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Healthy life expectancy in China: Modelling and implications for public and private insurance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 May 2020

Han Li ,
Katja Hanewald Open the ORCID record for Katja Hanewald [Opens in a new window]  and
Shang Wu
Han Li*
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University, Australia, and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)
Katja Hanewald
Affiliation:
School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney, and Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)
Shang Wu
Affiliation:
First State Super and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Already home to 23% of the global elderly population, China will experience further demographic change in the coming decades. To address the consequences of population ageing, the Chinese government is implementing major social insurance reforms and promotes the development of private insurance markets. We aim to inform these initiatives by developing a new method to project healthy life expectancy (HLE) in different regions. HLE is an important population health measure which is increasingly used in the actuarial literature. Our new approach relies on publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for life expectancy and HLE for 139 countries. We use the model to estimate HLE at birth in 2015 for 31 province-level regions in China for both males and females. We discuss the implications of our results for planned increases in the retirement age in China and for long-term care insurance pricing.

Keywords

Healthy life expectancyPredictive regression modellingHealth inequalityChina
Type
Paper
Information
Annals of Actuarial Science , Volume 15 , Issue 1 , March 2021 , pp. 40 - 56
Copyright
© Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2020

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