Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T01:32:03.119Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Climate change and the Antarctic marine ecosystem: an essay on management implications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

P.N. Trathan*
Affiliation:
British Antarctic Survey, NERC, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
D. Agnew
Affiliation:
Marine Resource Assessment Group Ltd, 18 Queen Street, London W1J 5PN, UK

Abstract

In this paper we review evidence for, and anticipated consequences of, climate change in Antarctic marine communities, examining the potential impacts on invertebrates and vertebrates alike and exploring plausible outcomes for species, with examples principally from the Antarctic literature. We suggest that industries with the greatest potential to aggravate climate change impacts on marine communities are marine capture fisheries. In the Southern Ocean, harvesting is governed under the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). CCAMLR espouses an ecological management framework and so has the capacity to mitigate harvesting impacts such that they do not worsen impacts from climate change. We discuss some of the implications of climate change and advocate that CCAMLR address certain key issues if it is to fulfil its international obligations. It will be essential for CCAMLR to determine relative risks (uncertainties), impacts and timescales, of various processes consequent on climate change. Such risk assessments should be feasible with current knowledge and should provide a focus for future work. We believe it will be important to prioritize issues that reduce impacts and uncertainties by the greatest degree, and propose that future plans should involve shared responsibility (e.g. with SCAR etc.) for each of the risks described.

Type
Biological Sciences
Copyright
Copyright © Antarctic Science Ltd 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Agnew, D.J., Marlow, T.R., Lorenzen, K., Pompert, J., Wakeford, R.C.Tingley, G.A. 2003. Influence of Drake Passage oceanography on the parasitic infection of individual year-classes of southern blue whiting Micromesistius australis. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 254, 281291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aoki, S., Bindoff, N.L.Church, J.A. 2005. Interdecadal water mass changes in the Southern Ocean between 30°E and 160°E. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, 10.1029/2004GL022220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aronson, R.B., Thatje, S., Clarke, A., Peck, L.S., Blake, D.B., Wilga, C.D.Seibel, B.A. 2007. Climate change and invasibility of the Antarctic benthos. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 38, 129154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E.Rothery, P. 2004. Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature, 432, 100103.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E.A., Rothery, P., Loeb, V., Ross, R.M., Quetin, L.B., Schmidt, K., Fretwell, P., Murphy, E.J., Tarling, G.A.Fleming, A.H. 2008. Oceanic circumpolar habitats of Antarctic krill. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 362, 123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, A.J., Pereira, S.L., Haddrath, O.P.Edge, K.A. 2006. Multiple gene evidence for expansion of extant penguins out of Antarctica due to global cooling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B273, 1117.Google Scholar
Barbraud, C.Weimerskirch, H. 2006a. Antarctic avian phenology and climate change. Journal of Ornithology, 147, 5252.Google Scholar
Barbraud, C.Weimerskirch, H. 2006b. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, 62486251.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Barnes, D.K.A., Hodgson, D.A., Convey, P., Allen, C.S.Clarke, A. 2006. Incursion and excursion of Antarctic biota: past, present and future. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 15, 121142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beaugrand, G., Brander, K.M., Lindley, J.A., Souissi, S.Reid, P.C. 2003. Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature, 426, 661664.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Belchier, M.Collins, M.A. 2008. Recruitment and body size in relation to temperature in juvenile Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) at South Georgia. Marine Biology, 155, 493503.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brander, K.M. 2005. Cod recruitment is strongly affected by climate when stock biomass is low. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62, 339343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonner, W.N. 1980. Whales. Poole: Blandford Press, 278 pp.Google Scholar
Bonner, W.N. 1984. Conservation in the Antarctic. In Laws, R.M., ed. Antarctic ecology, vol. II. London: Academic Press, 821850.Google Scholar
Castini, M., Lovgren, J., Hjelm, J., Cardinale, M., Molinero, J.C.Kornilovs, G. 2008. Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B275, 17931801.Google Scholar
Chambers, L.E., Hughes, L.Weston, M.A. 2005. Climate change and its impact on Australia’s avifauna. Emu, 105, 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, J.C.L.Liu, K.S. 2004. Typhoon intensity in a warming world. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 85, 660661.Google Scholar
