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Abe Shinzo and Japan's One-Strong (Ikkyo) State
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 March 2025
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Abe Shinzo has exercised extraordinary influence over the Japanese state. On 20 November 2019, as he passed his 2,587th day in office (over eight years) he became modern Japan's longest-serving Prime Minister. But what are the sources of this longevity and what will be the consequences for Japan and the Asia-Pacific? Probably few, even among his close supporters, suggest that he has been exceptionally popular. His parliamentary dominance rests on a combination of political apathy, absence of credible opposition, and a well-funded political party machine honed by more than half a century of Cold War and post-Cold War parliamentary dominance. From a narrow electoral base, during his second term of office that followed the general election of December 2012, Abe moved to concentrate an unprecedented measure of control over the levers of state, nominating his close associates to special policy advisory committees and to head the Cabinet Legislative Bureau, the National Security Council, the Bank of Japan, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the national broadcaster (NHK). He also paid close attention to the cultivation of the major national media groups. In October 2017 the support of just 17.9 per cent of eligible voters (48.2% of the vote) in the small seat electorate division was sufficient to secure the Abe camp 61.1% of the parliamentary seats. In September 2018 Abe extended his party leadership position to three terms (nine years from 2012) and so anticipated steering the country through the 2020 Olympic Games and beyond to the adoption of a new constitution before retiring in glory late in 2021. Coronavirus upset that design by causing the Olympics to be held over for at least a year, but early signs were that Abe would turn that delay to his political purposes.
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References
Notes
1 Support LDP constitutional revision, 37 per cent; oppose: 49:0 per cent (Kyodo, August 2018) and support 31, oppose 46 (Asahi shimbun, July 2019) and support 32 oppose 56 (Kyodo, July 2019), “Seron chosa, Abe kaiken e no hantai tsuyoku, Akahata, 25 July 2019.
2 The Imperial Rescript on Education, 1890, https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Imperial_Rescript_on_Education/
3 For my discussion of the early stages of the affair, see The State of the Japanese State, pp. 210-213.
4 “Chorei de no kyoiku chokugo no rodoku ‘mondai no nai koi’ bunka fukudaijin,” Asahi shimbun. 7 April 2017. See also Tomohiro Osaki, “Imperial Rescript on Education making slow, contentious comeback,” Japan Times, 11 April 2017.
5 “Abe shusho, ‘Watakushi ya tsuma kanyo nara jinin’ kokuyuchi kakuan haraisage de,” Asahi shimbun, 17 February 2017.
6 Reiji Yoshida, “Finance Ministry admits to doctoring official papers on Moritomo land scandal,” Japan Times, 12 March 2018.
7 On Nihon Kaigi, see McCormack, The State of the Japanese State, pp. 29-30.
8 The government could defend its inaction by pointing out that Article 53 included no provision as to time limit.
9 Lawrence Repeta, “Backstory to Abe's snap election – the secrets of Moritomo, Kake and the ‘Missing’ Japan SDF activity logs,” The Asia Pacific Journal – Japan Focus, 15 October 2017 https://apjjf.org/2017/20/Repeta.html
10 According to Kagoike Yasunori's sworn testimony before the Diet on 23 March 2017.
11 Which Kagoike theatrically tried to return to the prime minister by accosting him on Tokyo streets.
12 “Prosecutors close Moritomo land sale case with zero indictments,” Asahi shimbun, 8 May 2019.
13 “Prosecutors close Moritomo land sale case,” Ibid.
14 The “one-year salary cut” he announced referred to his annual ministerial allowance of about 1.7 million yen ($15,600), not his Diet member salary. (Mari Yamaguchi, “Japan's finance minister takes pay cut, officials punished,” Associated Press, 4 June 2018.)
15 Daigo Satoshi, “Sagawa kokuzeicho chokan o himen seyo,” Shukan kinyobi, 29 September 2017, pp. 12–13.
16 Kyodo, “Moritomo Gakuen couple in Abe cronyism found guilty of fraud,” Japan Times, 19 February 2020.
17 An editorial in Kahoku shimpo drew my attention to this point. (Moritomo hojokin sashu hanketsu, giwaku no kakushin wa harete inai,“ Kahoku shimpo, 21 February 2020.)
18 “Moritomo jisatsu shokuin, isho zenbun kokai, ‘Subete Sagawa kyokucho no shiji desu’,” Shukan bunshun, 26 March 2020. See also Reiji Yoshida, “Suicide note reignites Moritomo scandal that rocked Abe administration,” Japan Times, 18 March 2020.
