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Replicating Experiments Using Aggregate and Survey Data: The Case of Negative Advertising and Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Stephen D. Ansolabehere ,
Shanto Iyengar  and
Adam Simon
Stephen D. Ansolabehere
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Shanto Iyengar
Affiliation:
Stanford University
Adam Simon
Affiliation:
University of Washington
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Abstract

Experiments show significant demobilizing and alienating effects of negative advertising. Although internally valid, experiments may have limited external validity. Aggregate and survey data offer two ways of providing external validation for experiments. We show that survey recall measures of advertising exposure suffer from problems of internal validity due to simultaneity and measurement error, which bias estimated effects of ad exposure. We provide valid estimates of the causal effects of ad exposure for the NES surveys using instrumental variables and find that negative advertising causes lower turnout in the NES data. We also provide a careful statistical analysis of aggregate turnout data from the 1992 Senate elections that Wattenberg and Brians (1999) recommend. These aggregate data confirm our original findings. Experiments, surveys, and aggregate data all point to the same conclusion: Negative advertising demobilizes voters.

Type
Forum
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 93 , Issue 4 , December 1999 , pp. 901 - 909
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1999

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