Cheung, W.W.L., Lam, V.W.Y., Sarmiento, J.L., Kearney, K., Watson, R.Pauly, D. 2009. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries, 10, 235251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chown, S.L.Convey, P. 2007. Spatial and temporal variability across life’s hierarchies in the terrestrial Antarctic. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B362, 23072331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, A.Harris, C.M. 2003. Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change. Environmental Conservation, 30, 125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, M.A., Ross, K.A., Belchier, M.Reid, K. 2007. Distribution and diet of juvenile patagonian toothfish on the South Georgia and Shag Rocks shelves (Southern Ocean). Marine Biology, 152, 135147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Constable, A.J.Doust, S. 2009. Southern Ocean sentinel – an international program to assess climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Hobart, TAS: ACE CRC, Commonwealth of Australia, and WWF-Australia, 82 pp.Google Scholar
Convey, P. 2006. Antarctic climate change and its influences on terrestrial ecosystems. In Bergstrom, D.M., Convey, P. & Huiskes, A.H.L., eds. Trends in Antarctic terrestrial and limnetic ecosystems: Antarctica as a global indicator. Dordrecht: Springer, 253272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Convey, P. 2007. Influences on and origins of terrestrial biodiversity of the sub-Antarctic islands. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, 141, 8393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, A.J., Poncet, S., Cooper, A.P.R., Herbert, D.J.Christie, D. 2010. Glacier retreat on South Georgia and implications for the spread of rats. Antarctic Science, 22, 10.1017/S0954102010000064.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croxall, J.P., Trathan, P.N.Murphy, E.J. 2002. Environmental change and Antarctic seabird populations. Science, 297, 15101514.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Forcada, J., Trathan, P.N.Murphy, E.J. 2008. Life history buffering in Antarctic mammals and birds against changing patterns of climate and environmental variation. Global Change Biology, 14, 24732488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forcada, J., Trathan, P.N., Reid, K.Murphy, E.J. 2005. The effects of global climate variability in pup production of Antarctic fur seals. Ecology, 86, 24082417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forcada, J., Trathan, P.N., Reid, K., Murphy, E.J.Croxall, J.P. 2006. Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming. Global Change Biology, 12, 411423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francis, R.I.C.C. 2006. Measuring the strength of environment–recruitment relationships: the importance of including predictor screening within cross-validations. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63, 594599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraser, W.R.Hofmann, E.E. 2003. A predator’s perspective on causal links between climate change, physical forcing and ecosystem response. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 265, 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraser, W.R., Trivelpiece, W.Z., Ainley, D.G.Trivelpiece, S. 1992. Increases in Antarctic penguin populations - reduced competition with whales or a loss of sea ice due to environmental warming. Polar Biology, 11, 525531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frenot, Y., Chown, S.L., Whinam, J., Selkirk, P.M., Convey, P., Skotnicki, M.Bergstrom, D.M. 2005. Biological invasions in the Antarctic: extent, impacts and implications. Biological Reviews, 80, 4572.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gille, S.T. 2002. Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science, 295, 12751277.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gille, S.T. 2008. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean. Journal of Climate, 21, 47494765.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halpern, B.S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K.A., Kappel, C.V., Micheli, F., D’agrosa, C., Bruno, J.F., Casey, K.S., Ebert, C., Fox, H.E., Fujita, R., Heinemann, D., Lenihan, H.S., Madin, E.M.P., Perry, M.T., Selig, E.R., Spalding, M., Steneck, R.Watson, R. 2008. A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science, 319, 948952.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hewitt, R.P., Watkins, J.L., Naganobu, M., Sushin, V., Brierley, A.S., Demer, D., Kasatkina, S., Takao, Y., Goss, C., Malyshko, A., Brandon, M., Kawaguchi, S., Siegel, V., Trathan, P.N., Emery, J., Everson, I.Miller, D. 2004. Biomass of Antarctic krill in the Scotia Sea in January/February 2000 and its use in revising an estimate of precautionary yield. Deep-Sea Research II, 51, 12151236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, S.L., Reid, K.North, A.W. 2005. Recruitment of mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) at South Georgia indicated by predator diets and its relationship with sea surface temperature. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 62, 25302537.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogg, A.M., Meredith, M.P., Blundell, J.R.Wilson, C. 2008. Eddy heat flux in the Southern Ocean: response to variable wind forcing. Journal of Climate, 21, 608620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooper, M. 2007. The ferocious summer: Palmer’s penguins and the warming of Antarctica. London: Profile Books, 320 pp.Google Scholar
