Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T05:55:54.617Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Semblance of Democratic Revolution: Coalitions in Ukraine's Orange Revolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 July 2013

MARK R. BEISSINGER*
Affiliation:
Princeton University
*
Mark R. Beissinger is Henry W. Putnam Professor, Department of Politics, Princeton University, 237 Corwin Hall, Princeton, NJ08544-1013 ([email protected])

Abstract

Using two unusual surveys, this study analyzes participation in the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, comparing participants with revolution supporters, opponents, counter-revolutionaries, and the apathetic/inactive. As the analysis shows, most revolutionaries were weakly committed to the revolution's democratic master narrative, and the revolution's spectacular mobilizational success was largely due to its mobilization of cultural cleavages and symbolic capital to construct a negative coalition across diverse policy groupings. A contrast is drawn between urban civic revolutions like the Orange Revolution and protracted peasant revolutions. The strategies associated with these revolutionary models affect the roles of revolutionary organization and selective incentives and the character of revolutionary coalitions. As the comparison suggests, postrevolutionary instability may be built into urban civic revolutions due to their reliance on a rapidly convened negative coalition of hundreds of thousands, distinguished by fractured elites, lack of consensus over fundamental policy issues, and weak commitment to democratic ends.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Alexander, Jeffrey C. 2011. Performative Revolution in Egypt: An Essay in Cultural Power. London, UK: Bloomsbury Academic.Google Scholar
Andrews, Rick, and Currim, Imran. 2003. “Retention of Latent Segments in Regression-Based Marketing Models.” International Journal of Research in Marketing 20 (4): 315–21.Google Scholar
Arel, Dominique. 2002. “Interpreting ‘Nationality’ and ‘Language’ in the 2001 Ukrainian Census.” Post-Soviet Affairs 18 (3): 213–49.Google Scholar
Arel, Dominique. 2007. “Why and How It Happened: Orange Ukraine Chooses the West, but Without the East.” In Aspects of the Orange Revolution III: The Context and Dynamics of the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Election, eds. Bredies, Ingmar, Umland, Andreas, and Yakushik, Valentin. Stuttgart, Germany: Ibidem-Verlag: 3553.Google Scholar
Aslund, Anders. 2005. “The Economic Policy of Ukraine After the Orange Revolution.”Eurasian Geography and Economics 46 (5): 327–53.Google Scholar
Beissinger, Mark R. 2002. Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beissinger, Mark R. 2007. “Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions.” Perspectives on Politics (June): 259–76.Google Scholar
Beissinger, Mark, Jamal, Amaney, and Mazur, Kevin. 2012. “Who Participates in ‘Democratic’ Revolutions? A Comparison of the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions.” Paper prepared for the annual convention of the American Political Science Association. August 29–September 2, New Orleans, LA.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2008. “Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World.” World Politics 60 (April): 390437.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie J., and Wolchik, Sharon L.. 2011. Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dix, Robert H. 1984. “Why Revolutions Succeed and Fail.”Polity 16 (3) (Spring): 423–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diuk, Nadia. 2006. “The Triumph of Civil Society.” In Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough, Åslund, Anders and McFaul, Michael. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 6984.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.”American Political Science Review 97 (1) (February): 7590.Google Scholar
Fonseca, Jaime R. S. 2008. “The Application of Mixture Modeling and Information Criteria for Discovering Patterns of Coronary Heart Disease.” Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods 3 (4): 292303.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A. 1994. “Is Revolution Individually Rational?Rationality and Society 6: 139–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A. 2001. “Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory.”Annual Review of Political Science 4: 139–87.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A. 2011. “Cross-class Coalitions and the Making of the Arab Revolts of 2011.” Swiss Political Science Review 17: 457–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodwin, Jeff. 2001. No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945–1991. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granovetter, Mark S. 1973. “The Strength of Weak Ties.” American Journal of Sociology 78 (6): 1360–80.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hale, Henry E. 2005. “Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post-Soviet Eurasia.” World Politics 58 (October): 133–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hardin, Russell. 1995. One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Welzel, Christian. 2005. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Johnson, Chalmers. 1982. Revolutionary Change. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Karatnycky, Adrian. 2005. “Ukraine's Orange Revolution.” Foreign Affairs 84 (2): 3552.Google Scholar
