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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
[This is a comprehensive contribution to an ongoing discussion of East Asia and the Pacific in an era of transformation. Earlier contributions by Gavan McCormack and Wada Haruki (on Northeast Asia), by David Rosenberg (on China and Southeast Asia), and by Lora Saalman (on the changing Chinese- Indian-U.S. strategic relationship) all raise issues posed by the rise of China as a major economic power in Asia and globally, and the repercussions of changing power relations reverberating throughout Asia. Noting that China remains a distant third to the U.S. and Japan in trade and investment in East and Southeast Asia, Economy highlights China's rapid advance, above all in the realms of economics and finance, but also extending to a broad realms including governance, the resolution of territorial conflicts, the environment and others, with particular reference to Southeast Asia. At a time of rising China-Japan tensions, China appears to be making major multifaceted gains throughout Southeast Asia. This article also examines the possibilities of regional trajectories in which the U.S. role is sharply reduced. Japan Focus]
[1] Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,” International Secuirty vol.18 no.3 (Winter 199-1994), pp. 5-33.
[2] Juan T. Gatbonton, “China moves in as East Asia's core-state,” Manila Times (January 8, 2004); and Eric Teo Chu Cheow, “An Ancient Model for China's New Power; payng Trivute to Beijing, “International Herald Tribune (Jnauary 21, 2004), p.6.
[3] Elizabeth Economy and Michel Oksenerg, eds., China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects (New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999).
[4] Rommel C. Banlaoi, “Southeast Asian Perspectives on the Rise of China: Regional Security after 9/11,” Parameters (Summer 2003).
[5] The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration: report of an Independent Task Force (New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations, 2001), pp.1-2.
[6] Geoffrey Barker Bangkok, “APEC Heads Unite in War on Terror,” Australian Financial Review (October 22, 2003), p.1.
[7] APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, Santiago Declaration: “One Community, Our Future,” (Santiago, Chile, November 20-21, 2004).
[8] Fran O'Sullivan, “Summit's Agenda Hijacked by Bush,” New Zealand Herald (November 23, 2004).
[9] Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. Says North Korean Demand for Reactor Won't Derail Accord,” New York Times (September 21, 2005).
[10] See for example a discussion of China's rise by Ruan Zongze, Vice Director of the China Institute of International Studies, “What are the implications of China's peaceful rise to the world?” http://www.crf.org.cn/peacefulrise/ruanzongze2.htm
[11] Technically the term heping jueqi translates into “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” but rise is perceived by many Chinese policy analysts as less likely to provoke concern among other countries. (Yiwei Wang, “The dimensions of China's peaceful rise,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/printN.html
[12] “China to be mainstay for peace after peaceful rise,” 2004 Boao Forum for Asia http://www.china.org.cn/english/international/94030.htm
[13] Jifang Zan, “Peaceful Rise,” Beijing Review http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/BoaoSpecial-200416(B).htm
[14] David Lamb, “China Works to Improve Relations with Southeast Asian Neighbors,” Los Angeles Times (November 15, 2000).
[15] Jiechi Yang, Speech at the Asia Society, New York, NY (December 3, 2002)
[16] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and Opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2003).
[17] Bian Shen, “New Opportunity for China- ASEAN Trade,” Beijing Review (May 1, 2003), p.18.
[18] “Get on China's Economic Train: ASEAN- China Cooperation on Fast Track,” People's Daily (English) (May 26, 2004)/
[19] “China, ASEAN Trade over US$100 Billion in 2004” China Radio International, www.cri.com.cn (February 4, 2005).
[20] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and Opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Experts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press (March 30, 2004).
[21] Shen, op cit., “New Opportunity,” p.19.
[22] Hongmei Shen, “Knocking Down Asian Trade Barriers,” Beijing Review (April 17, 2003), p.42.
[23] Zaidi Isham Ismail, “ASEAN, China to complete Talks by June,” Business Times (March 30, 2004), p.2.
[24] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2004).
[25] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2004).
[26] “ASEAN, Japan to pursue comprehensive economic partnership”, Chinaview (September 29, 2005).
[27] “Joint Press Statement of the 18th U.S.- ASEAN Dialogue”, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Washington, D.C., June 28, 2005).
[28] Audrey McAvoy, “Fearing rivalry with China, free Trade agreements are suddenly the rage in Japan,” Associate Press (April 2, 2004).
[29] “Japan Talks Trade at ASEAN Summit,” (December 10, 2003) www.cnn.com/2003/world/asiapcf/east/12/10/japan.asean.summit.ap/
[30] Oxford Analytica, “East Asia: Currency Cooperation,” (May 24, 2002).
[31] Ibid.
[32] Lyall Breckon, “SARS and a New Security Initiative from China,” Comparative Connections 103 (July 2003), p. 76.