Jenouvrier, S., Caswell, H., Barbraud, C., Holland, M., Stroeve, J.Weimerskirch, H. 2009. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 27, 18441847.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirby, R.R., Beaugrand, G.Lindley, J.A. 2009. Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem. Ecosystems, 12, 548561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kock, K.-H. 1992. Antarctic fish and fisheries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 359 pp.Google Scholar
Laws, R.M. 1985. The ecology of the Southern Ocean. American Scientist, 73, 2640.Google Scholar
Leaper, R., Cooke, J., Trathan, P.N., Reid, K., Rowntree, V.Payne, R. 2006. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics. Biology Letters, 2, 289292.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mayewski, P.A., Meredith, M.P., Summerhayes, C.P., Turner, J., Worby, A., Barrett, P.J., Casassa, G., Bertler, N.A.N., Bracegirdle, T., Garabato, A.C.N., Bromwich, D., Campbell, H., Hamilton, G.S., Lyons, W.B., Maasch, K.A., Aoki, S., Xiao, C.van Ommen, T. 2009. State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system. Reviews of Geophyics, 47, RG1003.Google Scholar
Mollmann, C., Muller-Karulis, B., Kornilovs, G.St John, M.A. 2008. Effects of climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feedback loops in a simple ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65, 302310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, E.J., Trathan, P.N., Watkins, J.L., Reid, K., Meredith, M.P., Forcada, J., Thorpe, S.E., Johnston, N.M.Rothery, P. 2007. Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B274, 30573067.Google Scholar
Myers, R.A. 1998. When do environment-recruitment correlations work? Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 8, 283305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nellemann, C., Hain, S.Alder, J., eds. 2008. In Dead Water - merging of climate change with pollution, over-harvest, and infestations in the world’s fishing grounds. GRID-Arendal, Norway: United Nations Environment Programme, 64 pp.Google Scholar
Nicol, S. 2006. Krill, currents, and sea ice: Euphausia superba and its changing environment. BioScience, 56, 111120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parkinson, C.L. 2002. Trends in the length of the Southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979–99. Annals of Glaciology, 34, 435440.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parkinson, C.L. 2004. Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider linkages: insights revealed from models and observations. Antarctic Science, 16, 387400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parmelee, D.F.Parmelee, J.M. 1987. Updated penguin distribution for Anvers Island, Antarctica. British Antarctic Survey Bulletin, No. 76, 6573.Google Scholar
Parry, L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van Der Linden, P.J.Hanson, C.E., eds. 2007. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 976 pp.Google Scholar
Peck, L.S. 2005. Prospects for surviving climate change in Antarctic aquatic species. Frontiers in Zoology, 2, 10.1186/1742-9994-2-9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Peck, L.S.Conway, L.Z. 2000. The myth of metabolic cold adaptation: oxygen consumption in stenothermal Antarctic bivalves. Evolutionary Biology Bivalvia, 177, 441450.Google Scholar
Peck, L.S., Convey, P.Barnes, D.K.A. 2006. Environmental constraints on life histories in Antarctic ecosystems: tempos, timings and predictability. Biological Reviews, 81, 75109.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Peck, L.S., Webb, K.E.Bailey, D.M. 2004. Extreme sensitivity of biological function to temperature in Antarctic marine species. Functional Ecology, 18, 625630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peck, L.S., Clark, M.S., Morley, S.A., Massey, A.Rossetti, H. 2009. Animal temperature limits and ecological relevance: effects of size, activity and rates of change. Functional Ecology, 23, 248256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R.Reynolds, J.D. 2005. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science, 308, 19121915.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Poncet, S.Poncet, J. 1987. Censuses of penguin populations of the Antarctic Peninsula, 1983–87. British Antarctic Survey Bulletin, No. 77, 109129.Google Scholar
Pörtner, H.O., Peck, L.Somero, G. 2007. Thermal limits and adaptation in marine Antarctic ectotherms: an integrative view. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B362, 22332258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quayle, W.C., Peck, L.S., Peat, H., Ellis-Evans, J.C.Harrigan, P.R. 2002. Extreme responses to climate change in Antarctic lakes. Science, 295, 645645.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rodionov, S.N. 2004. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, 10.1029/2004GL019448.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rootes, D.M. 1988. The status of birds at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands. British Antarctic Survey Bulletin, No. 80, 87119.Google Scholar
