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China in Southeast Asia: The Limits of Power

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

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The development of the China-ASEAN relationship began from a very low base. It has improved compared with what it was 15 or 10 years ago, but compared with ASEAN's relations with other extra-regional powers, it is far from transforming the regional strategic balance. While China has gained influence in Southeast Asia in recent years, ASEAN's relations with other extra-regional major powers remain robust. For the foreseeable future, China will lack the economic, social and strategic bases to tip the balance. Should China's goals remain modest, its relations with ASEAN are likely to remain vigorous. If it seeks to press too hard, however, it risks a strong backlash from not only ASEAN countries but also extra-regional powers. This essay explores China's strengths and weaknesses and the challenges that confront its ASEAN policy.

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References

Notes

[1] These figures are from China's Ministry of Commerce. See “Zhongguo qiye touzi dongmeng shichang cunzai wenti ji duice fengxi” [Chinese Companies Invest in ASEAN Markets: Analysis of Problems and Policies (12 November 2005)]. “Zhongguo-Dongmeng touzi, laowu hezuo qude jingzhan” [China and ASEAN: Progress in Investment and Labour Service Cooperationi%”14 January 2006]. This article put the officially registered investment by Chinese companies in ASEAN as low as US$1.14 billion.

[2] These figures are from the ASEAN Secretariat, quoted from ibid. Also see “Dongnanya: Zhongguo qiye ‘zouchuqu’ de zhongdian diqu” [Southeast Asia: A Key Area for Chinese Companies ‘Going Out’“, Guoji gongcheng yu laowu [International Projects and Labour] (China's Ministry of Commerce), no. 10, 2005, quoted from China's official website of China-ASEAN-FTA (5 March 2006).

[3] The News Office, the State Council of the PRC, “Zhongguo de heping fazhan daolu” [China's Peaceful Development Road], Renmin Ribao [People's Daily] (overseas edition), 23 December 2005,. These figures are also available from the official website of China's Ministry of Commerce.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] “ASEAN Centre of Contemporary Chinese Studies in offing”, People's Daily on Line (English Edition), 27 August 2005. “Hu Jintao: Zhongguo yaxi'an nianmaoyi'e wunian nei kepo 2000 yi meiyuan” [Hu Jintao: China-ASEAN Annual Trade May Reach US$200 in Five Years], Lianhe Zaobao [United Morning News] (Singapore), 27 April 2005.

[8] “Maoyi daguo anran shice, zhongguo wehe meiyu dingjiaquan?” [A Trade Power under Challenge: Why China Cannot Decide the Price?] China Daily (Chinese edition) (Beijing), 19 August 2005. According to China Minister of commerce Bo Xilai, these foreign companies accounted for 58 per cent of China's total export in 2004. See his press conference on 11 April 2006,

[9] News Report, China CCTV Channel 4, 17 January 2003.

[10] David Barboza, “Some Assembly Needed: China as Asia Factory”, New York Times, 9 February 2006.

[11] Zhu Wenwei, “Zhongguo dongmeng huwu maoyi shichang jiang jingyibu kaifang” [China and ASEAN Will Further Open Their Markets of Goods], Zhongguo Maoyibao [China Trade] (Beijing), 12 January 2006.

[12] Xu Changwen, “Zhongguo yu xinjiapo jingmao hezuo kuaisu fazhan” [China and Singapore: Rapid Development in Their Economic and Trade Cooperation], Zhongguo Jingji Shibao [China Economic Times), 7 April 2006, available on

[13] For details, see “Yingxiang zhongguo yu dongmeng jingmao fazhan de yinsu ji duice” [China and ASEAN Economic and Trade Development: Unfavourable Factors and Countermeasures], in China's official China-ASEAN FTA website (19 December 2005).

[14] Shi Benzhi & Dai Jie<eds., Lancangjiang-Meigonghe ciquyu hezuo yu zhongguo-dongmeng ziyou maoyiqu jianshe [Lancang River-Greater Mekong sub-Regional Cooperation and the Building of China-ASEAN FTA] (Beijing: China Commerce and Trade Press, 2005), pp. 239 & 254. However, according to statistics from Guangdong Province, the total trade of that year was US$14.958 billion.

[15] Guangdong Provincial Statistics Bureau, Guangdong tongji nianjian 2003 [Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong Province 2003] (Beijing, China Statistics Press, 2003).

[16] Shanghai duiwai jingji maoyi nianjian 2002 [Shanghai Yearbook of Foreign Economy and Trade 2002] and Shanghai duiwai jingji maoyi tongji nianjian 2002 [Shanghai Statistics Yearbook of Foreign Economy and Trade 2002].

[17] Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century, a report submitted by the ASEABN-China Expert Group on Economic Cooperation, October 2001, p. 1,

[18] My own calculation.

