Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T01:44:26.867Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Risk and Uncertainty as Factors in the Durability of Political Coalitions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

John R. Wright
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
Arthur S. Goldberg
Affiliation:
University of Rochester

Abstract

The central purpose of this article is to shed some light on the roles that risk attitudes and uncertainty may play in determining the durability of political coalitions. Although Axelrod theorized that polarized, or “unconnected,” coalitions would be less durable than “connected” coalitions, subsequent empirical research has found little support for Axelrod's hypothesis. In this article we demonstrate theoretically that many of the anomalies associated with Axelrod's polarization hypothesis can be explained by incorporating risk attitudes and uncertainty into a logical model of a coalition maintenance process. The model we have constructed assumes that coalition members are uncertain about their ultimate payoffs and therefore are subject to persuasion and manipulation by a coalition leader. Through computer simulation we demonstrate that polarized coalitions are indeed capable of enduring for relatively long periods of time once members' risk characteristics and uncertainty are taken into consideration.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1985

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aronoff, M. J. Fission and fusion: The politics of fractionalism in the Israeli labor parties. In Belloni, F. P. & Beller, D. C. (Eds.). Faction politics: Political parties and factionalism in comparative perspective. Santa Barbara, Calif.: ABC-Clio, Inc., 1978.Google Scholar
Axelrod, R. Conflict of interest. Chicago: Markham, 1970.Google Scholar
Browne, E. C., Frendreis, J. P., & Glieber, D. W. An “events” approach to the problem of cabinet stability. Comparative Political Studies, 1984, 17, 167198.10.1177/0010414084017002003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B. Strategy, risk, and personality. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B. The war trap. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, C. The political reliability of Italian governments: An exponential survival model, American Political Science Review, 1984, 78, 318337.10.2307/1963367CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeGroot, M. H. Optimal statistical decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1970.Google Scholar
De Swaan, A. Coalition theories and cabinet formation. New York: Elsevier, 1973.Google Scholar
Dodd, L. Coalitions in parliamentary government. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976.Google Scholar
Dodd, L. The study of cabinet durability. Comparative Political Studies, 1984, 17, 155162.10.1177/0010414084017002001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper & Row, 1957.Google Scholar
Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. The utility analysis of choices involving risk. Journal of Political Economy, 1948, 56, 279304.10.1086/256692CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimsson, O. Iceland: A multilevel coalition system. In Browne, E. & Dreijmanis, J. (Eds.). Government coalitions in western democracies. New York: Longman, 1982.Google Scholar
Laver, M. Dynamic factors in government coalition formation. European Journal of Political Research, 1974, 2, 259270.10.1111/j.1475-6765.1974.tb00753.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leiserson, M. A. Coalitions in politics: A theoretical and empirical study. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Yale University, 1966.Google Scholar
Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H. Games and decisions. New York: Wiley, 1957.Google Scholar
Riker, W. The theory of political coalitions. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1962.Google Scholar
Warwick, P. The durability of coalition governments in parliamentary democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 1979, 11, 465498.10.1177/001041407901100402CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, P. Crisis and compromise: Politics in the Fourth Republic. Hamden, Conn.: Archon Books, 1964.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.