19 The following account draws in part upon my The State of the Japanese State, pp. 213-215.
20 Kataoka Nobuyuki, “Imabari-shi to Kake gakuen no keikaku jitsugen wa muri da,” Shukan kinyobi, 2 June 2017, pp. 18–19.
21 “Moritomo mondai ni kokuji, Kake giwaku ni mo hyojo shita ‘Nihon kaigi’ no sen,” Nikkan gendai, 7 June 2017.
22 “Outline of negotiations with Cabinet Office secretary,” (Naikakufu shingikan to no uchiawase gaiyo), 26 September 2016, reproduced in Mainichi Shimbun, 2 June 2017.
23 Maekawa Kihei, “Maekawa Kihei zen bunka jimujkan shuki, waga kokuhatsu wa yakunin no kyoji da,” Bungei shunju, July 2017, pp. 94–105
24 “Jinin no Maekawa, zen bunka jikan, deai-kei ba ni dehairi,” Yomiuri Shimbun, 22 May 2017.
25 “Kantei retteru hari shippai, Maekawa zen jikan 'ii hito episodo zokuoku,” Nikkan gendai, 3 June 2017.
26 “Abe kantei ga shubun sagashi ni yakki, Maekawa zen bunka jikan ‘kuchi fuji tembo’ mo,” Nikkan gendai, 30 May 2017.
27 “Gov't attempts to bury Kake scandal only deepening suspicions, Mainichi Shimbun, editorial, 31 May 2017; ”Ex-education vice minister slams gov't process for fast-tracking Kake project, Mainichi Shimbun, 5 June, 2017; “Suspicions Abe gov't trying to run out Diet clock on Kake affair,” editorial, Mainichi Shimbun, 6 June, 2017. And, on Kake and the relationship with the Prime Minister, Koizumi Kohei and Kamei Hiroshi, “Sontaku ya boryaku no ura de ‘otomodachi’ yugu, Abe kancho ni sukuu kake gakuen jinmyaku,” Nikkan gendai, 7 June 2017.
28 “Ex-Education Minister,” op. cit.
29 “As investigative reports grow, Suga rebuffs demand to reopen Kake probe,” Japan Times, 8 June 2017.
30 “Suga shi ‘kaibunsho’ hatsugen wa tekkai sezu ‘kotoba no hitori aruki zannen’,” Ryukyu shimpo, 15 June 2017.
31 “Close-up Gendai,” NHK TV, 19 June 2017; see “Kake scandal continues to plague Abe administration with discovery of new document,” The Mainichi, 21 June 2017. The College did in fact open on time in April 2018.
32 Reiji Yoshida, “Breaking down the Kake Gakuen scandal: Who is lying, Abe or his political opponents?” Japan Times, 1 June 2018.
33 “Moritomo, Kake, kaiken sengen … subete no ura ni ‘Nihon kaigi’ no ijo,” Nikkan Gendai, 9 June 2017. See also Koizumi Kohei and Kamei Hiroshi, “Sontaku ya boryaku no ura,” op. cit.
34 “Kankokujin nyukensei o zen-in fugokaku, Kake gakuen ju-I gakubu no 'fusei nyushi, giwaku,” Yahoo Japan, 4 March 2020.
35 Sugiyama Junichi, “Kaigyo 26 nen toei chikatetsu no' kuronin' Oedosen, tsui ni kuroji ka?” Norimono nyusu, 22 July 2017
36 Forty-five occasions since the formation of the (second) Abe government in December 2012 (Kaneda Shinichiro, “Zaito 3-cho en tonyu, rinea wa dai-3 no Mori Kake mondai,” Nikkei Bijinesu, 2 August 2018). See also my own analysis (McCormack, The State of the Japanese State, pp. 183-4).
37 Robin Harding and Steve Bernard, “Japan: the next big quake,” Financial Times, 18 May 2016. For a recent authoritative analysis of the quake prospect, Ishihashi Katsuhiko, “Cho koiki daishinsai ni do sonaeru ka,” Sekai, March 2020, pp. 80-93.
38 Aoki Hidekazu and Kawamiya Nobuo, “End game for Japan's construction state – The linear (Maglev) Shinkansen and Abenomics,” The Asia-Pacific Journal – Japan Focus, 15 June 2017.
39 Kyodo, “An estimated 3.2 million Japanese addicted to gambling,” Japan Times, 30 September 2017.
40 “Abe seiken chusu ni, kajino giren menba zurari,” Akahata, 9 September 2014.