[19] “2010 nian zhongguo-dongmeng maoyi'e jiangda 2000 yi meiyuan” [China-SEAN Trade will Reach US$200 by 2010] Xin Jing Bao [The Beijing News] (Beijing), 10 January 2006.

[20] “ASEAN Center of Contemporary Chinese Studies in offing”, Renmin Ribao, 27 August 2005. “Hu Jintao: China-ASEAN Annual Trade May Reach US$200 Billion in Five Years”, Lianhe Zaobao, 27 April 2005.

[21] The State Council of the PRC, “Zhongguo de heping fazhan daolu” [China's Peaceful Development Road], op. cit.

[22] Xinhua News Agency, 17 March 2006, cited in China's official China-ASEANFTA website,

[23] Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, “China could overtake US's India trade”, Asia Times (Bangkok), 15 March 2006.

[24] Xinhua News Agency, 17 March 2006. Their two-way trade for 2005 was US$29.1 billion.

[25] Singapore has been China's largest ASEAN trade partner for many years, though occasionally overtaken by Malaysia.

[26] Straits Times (Singapore), 18 January 2006, p. 1. Total China-ASEAN trade in 2004 was US$109.9 billion.

[27] See John Wong and Sarah Chan, “China- ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Shaping Future Economic Relations”, Asian Survey, Vol. 43, no.3 (May/June 2003), pp. 507-526.

[28] Stephen S. Roach, “The Untold China Story”, Newsweek, 8 May 2006, p. 35. Exports and investments now account for about 75 percent of Chinese GDP. Ibid.

[29] See Pallab Bhattacharya, “Yangon-Beijing Gas Deal - Tri-nation pipeline at stake”, The Daily Star [Bangladesh], 14 January 2006. Li Zhongfa, “Wen Jiabao zongli yu miandian zongli Suo Wen zai renmin dahuitang juxing huitan” [Premier Wen Jiaobao and Myanmar Prime Minister Soe Win Held a Meeting in the People's Great Hall], Xinhua News, 14 February 2006; Liao Lei, “Guojia zhuxi Hu Jintao huijian miandian zongli Suo Wen tan zhongmian youhao guanxi” [Chinese President Hu Jingtao Met with Myanmar Prime Minister Soe Win and Talked About China-Myanmar Friendship], Xinhua News, 15 February 2006.

[30] He Sheng, “Riben wei qianzhi zhongguo jiji gudong benguo ziben jingjun yuenan” [Japan Encourages Its companies to Move to Vietnam in Order to Constrain China], Shijie Xinwen Bao [World News] (Beijing), 11 April 2006, from China's official China-ASEAN FTA website.

[31] See Chi Hung Kwan, “Why ASEAN did not Seek a Stronger Yuan: Apprehension over the Spread of Currency Appreciation Pressures”, China in Transition (Research Institute of Economy Trade and Industry, Japan), 3 October 2003, p. 2.

[32] The State Council of the PRC, “Zhongguo de heping fazhan daolu” [China's Peaceful Development Road], op. cit.

[33] “ASEAN Center of Contemporary Chinese Studies in offing”, op. cit. “Hu Jintao: China- ASEAN Annual Trade May Reach US$200 in Five Years”, op. cit.

[34] For further reading, see “Contending Perspectives: Southeast Asia and American Views of a Rising China”, Colloquium Brief, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2006.

[35] See Sheng Lijun, “An Overview of ASEAN- China Relations”, and Michael Richardson, “ASEAN-China Maritime Security Cooperation”. Both are in Saw Swee Hock, Sheng Lijun and Chin Kin Wah, eds., ASEAN- China Relations: Realities and Prospects (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asia Studies, 2005)

[36] Since the Shangri-la Dialogue began in 2002, China has refused to send a defence minister or military chiefs to attend it and has recently even refused to send military personnel, sending only low-level officials from its Ministry of Foreign Affairs and heads of some think tanks. One delegate publicly accused the Dialogue of being “anti-China from the beginning”. See Goh Sui Noi, “No High- Level Beijing Team as Forum is Seen as AntiChina”, Straits Times, 5 June 2006. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies organized the Dialogue to discuss security issues in Asia Pacific. Defence ministers and military chiefs or their representatives from the 23 countries have regularly attended the annual dialogue, including such Asian countries as Singapore, Cambodia, Myanmar, Brunei, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Timor Leste.

[37] See for example, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Rise of China's Soft Power”, Wall Street Journal Asia, 29 December 2005.

[38] Mohan Malik, “EAC: More an East Asian cacophony?”, Straits Times, 3 January 2006, p. 19.

[39] Wei Min, “Zhongguo Dongmeng guanxi ji dongya hezuo de huigu yu zhanwang” [China-ASEAN Relations and East Asia Cooperation: Review and Prospects], from (22 April 2006). The author is an associate professor at China Institute of International Studies, Beijing.