Klandermans, Bert. 2010. “Peace Demonstrations or Anti-Government Marches? The Political Attitudes of the Protesters.” In The World Says No To War: Demonstrations Against the War on Iraq, eds. Walgrave, Stefaan and Ruchts, Dieter. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, 98118.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1995. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kuzio, Taras. 2010. “Nationalism, Identity and Civil Society in Ukraine: Understanding the Orange Revolution.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 43: 285–96.Google Scholar
Lane, David. 2008. “The Orange Revolution: ‘People's Revolution’ or Revolutionary Coup?The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 10 (4): 525–49.Google Scholar
Lichbach, Marc I. 1995. The Rebel's Dilemma. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.” American Political Science Review 53 (1): 69105.Google Scholar
Marwell, Gerald, and Oliver, Pamela. 1993. The Critical Mass in Collective Action: A Micro‐Social Theory. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
McAdam, Doug, and Paulsen, Ronelle. 1993. “Specifying the Relationship between Social Ties and Social Activism.” American Journal of Sociology 99 (November): 640–67.Google Scholar
McFaul, Michael. 2010. “Importing Revolution: Internal and External Factors in Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough.” In Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World, eds. Bunce, Valerie, McFaul, Michael, and Stoner-Weiss, Kathryn. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 329.Google Scholar
Mueller, Lisa. 2011. “Democratic Revolutionaries or Pocketbook Protestors? The Comparative Salience of Personal Rule and Famine in the Nigerien Uprisings of 2009.” Paper presented at the Working Group in African Political Economy, Stanford University. http://cega.berkeley.edu/assets/miscellaneous_files/wgape/21_Mueller.pdf (Accessed March 1, 2013).Google Scholar
Myagkov, Mikhail, Ordeshook, Peter C., and Shakin, Dmitry. 2005. “Fraud or Fairytales: Russia and Ukraine's Electoral Experience.” Post-Soviet Affairs 21 (2): 91131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olsson-Yaouzis, Nicolas. 2010. “Revolutionaries, Despots, and Rationality.” Rationality and Society 22 (3): 283–99.Google Scholar
OSCE Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. 2005. “Ukraine Presidential Election 31 October, 21 November and 26 December 2004.” http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/14674.Google Scholar
Panina, Natalya. 2005. Ukrainian Society 1994–2005: Sociological Monitoring. Kyiv: International Center for Policy Studies.Google Scholar
Petersen, Roger D. 2001. Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Popkin, Samuel L. 1979. The Rational Peasant: The Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 1993. Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rustow, Dankwart A. 1970. “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” Comparative Politics 2 (3): 337–63.Google Scholar
Scott, James C. 1976. The Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Skocpol, Theda. 1979. States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slater, Dan. 2009. “Revolutions, Crackdowns, and Quiescence: Communal Elites and Democratic Mobilization in Southeast Asia.” American Journal of Sociology 115 (1): 203–54.Google Scholar
Stepanenko, Viktor. 2005. “How Ukrainians View Their Orange Revolution: Public Opinion and the National Peculiarities of Citizenry Political Activities,” Demokratizatsiya 13 (4) (Fall): 595616.Google Scholar
Stepanenko, Victor. 2006. “Civil Society in Post-Soviet Ukraine: Civic Ethos in the Framework of Corrupted Sociality?East European Politics and Societies 20 (4): 571–97.Google Scholar
Thompson, Mark R. 2004. Democratic Revolutions: Asia and Eastern Europe. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Thompson, Mark R., and Kuntz, Philipp. 2004. “Stolen Elections: The Case of the Serbian October.” Journal of Democracy 15 (4): 159–72.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1993. European Revolutions, 1492–1992. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Trotsky, Leon. 1932. The History of the Russian Revolution, Vol. 1. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2007. “Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions.” Perspectives on Politics 5 (3): 535–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tullock, Gordon. 1971. “The Paradox of Revolution.” Public Choice 11: 8999.Google Scholar
Vachudova, Milada Anna. 2005. Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration After Communism. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Vermunt, Jeroen K., and Magidson, Jay. 2002. “Latent Class Cluster Analysis.” In Applied Latent Class Analysis, eds. Hagenaars, J. A. and McCutcheon, A. L.. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 88106.Google Scholar
Way, Lucan. 2008. “The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions.” Journal of Democracy 19 (July): 5569.Google Scholar
Way, Lucan. 2010. “National Identity and Authoritarianism: Belarus and Ukraine Compared.” In Orange Revolution and Aftermath: Mobilization, Apathy, and the State in Ukraine, ed. D'Anieri, Paul. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 129–59.Google Scholar
Weinstein, Jeremy M. 2007. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
White, Stephen, and McAllister, Ian. 2009. “Rethinking the ‘Orange Revolution,’Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 25 (2): 227–54.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.