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MODELLING THE INTRODUCTION OF WOLBACHIA INTO AEDES AEGYPTI MOSQUITOES TO REDUCE DENGUE TRANSMISSION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 October 2012

MEKSIANIS Z. NDII ,
ROSLYN I. HICKSON  and
GEOFFRY N. MERCER
MEKSIANIS Z. NDII*
Affiliation:
Mathematical Sciences Institute, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Department of Mathematics, The University of Nusa Cendana, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia (email: [email protected]) School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia (email: [email protected])
ROSLYN I. HICKSON
Affiliation:
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia (email: [email protected]) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (email: [email protected])
GEOFFRY N. MERCER
Affiliation:
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (email: [email protected])
*
✉For correspondence; e-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

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Infecting Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with the bacteria Wolbachia has been proposed as an innovative new strategy to reduce the transmission of dengue fever. Field trials are currently being undertaken in Queensland, Australia. However, few mathematical models have been developed to consider the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the wild. This paper develops a mathematical model to determine the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes by considering the competition between Wolbachia-infected and non-Wolbachia mosquitoes. The model has four steady states that are biologically feasible: all mosquitoes dying out, only non-Wolbachia mosquitoes surviving, and two steady states where non-Wolbachia and Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes coexist. The stability of the steady states is determined with respect to the key parameters in the mosquito life cycle. A global sensitivity analysis of the model is also conducted. The results show that the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is dominated by the reproductive rate, death rate, maturation rate and maternal transmission. For the parameter values where Wolbachia persists, it dominates the population, and hence the introduction of Wolbachia has great potential to reduce dengue transmission.

Keywords

WolbachiaAedes aegyptidenguemathematical modelsensitivity analysisstability

MSC classification

Secondary: 92D25: Population dynamics (general)
Type
Research Article
Information
The ANZIAM Journal , Volume 53 , Issue 3 , January 2012 , pp. 213 - 227
Copyright
Copyright © Australian Mathematical Society 2012

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