Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T19:42:04.232Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Benjamin Radcliff
Benjamin Radcliff*
Affiliation:
University of Notre Dame
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

While the economic voting literature is voluminous, comparatively little attention has been paid to the question of how—or whether—the economy affects turnout. I address this issue by examining national elections in 29 countries. Using time series data, the initial findings are replicated by a case study of American presidential and midterm elections since 1896. It is argued that the effect of economic adversity depends upon the degree of welfare state development. This relationship is argued to be nonlinear, so that mobilization occurs at either extreme while withdrawal obtains in the middle range. The importance to democratic theory, the study of elections, and the politics of welfare policy are discussed.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 86 , Issue 2 , June 1992 , pp. 444 - 454
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1992 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aaron, J. 1967. “Social Security: International Comparisons.” In Studies in Economics of Income Maintenance, ed. Eckstein, O.. Washington: Brookings.Google Scholar
Achen, Christopher. 1980. “Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments.” University of California, Berkeley. Mimeograph.Google Scholar
Arcelus, Francisco, and Meltzer, Allan H.. 1975. “The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69:1232–39.10.2307/1955283Google Scholar
Belsley, David A., Kuh, Edwin, and Welsh, Roy E.. 1980. Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity. New York: Wiley and Sons.10.1002/0471725153Google Scholar
Butler, David, Penniman, Howard R., and Ranney, Austin. 1981. Democracy at the Polls. Washington: American Enterprise Institute Press.Google Scholar
Caldeira, Gregory A., Patterson, Samuel C., and Markko, Gregory A.. 1985. “Getting Out the Vote.” Journal of Politics 47(3):490–509.10.2307/2130893Google Scholar
Cohen, J. 1968. “Multiple Regression as a General Data-Analytic System.” Psychological Bulletin 70:426–43.10.1037/h0026714Google Scholar
Conway, M. Margaret. 1981. “Political Participation in Midterm Congressional Elections.” American Political Quarterly 9(2): 221–44.10.1177/1532673X8100900205Google Scholar
Cutright, P. 1965. “Political Structure, Economic Development, and Social Security Programs.” American Journal of Sociology 70:537–50.10.1086/223930Google Scholar
Eulau, Heinz, and Lewis-Beck, Michael, eds. 1985. Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes. New York: Agathon.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American Elections: A Micro-Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 22:426–43.10.2307/2110623Google Scholar
Gough, P. 1984. “Economic Conditions and Congressional Elections: An Attempt To Control for the Depression.” American Politics Quarterly 12(1):71–88.10.1177/1532673X8401200104Google Scholar
International Labor Office. 1985. The Cost of Social Security, 1978–1980. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. 1975. Politics and Social Equality: A Comparative Analysis. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. 1987. “Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies.” American Political Science Review 81:405–24.10.2307/1961959Google Scholar
Korpi, Walter. 1980. “Social Policy and Distributional Conflict in the Capitalist Democracies.” West European Politics, October.Google Scholar
Kramer, Gerald. 1971. “Short-Term Fluctuations in the U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964.” American Political Science Review 77:92–111.10.2307/1956013Google Scholar
Kramer, Gerald. 1983. “The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate Versus Individual Level Findings on Economics and Elections and Sociotropic Voting.” American Political Science Review 77:92–111.10.2307/1956013Google Scholar
Lane, R. 1959. Political Life. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Lau, Richard R. 1982. “Negativity in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 4:353–78.10.1007/BF00986969Google Scholar
Lau, Richard R. 1985. “Two Explanations for Negativity Effects in Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 29:119–38.10.2307/2111215Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Lockerbie, Brad. 1989. “Economics, Voters, Protests: Western European Cases.” Comparative Political Studies 22(2):155–77.10.1177/0010414089022002002Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1984. Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.10.2307/j.ctt1ww3w2tGoogle Scholar
Mackie, Thomas, and Rose, Richard. 1982. The International Almanac of Electoral History. 2nd ed. New York: Facts on File.10.1007/978-1-349-06321-5Google Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1984. Presidential Popularity and the Economy. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham. 1980. “Voting Turnout in Thirty Democracies.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, ed. Niemi, R. and Weisberg, H..Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham. 1986. “American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective.” American Political Science Review 80:17–43.10.2307/1957082Google Scholar
Pyror, Frederic L. 1968. Public Expenditures in Communist and Capitalist Nations. Homewood, IL: Irwin.Google Scholar
Ringen, Stein. 1987. The Possibility of Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1982. Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 26(1):25–46.10.2307/2110837Google Scholar
Schlozman, Kay Lehman, and Verba, Sidney. 1979. Injury to Insult. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Sniderman, Paul M., and Brody, Richard A.. 1977. “Coping: The Ethic of Self Reliance.” American Journal of Political Science 21(3):501–23.10.2307/2110579Google Scholar
Southwell, Priscilla L. 1988. “The Mobilization Hypothesis and Voter Turnout in Congressional Elections.” Western Political Quarterly 41(2):173–88.10.1177/106591298804100204Google Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1985. “Regression in Time and Space.” American Journal of Political Science 29(4):914–47.10.2307/2111187Google Scholar
U.S. Social Security Administration. 1984. Social Security Programs throughout the World—1983. Washington: SSA.Google Scholar
Weatherford, M. Stephen. 1978. “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: Class Differences in the Political Response to Recession.” American Journal of Political Science 22(3):917–38.10.2307/2110599Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1987. “Empirical Democratic Theory.” In Competitive Elections in Developing Countries, ed. Weiner, M. and Ozbudun, E.. Washington: American Enterprise Institute Press.Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron, and Ozbudun, Ergun. 1987. Competitive Elections in Developing Countries. Washington: American Enterprise Institute Press.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond, and Rosenstone, Steven J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.