41 McCormack, The State of the Japanese State, p. 189.
42 Torihata Yoichi, “Kajino-ho seiritsu,” Sekai, February 2017, pp. 29-32 at p. 29.
43 Justin Elliott, “Trump's patron-in-chief,” ProPublica, 10 Ocober 2018, https://features.propublica.org/trump-inc-podcast/sheldon-adelson-casino-magnate-trump-macau-and-japan/
44 Elliott, op. cit. See also Tomohiro Osaki, “Japan's top government official denies Trump asked Abe to ‘strongly consider’ giving casino license to one of his benefactors,” Japan Times, 1 October 2018.
45 “Kurin na kajino no jitsugen e, suishin honbu hatsu kaigo,” NichitereNews 24, 4 April 2017.
46 Quoted in Elliott, op. cit.
47 Utsunomiya Kenji, “Seiki no gukyo, kajino-ho kyoko,” Shukan kinyobi, 10 August 2018, p. 55.
48 “Japanese government has legalised casinos, but they are not popular,” The Economist, 2 February 2017.
49 “Five other lawmakers may be involved in Japan's casino-bribery scandal,” Nikkei Asia Review, 2 January 2020.
50 “Over 70% want gov't to review casino plan: poll,” The Mainichi, 12 January 2020.
51 Katagiri Nobuyuki, “Kajino oshoku, kakudai no kanosei,” Shukan Kinyobi, 10 January 2020, pp. 34-5.
52 Eric Johnston, “Cherry blossom-viewing party: Breaking down Abe's latest cronyism scandal,” Japan Times, 27 November 2019.
53 Simon Denyer, “Government shredded in paper secrecy,” Sydney Morning Herald, 29 November 2019.
54 Eric Johnston, op. cit.
55 “Japan PM and hotel differ on how controversial pre-sakura party dinner was handled,” The Mainichi, 18 February 2020.
56 “Japan PM and hotel differ,” ibid.
57 Nishiyama Takanori, “Abe seiken, kansensha kazu o sukunaku, ‘kaizan’,” Shukan kinyobi, 21 February 2020, p. 11.
58 Isabel Reynolds, “Japan plays COVID-19 catch-up with rushed state-of-emergency bill,” Japan Times, 11 March 2020.
60 Nishiyama, and multiple Japanese media reports.
61 Dooley, etc, op. cit.
62 Masuzoe Yoichi, “Masuzoe Yoichi - dakara ieru, shin gata uirus ”kosei rodosho' koko ga abunai,“ 4 March 2020. http://ironna.jp/article/14445/
63 Quoted in Satoshi Sugiyama, “Abe's bold school cosure move appears spurred by criticism of irus response,” Japan Times, 28 Feb 2020.
64 Will Ripley, Sandhi Sidhu, Junko Ogura and Emiko Jozuka, “Japan's coronavirus infection rate could be ‘tip of the iceberg,‘ as experts call for more testing,” CNN, 5 March 2020. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia/japan-coronavirus-infection-levels-hnk-intl/index.html/
65 Magosaki Ukeru, “Tokyo gorin ga shingata koronauirus no ‘rutsubo’ ni naru kikensei,” Nikkan Gendai, 13 March 2020. https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/artiles/iew/news/270341/
66 Magosaki, op. cit.
67 Ben Dooley, Motoko Rich and Hisako Ueno, “Anger in Japan over virus begins to focus on Prime Minister,” New York Times, 7 March 2020.
68 Notably the “loss” and then “doctoring” of Self-Defense Forces daily activity logs on the South Sudan deployment of 2016-7 (on which see Repeta, op. cit) or the 2019 doctoring of labour statistics to support the Prime Minister's “Abenomics” success story by showing rising wages and good times even as wages and conditions actually worsened (“Seifu tokei ‘shinrai yuraida’ 75%, naikaku shijiritsu wa kiko, Mainichi shimbun seron chosa,” Mainichi Shimbun, 3 February 2019. https://mainichi.jp/senkyo/articles/20190203/k00/010/146000c/
69 Jiji in early March reported 39.3 per cent “support” and 38.8 percent “non-suport” for the Abe government (“Abe seiken shiji yokobai 39%,” 13 March 2020. NHK at almost the same time found “support” and non-support at 43 percent and 41 per cent. (Bloomberg, 9 March 2020).
70 Tawara Soichiro, “Waga sokatsu – Taikenteki sengo media-shi,” (13), Sekai, January 2020, pp. 243-251.