Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-21T12:32:47.691Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Mortality in Ireland at Advanced Ages, 1950-2006: Part 1: Crude Rates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2011

S. F. Whelan
S. F. Whelan
Affiliation:
School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Ireland., Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We examine the data and techniques underlying the estimation of mortality rates at older ages in Ireland since 1950. Previous attempts to elucidate the level and trends in mortality at advanced ages in Ireland have been frustrated by significant non-random biases arising from age exaggeration and age heaping, together with a lack of correspondence, growing with increasing age, between the exposed-to-risk estimated from census data and the death count from registration data. Applying the method of extinct generations, we re-estimate crude mortality rates and report the somewhat unexpected result that mortality rates were lower, and did not increase as steeply with age, than those recorded in the official Irish Life Tables. The reestimated crude rates show, for both sexes, a very slight decrease in mortality rates between the 1950s and 1980s up to age 90 years, with no improvement discernible at older ages. Improvements at advanced ages in Ireland have lagged behind those in England and Wales and other developed countries over the same period. The companion paper, Mortality in Ireland at Advanced Ages, 1950–2006: Part 2: Graduated Rates, Whelan (2009), graduates the crude rates and extends the method of extinct generations to estimate mortality rates of more recent, still surviving, generations.

Keywords

Irish Population MortalityMortality Trends in IrelandMethod of Extinct GenerationsAge HeapingCentenariansOldest Person in IrelandLongevity
Type
Papers
Information
Annals of Actuarial Science , Volume 4 , Issue 1 , March 2009 , pp. 33 - 66
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andreev, K., Jdanov, D., Soroko, E. & Shkolnikov, V. (2003). Methodology: Kannisto–Thatcher database on old age mortality. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Online].Google Scholar
Beatty, R. & Rodgers, M. (2000). Reviewing the mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland. Population Trends 99 (Spring), 20–26.Google Scholar
Benjamin, B. & Pollard, J.H. (1980). The analysis of mortality and other actuarial statistics. Heinemann, London (2nd edition).Google Scholar
Boldsen, J.L. & Paine, R.R. (1995). The evolution of human longevity from the mesolithic to the middle ages: an analysis based on skeletal data. In (Jeune, B. & Vaupel, J.W., eds.) Exceptional longevity: from prehistory to the present. Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.Google Scholar
Bowerman, W.G. (1939). Centenarians. Transactions of the Actuarial Society of America, 40, 360–378.Google Scholar
Brown, P.G. (1930). Irish free state life table. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, LXI, 96–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Commission on Emigration and Other Population Problems (1956). Report of the commission on emigration and other population problems, 1948–1954. The Stationery Office, Dublin.Google Scholar
CSO (1965). Irish Life Tables nos. 6 and 6A, 1960–1962. In Irish Statistical Bulletin, June 1965. Central Statistics Office. Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin.Google Scholar
CSO (1986). Irish Life Tables nos. 10 and 10A, 1980–1982. In Irish Statistical Bulletin Sept-Dec 1985. Central Statistics Office. Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin.Google Scholar
CSO (2004). Irish Life Tables no. 14, 2001–2003. Central Statistics Office. Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin.Google Scholar
CSO (2008). Population and migration estimates. Central Statistics Office. Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin.Google Scholar
Easton, J. (1799). Human longevity: recording the name, age, place of residence, and year, of the decease of 1,712 persons, who attained a century, & upwards, from A.D. 66 to 1799: comprising a period of 1,733 years: with anecdotes of the most remarkable. Salisbury: Printed and sold by James Easton … sold also by John White.Google Scholar
Falk, O.T. (1909). Discussion of Marr (1909). Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, XLIII, 265–268.Google Scholar
Gallop, A.P. (2002). Mortality at advanced ages in the United Kingdom. Paper presented to Society of Actuaries Symposium, Living to 100 and beyond: Survival at Advanced Ages. January 17–18, 2002, Florida.Google Scholar