[33] “Asia-Pacific central banks to launch new fund for regional bonds,” Japan Economic Newswire (December 16, 2004).
[34] Michael Vatikiotis and Bertil Lintner, “New Asian Dollar: The Growing Reach of China's RMB,” http://tawainsecurity.ag/news/2003feer-052903.htm
[35] Zongze Ruan, “What are the Implications of China's Peaceful Rise to the World,” http://www.cfr.org.cn/peacefulrise/ruanzongze2.htm
[36] “China joins Treaty of Amity, Cooperation in Southeast Asia,” People's Daily (October 9, 2003).
[37] David Shambaugh, “China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order,” International Security 29 (3), (winter 2004-2005), p. 88.
[38] Udai Banhu Singh, “Major Powers and the Security of Southeast Asia,” Strategic Analysis: A Monthly Journal of the IDSA, XXIV (2), (May 2000), p.8.
[39] Jason Leow, “China rejects DPM Lee's reasons for Taiwan Visit,” Singapore Straits Times (July 22, 2004).
[40] “Regional Perspective: The growth and limits of China's reach in Southeast Asia,” The Nation (October 4, 2004).
[41] Singh, p.3.
[42] Willy Wo-Lap Lam, “China aiming for ‘peaceful rise,’ (February 6, 2004) CNN.com/20040WORLD/asiapcf/02/02/willy.column/
[43] Gilbert Felongco, “Manila Unfazed by Spratly Isles Tensions,” Financial Times Information (September 11, 2004).
[44] “China Protests Vietnam's Bid in South China Sea,” Agence France Presse (October 20, 2004).
[45] “Major Points of Premier Wen's Speech at the 8th China-ASEAN summit,” Xinhua New Agency (November 30, 2004)
[46] Ray Cheung, “Verbal Sparring Eases Tensions over Spratlys,” South China Morning Post (November 15, 2004), p.6.
[47] “Joint exploration starts around disputed Spratlys”, Energy Compass (September 2, 2005).
[48] Rosemary Foot, “Human Rights and Counter-terrorism in America's Asia Policy,” Adelphi Paper, no. 363, Institute of [49] Oscar S. Villadolid, “The Listening Post,” Financial Times Information (November 30, 2004).
[50] M.J. Hassan, “Terrorism:Southeast Asia's Response,” January 3, 2002 Pacific Forum CSIS, PacNet 1, via e-email from [email protected] in Rosemary Foot, “Human Rights and Counter-terrorism in America's Asia Policy,” Adelphi Paper 363 (International Institute for Strategic Studies 2004), p.46.
[51] Author Interviews in with officials and scholars in Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand (November 2002).
[52] Mark Baker, “Southeast Asia Turns on Bush,” The Age, (March 20, 2004), p.4.
[53] Ibid.
[54] Views of a Changing World: The Pew Global Attitudes Project. The Pew Research Center for People and the Press (June 2003), p.19.
[55] Xinning Guo, “Strategic Premium,” Beijing Review (March 18, 2004), p.17.
[56] Murray Hiebert and Barry Wain, “Same Planet, Different World,” Far Eastern Economic Review (June 17, 2004), 26-27.
[57] Simon S. C. Tay, “Asia and the United States after 9/11: Primacy and Partnership in the Pacific,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs Vol. 28:1 Winter 2004.
[58] “China's Position paper on Enhanced Cooperation in the Field of Non-Traditional Security Issues,” (May 2002) http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/gjs/gjzzyhy/2612/2614/tl5318.htm#
[59] “China-ASEAN Prosecutors-General Conference Opens,” Xinhua News Agency (July 8, 2004).
[60] “Speech by Premier Wen Jiabao of China at the Special China Leaders’ Meeting on SARS,” (April 29, 2003) www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/zgcydyhz/zgdmfdtbhy/t26292.htm
[61] Alex Liebman, “Washed down the Mekong,” South China Morning Post (July 21, 2004).
[62] “Damming of the Mekong sparks fear for farmers,” South China Morning Post (June 30, 2004).
[63] John Vidal, “China Mekong Dams Worry Downstream Nations,” The Guardian (March 25, 2004).
[64] Dennis D. Gray, “Illegal Trade Derailing Southeast Asia Wildlife,” Associated Press (March 28, 2004).
[65] Elizabeth Economy, The River Runs Black: the Environmental Challenges to China's Future (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), p.122.
[66] Peter Capella, “Pressure Builds on Myanmar as UN rights forum urges Suu Kyi's release,” AFP (April 21, 2004).
[67] Muthaih Alagappa, “Constructing Security Order in Asia,” in Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order (Stanford, CA; Stanford University Press, 2003), p.79.
[68] Alyson Bailes, “Europe's Defense Challenge,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 1997), p.16.
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