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China, India and the Future of South Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

Tarique Niazi
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China's growing presence in South Asia is riding on its accelerated economic and strategic influence in the region. This article gauges the interplay between economic, particularly resource factors, and strategic factors in China's advance in the region and its relations with South Asian nations. One measure of China's economic outreach is its current trade volume with all South Asian nations, which now approaches $20 billion a year. [1] Its bilateral trade with India alone accounts for $13.6 billion a year, a number that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has projected to grow to $30 billion by 2010. [2] Yet it constitutes just 1% of China's global trade as compared to 9% of India's. [3] These statistics pale in comparison with the trade between China and East Asian nations. China's trade with Japan, which was valued at $213 billion in 2004, [4] is more than 15 times that between Beijing and Delhi. In 2004 China passed the United States as Japan's largest trading partner. What is remarkable about Sino-Indian trade, however, is its dramatic acceleration from $338 million in 1992 to $13.6 billion in 2004. [5] The projected $30 billion trade between China and India by 2010 will likely surpass Indo-U.S. trade that is currently valued at $20 billion a year.

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Research Article
Information
Asia-Pacific Journal , Volume 3 , Issue 8 , August 2005 , e10
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Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
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Copyright © The Authors 2005

References

Notes

1. China's current trade with India ($13.6 billion), Pakistan ($3.06 billion), Bangladesh ($1.14 billion), Sri Lanka ($350 million), and Nepal ($200 million) is rapidly growing. Although reliable trade figures are not known for the remaining two South Asian states of Bhutan and Maldives, the total volume of bilateral trade between China and South Asia is set to reach $20 billion a year. See “Boost Allweather Partnership between China, Pakistan.” People's Daily, April 5, 2005. Habib, Haroon (2005). “Bangladesh, China Sign Nine Agreements.” The Hindu, April 9, 2005.

2. “Sino-Indian Trade to Reach $30bn 2010.” Press Trust of India (PTI), April 11, 2005.

3. The Economist (2005). “Rivals and Partners.” The Economist, March 3, 2005.

4. Blustein, Paul (2005). “China Passes U.S. in Trade with Japan: 2004 Figures Show Asian Giant's Muscle,” The Washington Post, January 27, 2005.

5. The Economist (2005). “Rivals and Partners.” The Economist, March 3, 2005.

6. op. cit.

7. op. cit.

8. The Economist (2005). “As China's prime minister goes to India, Indians should learn that they have less to fear from their giant neighbor than they think.” The Economist, March 3, 2005.

9. Prominent among them is Mr L.K. Advani, leader of the opposition, who accuses Bangladesh of infiltration into Assam and neighboring northeastern states. See Dutta, Sreeradha (2000). “Security of India's Northeast: External Linkage.” Strategic Analysis, vol. xxiv(8), November 2000.

10. Bajpaee, Chietigj (2005). “India, China Locked in Energy Game.” Asia Times, March 16, 2005.

11. op. cit.

12. “Khalida, Jiabao hold official talks: Six deals signed: China to help peaceful use of nuclear energy.” The New Nation (Online Edition), August 18, 2005.

13. Zeitlin, Arnold (2005) “Bangladesh's Ambivalent Relations with the PRC.” China Brief, volume V(5), March 1, 2005.

14. Kapila, Subhash (2005). “Bangladesh-China Defense Cooperation Agreement's Strategic Implications: An analysis.”

15. “Naxalism” is a village-based peasant movement that is fast spreading in southern and northeastern states of India, which include Andra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jarkhand, Maharashtra, Orissa, and Tamil Nadu. The Naxalite movement adheres to Marxist and Maoist ideologies, which are believed to bind it with Maoists in Nepal, also.

16. “The Bothersome Little People Next Door.” The Economist, November 4, 2004. The Economist estimates that at least some Naxalite activity can be discerned in as much as forty percent of India's 593 districts.

17. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman Kong Quan called King Gyanendra's dismissal of the Nepalese government “an internal matter of Nepal.” see “China Hopes Nepal to Realize Social Security.” Xinhuanet, February 1, 2005.

18. See David Rosenberg, Dire Straits: Competing Security Priorities in the South China Sea, Japan Focus, Japan Focus posted April 13, 2005.

19. See Mahmood, Afzaal 92005). “Sino-U.S. Rivalry and South Asia.” The Dawn, Karachi (Pakistan), April 16, 2005.

20. Bajpaee, Chietigj (2005). “India, China Locked in Energy Game.” Asia Times, March 16, 2005.

21. Niazi, Tarique (2005). “Gwadar: China's Naval Outpost on the Indian Ocean.” China Brief, vol. V (4), February 15, 2005.

22. The treaty was signed on April 5, 2005 by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Pakistani Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz. For reference, see “Pak, China Sign Treaty of Friendship; Beijing's Assurance to Defend Territorial Integrity, Sovereignty.” The Dawn, Karachi (Pakistan), April 6, 2005.

23. See Mahmood, Afzaal 92005). “Sino-U.S. Rivalry and South Asia.” The Dawn, Karachi (Pakistan), April 16, 2005.