Gallop, A.P. & Macdonald, A.S. (2005). Mortality at advanced ages in the United Kingdom. Paper presented to Society of Actuaries Symposium, Living to 100 and beyond. January 12–14, 2005, Florida.Google Scholar
Geary, R.C. (1929). Memorandum on the construction of saorstat life table no. 1. In Saorstat Eireann, Census of Population 1926, V, 220–221.Google Scholar
Health Statistics Quarterly (2000). Quality of the reporting ‘age at death’ in death registration in Northern Ireland. In Brief, Health Statistics Quarterly, p3.Google Scholar
Humphrey, G.T. (1970). Mortality at the oldest ages. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 96, 105–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kannisto, V. (1994). Development of oldest-old mortality, 1950–1990: evidence from 28 developed countries. Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.Google Scholar
King, G. (1909). On a new method of constructing and of graduating mortality and other tables. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, XLIII, 109–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laslett, P. (1999). The bewildering history of the history of longevity. In (Jeune, B. & Vaupel, J.W., eds.) Validation of exceptional longevity. Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.Google Scholar
Marr, V. (1909). Some financial considerations of the old age pension scheme. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, XLIII, 245–265.Google Scholar
Myers, R.J. (1940). Errors and bias in the reporting of ages in census data. Transactions of the Actuarial Society of America, XLI (103 & 104), 395–415.Google Scholar
Office for National Statistics (1997). English Life Table no. 14. Series DS No. 14. The Stationery Office, London.Google Scholar
Ó Gráda, C. (2002). ‘The greatest blessing of all': the old age pension in Ireland. Past & Present (Oxford), 175, 124–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pollard, A.H. (1970). Random mortality fluctuations and the binomial hypothesis. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 96, 251–264.Google Scholar
Robine, J.-M. & Allard, M. (1999). Jeanne Calment: validation of the duration of her life. In (Jeune, B. & Vaupel, J.W., eds.) Validation of exceptional longevity, Monographs on Population Aging, 6, Odense University Press.Google Scholar
Thatcher, A.R. (1981). Centenarians. Population Trends, 25, 11–14.Google Scholar
Thatcher, A.R. (1987). Mortality at the highest ages. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 114, 327–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thatcher, A.R. (1992). Trends in numbers and mortality at high ages in England and Wales. Population Studies, 46, 411–426.Google Scholar
Thatcher, A.R., Kannisto, V. & Vaupel, J.W. (1998). The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120. Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.Google Scholar
Thatcher, A.R. (1999a). The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A, 162 (1), 5–43.Google Scholar
Thatcher, A.R. (1999b). Katherine Plunket: A well-documented super-centenarian in 1930. In (Jeune, B. & Vaupel, J.W., eds.) Validation of exceptional longevity, Monographs on Population Aging, 6, Odense University Press.Google Scholar
Vincent, P. (1951). La mortalite des vieillards. Population, 6, 181–204.Google Scholar
Whelan, S.F. (2008). Projecting population mortality for Ireland. Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, XXXVII (2007/2008), 135–163.Google Scholar
Whelan, S.F. (2009). Mortality in Ireland at advanced ages, 1950–2006: Part 2: Graduated rates. Annals of Actuarial Science, 4, 67–104.Google Scholar
Willets, R.C. (2004). The cohort effect: insights and explanations. British Actuarial Journal, 10, 833–877.Google Scholar
Willets, R.C., Gallop, A.P., Leandro, P.A., Lu, J.L.C., Macdonald, A.S., Miller, K.A., Richards, S.J., Robjohns, N., Ryan, J.P. & Waters, H.R. (2004). Longevity in the 21st century. British Actuarial Journal, 10, 685–832.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilmoth, J.R. (1997). In search of limits. In (Wachter, K. & Finch, C., eds.) Between Zeus and the salmon: the biodemography of longevity. National Academic Press. Washington.Google Scholar
Wood, H. (1908). Methods of registering and estimating the populations of Ireland before 1864. Journal of The Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 89 (1909), 219–229. Available at www.ssisi.ieGoogle Scholar