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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
This paper documents the fact that distributed power is a rapidly expanding and quickly evolving market with important implications for Japanese and global energy futures. It also shows that Japan has an excellent opportunity to grow a robust and sustainable business area that includes primary, secondary and tertiary industries. Distributed power can improve equity, local resilience, and build a more competitive export sector. But Japan may be handicapped by Galapagos features as well as the capacity of vested interests to block progress in power deregulation and other aspects that favour the diffusion of distributed power and efficiency. These handicaps may become even more pronounced after the December 16 general election, which is shaping up to be - at least in part - a contest over whether to stick with centralized power in the hands of Tepco and other giant utilities or accelerate the distribution of opportunities. The election seems likely to bring on even worse political confusion and gridlock than Japan endures at present, which will almost certainly advantage the status quo.
1 The merger of information technology, energy and biotech is especially evident in the emergence of the so-called bioeconomy, which the EU is aiming at to help achieve sustainable reduction of its dependence on fossil fuels not just for fuel but as inputs into such materials as plastic, medicines, fertilizers, and the like. The bioeconomy has been assessed at 9% of EU employment (22 million jobs) and EURO 2 trillion in economic output. On this, see European Commission, “Bioeconomy - ensuring smart green growth for Europe,” no date: here
2 On the role and benefits of local ownership of power-production in Germany, Denmark and elsewhere, see Stephen Lacey, “Why Local Ownership of Renewable Energy Projects Matters, in One Simple Chart,” Climate Progress, June 7, 2012: here
3 See the Nikkei BP English-language version of the September 27, 2010 release of their report at: here
4 The Fuji Keizai assessment also projects global smart community projects to increase from ¥16.332 trillion in 2011 to ¥40.555 trillion by 2020
5 On this see, “Rebuilding Eco “Future Cities” in Tohoku”: here
6 See (in Japanese) “Tokyo's Power Generation Plan is Aimed at “Blowing a Hole” In Tepco,” in Zakzak, July 3, 2012: ZakZak here
7 Figures compiled by author, from local and national budgets.
8 For example, in his “Not enough land for solar,” in the November 2012 edition of The Oriental Economist, the very astute student of Japanese power markets, Paul Scalise, expresses concern about the “need for government subsidies in the form of a feed-in tariff” (p 11).
9 An excellent summary discussion of Japan's feed-in tariff and charts of the price schedules and other features can be found at Eric Johnston, “A Guide to Japan's New Feed-in Tariff,” Fresh Currents, August 23, 2012: here
10 For a succinct explanation of these items, see Eric Johnston, “New feed-in tariff system a rush to get renewables in play,” Japan Times, May 29, 2012: here 1
11 On this, see “Germany - 26% of Electricity from Renewable Energy in 1st Half of 2012”: here
12 On this, see the very cogent analysis by Gerard Wynn, “German power generation moving against utilities,” Reuters, November 27, 2012: here
13 Among the evidence is the accelerating pace of ice melt. See Joe Romm, “Science Stunner: Greenland Ice Melt Up Nearly Five-Fold Since Mid-1990s, Antarctica's Ice Loss Up 50% in Past Decade,” Climate Progress, November 30, 2012: here
14 An example of the debate is seen in Phil Carson, “Utilities and us: towards an energy ‘ecosystem,’“ Intelligent Utility, November 8, 2012: here
15 On this, see “US Department of Defense & Renewable Energy: An Industry Helping the Military Meet its Strategic Energy Objectives,” ACORE, January 2012: here
16 See Keith Johnson, “Navy Biofuel Plan Gets Senate Support,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2012: here
17 A concise summary of the approach can be found at Paul Krebs, “Department of Defense Makes Waves in the Renewable Energy Industry,” Energy Acuity Blog, October 3, 2012: here
18 On this, see “Are the Services Considering Nuclear Energy?” Defense Communities, August 9, 2012: here
19 The agency's home page is: here
20 On this, see Andrew DeWit, “Japan, the Pentagon, and the Future of Renewable Energy: Battle Lines Form,” Japan Focus, March 4, 2012: here
21 A prominent example of the latter is IHS CERA, perhaps the premier association of conventional energy, as is evident from its website: here
22 The Agency announced on February of 2012 that it would produce an annual market forecast of renewable energy to complement its reports on conventional fuels. The IEA has long embodied a profound bias to conventional energy, yet even it has recognized that renewable energy “is now the fastest growing sector in the energy mix and accounts for almost one-fifth of all electricity produced worldwide.” See Erica Gies “International Energy Agency (Finally) Acknowledges Ascent of Renewable Energy,” February 28, Forbes: here
23 An amusing and very instructive account of the IEA and other agencies’ bias in energy projections can be found at David Roberts, “Why do ‘experts’ always lowball clean-energy projections?”, Grist, July 1, 2012: here
24 The Energy Watch Group's roots and mission are described in its August 2010 publication, “Energy Policy Needs Objective Information, Objectivity Needs Independent Financing”: here
25 For example, see the summary of the Energy Watch Group's January 2009 blistering critique of the IEA's projections of wind power, in James Murray “IEA accused of ‘deliberately’ undermining global renewables industry,” Business Green, January 12, 2009: here
26 IRENA was largely inspired by the now- deceased German parliamentarian and energy expert Hermann Scheer. His comments on IRENA's founding can be found at: here
27 After the flood of exuberant expectations that America would become a net oil exporter by 2017, more knowledgeable and critical observers have begun rendering detailed critiques. One of the best is Kjell Aleklett, “An Analysis of World Energy Outlook 2012,” Energy Bulletin, November 29, 2012: here. Among the items Aleklett highlights is the fact that the IEA's 2004 outlook saw Saudi Arabia producing 22.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, but now projects a mere 10.8 million barrels per day by 2025.
28 Indeed, one of the principal organizers of the coalition of interests that helped push back opposition to biofuels was retired Marine Corps Lt General Richard C. Zilmer. Zilmer was the front-line commander in Iraq's al Anbar province who in 2006 requested renewable energy and helped accelerate the green shift in the military. On this, see Geoffrey Ingersoll “The Strongest Argument for Renewable Energy Comes From the US Military,” Business Insider, September 25, 2012: here
29 The figure is from Herman K Trabish “The Water-Energy Nexus and Our Infrastructure Gap,” Green Tech Media, February 16, 2012: here
30 The figure is from Tascha Eichenseher “Clean Energy the Solution to Western US Water Woes,” National Geographic, July 26, 2010: here
31 On this, see Stockholm Environmental Institute, “New version of SEI's water planning software links easily to energy tool for nexus analyses, adds IWMI environmental flow assessment module,” September 5, 2012: here
32 See, for example, (in Japanese) Mizutani Akio “Development towards International Standards Requires Policy Back-up,” Toyo Keizai, November 22, 2012, pp. 34-37. Some very good work is also available (in Japan) from Takahashi Hiroshi, Research Fellow at Fujitsu and a major figure in policy advice. See for example his English abstract: “Lessons on Smart Grids from Scandinavia,” Fujitsu Research No 366, February 2011: here
33 The chart is from Nicos Komninos “Global R&D 2011 Forecast,” URENIO, March 20, 20011: here
34 Hitachi's home page on its power-unit options is nothing less than a paean to bigness.
35 On this, see Micheline Maynard “With Eye on Profits, G.M. Began Missing on Innovation,” New York Times, December 6, 2008, p.1.
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