Royal Society. 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Policy document 12/05, June 2005. London: Royal Society, 60 pp.Google Scholar
SC-CCAMLR. 2003. Report of the Scientific Committee of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, SC-CAMLR-XXII/Annex 4. Hobart: CCAMLR.Google Scholar
SC-CCAMLR. 2007. Report of the Scientific Committee of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, SC-CAMLR-XXVI/Annex 4. Hobart: CCAMLR.Google Scholar
SC-CCAMLR. 2008. Report of the Scientific Committee of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, SC-CAMLR-XXVII/Annex 4. Hobart: CCAMLR.Google Scholar
SC-CCAMLR. 2009. Report of the Scientific Committee of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, SC-CAMLR-XXVIII/Annex 4. Hobart: CCAMLR.Google Scholar
Sibert, J., Hampton, J., Kleiber, P.Maunder, M. 2006. Biomass, size, and trophic status of top predators in the Pacific Ocean. Science, 314, 17731776.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shust, K.V. 1978. On the distribution and biology of members of the genus Micromesistius (Gadidae). Journal of Ichthyology, 18, 490493.Google Scholar
Smale, D.A.Barnes, D.K.A. 2008. Likely responses of the Antarctic benthos to climate-related changes in physical disturbance during the 21st century, based primarily on evidence from the West Antarctic Peninsula region. Ecography, 31, 289305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L.Chen, Z., eds. 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.Google Scholar
Stammerjohn, S.E., Martinson, D.G., Smith, R.C.Iannuzzi, R.A. 2008. Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula region: spatio-temporal variability from ecological and climate change perspectives. Deep-Sea Research II, 55, 20412058.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P., Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C.Shindell, D.T. 2009. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature, 457, 459-4U4.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Thompson, D.W.J.Solomon, S. 2002. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science, 296, 895899.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Trathan, P.N.Murphy, E.J. 2002. Sea surface temperature anomalies near South Georgia: relationships with the Pacific El Niño regions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 80758078.Google Scholar
Trathan, P.N., Croxall, J.P.Murphy, E.J. 1996. Dynamics of Antarctic penguin populations in relation to the inter-annual variability in sea-ice distribution. Polar Biology, 16, 321330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trathan, P.N., Forcada, J.Murphy, E.J. 2007. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B362, 23512365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trathan, P.N., Murphy, E.J., Forcada, J., Croxall, J.P., Reid, K.Thorpe, S.E. 2006. Physical forcing in the southwest Atlantic: ecosystem control. In Boyd, I.L., Wanless, S. & Camphuysen, C.J., eds. Top predators in marine ecosystems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2845.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trathan, P.N., Brierley, A.S., Brandon, M.A., Bone, D.G., Goss, C., Grant, S.A., Murphy, E.J.Watkins, J.L. 2003. Oceanographic variability and changes in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) abundance at South Georgia. Fisheries Oceanography, 12, 569583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turner, J., Bindschadler, R., Convey, P., Di Prisco, G., Fahrbach, E., Gutt, J., Hodgson, D., Mayewski, P.Summerhayes, C., eds. 2009a. Antarctic change and the environment. Cambridge: Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research, 526 pp.Google Scholar
Turner, J., Comiso, J.C., Marshall, G.J., Lachlan-Cope, T.A., Bracegirdle, T., Maksym, T., Meredith, M.P., Wang, Z.M.Orr, A. 2009b. Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L08502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vaughan, D.G., Marshall, G.J., Connolley, W.M., King, J.C.Mulvaney, R. 2001. Climate change - devil in the detail. Science, 293, 17771779.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Vaughan, D.G., Marshall, G.J., Connolley, W.M., Parkinson, C., Mulvaney, R., Hodgson, D.A., King, J.C., Pudsey, C.J.Turner, J. 2003. Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Climate Change, 60, 243274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weimerskirch, H., Inchausti, P., Guinet, C.Barbraud, C. 2003. Trends in bird and seal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean. Antarctic Science, 15, 249256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitehouse, M.J., Meredith, M.P., Rothery, P., Atkinson, A., Ward, P.Korb, R.E. 2008. Rapid warming of the ocean around South Georgia, Southern Ocean, during the 20th century: forcings, characteristics and implications for lower trophic levels. Deep-Sea Research I, 55, 12181228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, T.D. 1995. The penguins. New York: Oxford University Press, 295 pp.Google Scholar