity additions, we show that new capacity in water, wind and solar (WWS) exceeded new capacity for thermal; and third, in terms of investment. We argue that such data rebut claims made that China is getting blacker while its greening efforts remain small and insubstantial, or that China will become dependent on nuclear power rather than hydro, wind and solar as it cleans its energy system.

Keywords

Chinarenewable electric powerwindsolarnuclearthermalUnder the Dome
Type
Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 13 , Issue 11 , March 2015 , e2
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2015

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References

Notes

1 See Armond Cohen, Feb 18 2015, “No China coal peak in sight: carbon capture will be necessary to tame emissions in this century”, Clean Energy Task Force.

2 This is an argument used frequently by US climate scientist James Hansen, in Congressional testimony. See for example his testimony on 13 March 2014 before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

3 See the briefing released by the China Electricity Council on 2 Feb 2015 (in Chinese)

4 See Matthew Kahn, “Fueling the future”, Science, 16 Jan 2015, where he states “China uses [coal] to generate roughly 80% of its electricity” – an assertion sourced to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

5 For commentary on this ND&RC statement, see “China, US look to boost solar and wind capacity”, Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 19 May 2014.

6 Given the lack of data for the investment in solar power projects, the proportion of investment in renewables-based on electricity generation is calculated as a residual of the total investment on electricity generation in China and the investment on fossil fuels-based projects.