Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T07:47:53.813Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Realignment and Macropartisanship

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2017

Michael F. Meffert ,
Helmut Norpoth  and
Anirudh V. S. Ruhil
Michael F. Meffert
Affiliation:
University of Maryland, College Park
Helmut Norpoth
Affiliation:
State University of New York at Stony Brook
Anirudh V. S. Ruhil
Affiliation:
University of Illinois at Chicago
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Aggregate party identification (macropartisanship) has exhibited substantial movement in the U.S. electorate over the last half century. We contend that a major key to that movement is a rare, massive, and enduring shift of the electoral equilibrium commonly known as a partisan realignment. The research, which is based on time-series data that employ the classic measurement of party identification, shows that the 1980 election triggered a systematic growth of Republican identification that cut deeply into the overwhelming Democratic lead dating back to the New Deal realignment. Although short-term fluctuations in macropartisanship are responsive to the elements of everyday politics, neither presidential approval nor consumer sentiment is found responsible for the 1980 shift.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 95 , Issue 4 , December 2001 , pp. 953 - 962
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Paul R., and Charles W., Ostrom. 1991. “Macropartisanship: An Empirical Reassessment.” American Political Science Review 85 (March): 181–92.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., and Charles W., Ostrom. 1992. “Question Wording and Macropartisanship: Response.” American Political Science Review 86 (June): 481–6.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., and Ostrom, Charles W. Jr. 1994. “Question Form and Context Effects in the Measurement of Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 88 (December): 955–8.Google Scholar
Anderson, Kristi. 1979. The Creation of a Democratic Majority: 1928–1936. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Beck, Paul Allen. 1974. “A Socialization Theory of Partisan Realignment.” In The Politics of Future Citizens: New Dimensions in Socialization, ed. Niemi, Richard G.. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Pp. 199–219.Google Scholar
Bishop, George F., Tuchfarber, Alfred J., and Smith, Andrew E.. 1994. “Question Form and Context Effects in the Measurement of Partisanship: Experimental Tests of the Artifact Hypothesis.” American Political Science Review 88 (December): 945–54.Google Scholar
Box, George E. P., and Jenkins, Gwilym M.. 1976. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.Google Scholar
Box, George E. P., and Tiao, G. C.. 1975. “Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70 (March): 70–9.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Smith, Renée M.. 1996. “The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship.” American Political Science Review 90 (September): 567–80.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Smith, Renée M.. 1998. “Investigating Political Dynamics Using Fractional Integration Methods.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (April): 661–89.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1970. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1981. “The 1980 Earthquake: Realignment, Reaction, or What?” In The Hidden Election: Politics and Economics in the 1980 Presidential Campaign, ed. Ferguson, Thomas and Rogers, Joel. New York: Pantheon Books. Pp. 98–140.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus. 1966. “A Classification of the Presidential Elections.” In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. New York: Wiley. Pp. 63–77.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Gurin, Gerald, and Miller, Warren E.. 1954. The Voter Decides. Evanston: Row, Peterson.Google Scholar
Carmines, Edward G., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Norpoth, Helmut, and Whiteley, Paul. 1998. “It's about Time: Modelling Political and Social Dynamics.” In Research Strategies in the Social Sciences: A Guide to New Approaches, ed. Scarbrough, Elinor and Tanenbaum, Eric. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp. 127–55.Google Scholar
Clubb, Jerome M., Flanigan, William H., and Zingale, Nancy H.. 1980. Partisan Realignments. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1966. “On the Possibility of Major Political Realignments in the South.” In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. New York: Wiley. Pp. 212–42.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1976. The Dynamics of Party Support. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 1998. “What Moves Macropartisanship? A Response to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler.” American Political Science Review 92 (December): 901–12.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Tedin, Kent L.. 1981. “The 1928–1936 Partisan Realignment: The Case for the Conversion Hypothesis.” American Political Science Review 75 (December): 951–62.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1991. “Elections and the Economy in the 1980s: Short- and Long-Term Effects.” In Politics and Economics in the Eighties, ed. Alesina, Alberto and Carliner, Geoffrey. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Pp. 17–38.Google Scholar
Green, Donald P., Palmquist, Bradley, and Schickler, Eric. 1998. “Macropartisanship: A Republican and Critique.” American Political Science Review 92 (December): 883–900.Google Scholar
Hurley, Patricia A. 1991. “Partisan Representation, Realignment, and the Senate in the 1980s.” Journal of Politics 53 (February): 3–33.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1955. “A Theory of Critical Elections.” Journal of Politics 17 (February): 3–18.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1959. “Secular Realignment and the Party System.” Journal of Politics 21 (May): 198–210.Google Scholar
Lubell, Samuel. 1952. The Future of American Politics. New York: Harper & Brothers.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. “Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 83 (December): 1125–42.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1992. “Question Wording and Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 86 (June): 475–86.Google Scholar
Maddala, G. S., and Kim, In-Moo. 1998. Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Markus, Gregory B. 1982. “Political Attitudes during an Election Year: A Report on the 1980 NES Panel Study.” American Political Science Review 76 (September): 538–60.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E. 1991. “Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to Basics.” American Political Science Review 85 (June): 557–68.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Merrill Shanks, J.. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Nie, Norman H., Verba, Sidney, and Petrocik, John R.. 1976. The Changing American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 1987. “Under Way and Here to Stay: Party Realignment in the 1980s?” Public Opinion Quarterly 51 (Autumn): 376–91.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Lafay, Jean-Dominique. 1991. Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Rusk, Jerrold. 1982. “Partisan Dealignment in the American Electorate: Itemizing the Deductions.” American Political Science Review 76 (September): 522–37.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1981. Party Coalitions: Realignments and the Decline of the New Deal Party System. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
Pomper, Gerald M. 1981. “The Presidential Election.” In The Election of 1980, ed. Pomper, Gerald M.. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House. Pp. 65–96.Google Scholar
Sellers, Charles. 1965. “The Equilibrium Cycle in Two-Party Politics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 29 (Spring): 16–38.Google Scholar
Stanley, Harold W., and Richard G., Niemi. 1995. “The Demise of the New Deal Coalition: Partisanship and Group Support, 1952–1992.” In Democracy's Feast: Elections in America, ed. Weisberg, Herbert F.. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House. Pp. 220–40.Google Scholar
Sundquist, James L. 1973. Dynamics of the Party System. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Weisberg, Herbert F., and Kimball, David C.. 1995. “Attitudinal Correlates of the 1992 Presidential Vote: Party Identification and Beyond.” In Democracy's Feast: Elections in America, ed. Weisberg, Herbert F.. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House. Pp. 72–111.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.