Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T05:15:57.710Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2013

MICHAEL R. TOMZ  and
JESSICA L. P. WEEKS
MICHAEL R. TOMZ*
Affiliation:
Stanford University
JESSICA L. P. WEEKS*
Affiliation:
University of Wisconsin–Madison
*
Michael R. Tomz is Professor of Political Science, Stanford University ([email protected]).
Jessica L. P. Weeks is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin–Madison ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

One of the most striking findings in political science is the democratic peace: the absence of war between democracies. Some authors attempt to explain this phenomenon by highlighting the role of public opinion. They observe that democratic leaders are beholden to voters and argue that voters oppose war because of its human and financial costs. This logic predicts that democracies should behave peacefully in general, but history shows that democracies avoid war primarily in their relations with other democracies. In this article we investigate not whether democratic publics are averse to war in general, but whether they are especially reluctant to fight other democracies. We embedded experiments in public opinion polls in the United States and the United Kingdom and found that individuals are substantially less supportive of military strikes against democracies than against otherwise identical autocracies. Moreover, our experiments suggest that shared democracy pacifies the public primarily by changing perceptions of threat and morality, not by raising expectations of costs or failure. These findings shed light on a debate of enduring importance to scholars and policy makers.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 107 , Issue 4 , November 2013 , pp. 849 - 865
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldrich, John H., Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Eugene. 1989. “Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting.” American Political Science Review 83 (1): 123–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A. 1960. The American People and Foreign Policy. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2004. “How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force: The Case of Operation Restore Hope.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 34 (2): 187–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Groeling, Tim. 2009. “Shot by the Messenger: Partisan Cues and Public Opinion Regarding National Security and War.” Political Behavior 31 (2): 157–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Philip B. K.. 2008. “The Relationships between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis.” Annual Review of Political Science 11: 39–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2007. “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict.” Journal of Politics 69 (4): 975–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2009. In Time of War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J., Huber, Gregory A., and Lenz, Gabriel S.. 2012. “Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon's Mechanical Turk.” Political Analysis 20: 351–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith, Alastair. 1999. “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 93 (4): 791–807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice. 2006. Who Leads Whom? Presidents, Policy, and the Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Dafoe, Allan. 2011. “Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 247–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, H. E.. 2010. “Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.” American Political Science Review 104 (3): 430–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dixon, William J. 1994. “Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88 (1): 14–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, Michael W. 1983. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs.” Philosophy & Public Affairs 12 (3): 205–35.Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael W. 1986. “Liberalism and World Politics.” American Political Science Review 80 (4): 1151–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edwards, George. 1997. “Aligning Tests with Theory: Presidential Approval as a Source of Influence in Congress.” Congress and the Presidency 24 (2): 113–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farber, Henry S., and Gowa, Joanne. 1995. “Polities and Peace.” International Security 20 (2): 123–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88 (3): 577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (3): 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finnemore, Martha. 2003. The Purpose of Intervention. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Foyle, Douglas C. 1999. Counting the Public In: Presidents, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2008. “The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach.” American Political Science Review 102 (1): 95–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1998. “Kant We All Just Get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (1): 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 2007. “The Capitalist Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (1): 166–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2006. “Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq.” International Security 30 (3): 7–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter, and Reifler, Jason A.. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason, and Feaver, Peter. 2007. “Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance.” Political Behavior 29 (2): 151–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geva, Nehemia, DeRouen, Karl R., and Mintz, Alex. 1993. “The Political Incentive Explanation of ‘Democratic Peace’: Evidence from Experimental Research.” International Interactions 18 (3): 215–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geva, Nehemia, and Hanson, D. Christopher. 