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The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2016

Liyun Zhao ,
Ran Ding  and
John C. Moore
Liyun Zhao
Affiliation:
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China
Ran Ding
Affiliation:
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
John C. Moore*
Affiliation:
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
*
Correspondence: John C. Moore <[email protected]>
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Abstract

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We estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a–1), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 1°x1° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.

Keywords

glacier mass balanceglacier modellingmountain glaciers
Type
Paper
Information
Annals of Glaciology , Volume 57 , Issue 71 , March 2016 , pp. 223 - 231
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2016

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