1999. “Cultural Similarity, Foreign Policy Actions, and Regime Perception: An Experimental Study of International Cues and Democratic Peace.” Political Psychology 20 (4): 803–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghosn, Faten, Palmer, Glenn, and Bremer, Stuart A.. 2004. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2): 133–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2007. “Bordering on Peace: Democracy, Territorial Issues, and Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 51 (3): 509–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne S. 1999. Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Grieco, Joseph M., Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason, and Feaver, Peter D.. 2011. “Let's Get a Second Opinion: International Institutions and American Public Support for War.” International Studies Quarterly 55 (2): 563–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gronke, Paul, Koch, Jeffrey, and Wilson, J. Matthew. 2003. “Follow the Leader? Presidential Approval, Presidential Support, and Representatives’ Electoral Fortunes.” Journal of Politics 65 (3): 785–808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Hughes, Alex, and Victor, David G.. 2013. “The Cognitive Revolution and the Political Psychology of Elite Decision Making.” Perspectives on Politics 11 (2): 368–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartley, Thomas, and Russett, Bruce. 1992. “Public Opinion and the Common Defense: Who Governs Military Spending in the United States?” American Political Science Review 86 (4): 905–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, Ewan. 2004. “State Socialization, International Norm Dynamics and the Liberal Peace.” International Politics 41 (4): 521–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G., and Kegley, Charles W.. 1995. “Rethinking Democracy and International Peace: Perspectives from Political Psychology.” International Studies Quarterly 39 (4): 511–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., and Shannon, Vaughn P.. 2001. “Defending International Norms: The Role of Obligation, Material Interest, and Perception in Decision Making.” International Organization 55 (3): 621–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., Tetlock, Philip E., and Visser, Penny S.. 1999. “Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework.” American Political Science Review 93 (3): 553–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., Voss, James F., Schooler, Tonya Y. E., and Chiarrochi, Joseph. 1997. “Images in International Relations: An Experimental Test of Cognitive Schemata.” International Studies Quarterly 41 (3): 403–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herron, Kerry G., and Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.. 2002. “U.S. Perceptions of Nuclear Security in the Wake of the Cold War: Comparing Public and Elite Belief Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 46 (4): 451–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hildebrandt, Timothy, Hillebrecht, Courtney, Holm, Peter M., and Pevehouse, Jon. 2013. “The Domestic Politics of Humanitarian Intervention: Public Opinion, Partisanship, and Ideology.” Foreign Policy Analysis 9 (3): 243–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 2004. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. rev. ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Holyk, Gregory G. 2011. “Individual-level Predictors of Leader and Public Support for the Use of Force.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 23 (2): 214–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., and Levendusky, Matthew S.. 2011. “Drafting Support for War: Conscription and Mass Support for Warfare.” Journal of Politics 73 (2): 524–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, William G., and Pevehouse, Jon C.. 2007. While Dangers Gather: Congressional Checks on Presidential War Powers. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, Tingley, Dustin, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2011. “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review 105 (4): 765–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2010. “Identification, Inference, and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Mediation Effects.” Statistical Science 25 (1): 51–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1978. “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.” World Politics 30 (2):167–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johns, Robert, and Davies, Graeme. 2012. “Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Target States and Support for War in Britain and the United States.” Journal of Politics 74 (4): 1038–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Byron, and Kenward, Michael G.. 2003. Design and Analysis of Cross-over Trials. 2nd ed. New York: Chapman & Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahl, Colin H. 1998. “Constructing a Separate Peace: Constructivism, Collective Liberal Identity, and Democratic Peace.” Security Studies 8 (2–3): 94–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kant, Immanuel. [1795] 1991. Kant's Political Writings. Edited by Hans Reiss. 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Krosnick, Jon A., and Kinder, Donald R.. 1990. “Altering the Foundations of Support for the President through Priming.” American Political Science Review 84 (2): 497–512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydd, Andrew H. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacina, Bethany, and Lee, Charlotte. 2012. “Culture Clash or Democratic Peace?: Results of a Survey Experiment on the Effect of Religious Culture and Regime Type on Foreign Policy Opinion Formation.” Foreign Policy Analysis 9 (2): 143–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1992. “Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War.” American Political Science Review 86 (1): 24–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lektzian, David, and Souva, Mark. 2009. “A Comparative Theory Test of Democratic Peace Arguments, 1946–2000.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (1): 17–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S., and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. “When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs.” Journal of Politics 74 (2): 323–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1988. “Domestic Politics and War.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (4): 653–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindsay, James M. 1994. Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986.” American Political Science Review 87 (3): 624–38.Google Scholar
McDermott, Rose. 2011. “New Directions for Experimental Work in International Relations.” International Studies Quarterly 55 (2): 503–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Patrick J. 2009. The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2003. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Mintz, Alex, and Geva, Nehemia. 1993. “Why Don't Democracies Fight Each Other? An Experimental Study.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 (3): 484–503.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally Howard. 1991. “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (2): 187–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1948. Politics among Nations. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2003. “Both Guns and Butter, or Neither: Class Interests in the Political Economy of Rearmament.” American Political Science Review 97 (2): 203–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce M.. 1999. “Is the Liberal Peace Just an Artifact of Cold War Interests? Assessing Recent Critiques.” International Interactions 25 (3): 213–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, John M. 1994. “How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace.” International Security 19 (2): 87–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, John M. 1997. Liberal Peace, Liberal War: American Politics and International Security. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Press, Daryl G., Sagan, Scott D., and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2013. “Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-use of Nuclear Weapons.” American Political Science Review 107 (1): 188–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Price, Richard. 1998. “Reversing the Gun Sights: Transnational Civil Society Targets Land Mines.” International Organization 52 (3): 613–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dan, Reiter, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Risse-Kappen, Thomas. 1995. “Democratic Peace—Warlike Democracies?” European Journal of International Relations 1 (4): 491–517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosato, Sebastian. 2003. “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory.” American Political Science Review 97 (4): 585–602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenau, James N. 1961. Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Operational Formulation. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Rousseau, David L. 2005. Democracy and War: Institutions, Norms, and the Evolution of International Conflict. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rummel, R. J. 1979. War, Power, Peace. Vol. 4 of Understanding Conflict and War. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1990. Controlling the Sword: The Democratic Governance of National Security. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 2010. “Capitalism or Democracy? Not So Fast.” International Interactions 36 (2): 198–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce M., and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth. 1999. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform?” International Organization 53 (2): 233–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2005. “Military Coercion in Interstate Crises.” American Political Science Review 99 (4): 533–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2011. Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of Peace. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobel, Richard. 2001. The Impact of Public Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy since Vietnam: Constraining the Colossus. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thucydides. 1954. History of the Peloponnesian War. Transl. Warner, Rex. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Tingley, Dustin. 2011. “The Dark Side of the Future: An Experimental Test of Commitment Problems in Bargaining.” International Studies Quarterly 55 (2): 521–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tingley, Dustin, and Walter, Barbara F.. 2011. “The Effect of Repeated Play on Reputation Building: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 65 (2): 343–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61 (4): 821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, Robert F., and Vavreck, Lynn. 2011. “The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining: Presidential Rhetoric and the Role of Party.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (3): 526–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verba, Sidney, Schlozman, Kay Lehman, Brady, Henry, and Nie, Norman H.. 1993. “Citizen Activity: Who Participates? What Do They Say?” American Political Science Review 87 (2): 303–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Welch, David A. 1993. Justice and the Genesis of War. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wendt, Alexander. 1999. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wildavsky, Aaron. 1966. “The Two Presidencies.” Society 4 (2): 7–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, Michael C. 2001. “The Discipline of the Democratic Peace.” European Journal of International Relations 7 (4): 525–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittkopf, Eugene R. 1987. “Elites and Masses: Another Look at Attitudes toward America's World Role.” International Studies Quarterly 31 (2): 131–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittkopf, Eugene R., and Maggiotto, Michael A.. 1983. “Elites and Masses: A Comparative Analysis of Attitudes toward America's World Role.” Journal of Politics 45 (2): 303–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.