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Probabilistic Causality, Selection Bias, and the Logic of the Democratic Peace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2005

BRANISLAV L. SLANTCHEV ,
ANNA ALEXANDROVA  and
ERIK GARTZKE
BRANISLAV L. SLANTCHEV
Affiliation:
University of California—San Diego
ANNA ALEXANDROVA
Affiliation:
University of California—San Diego
ERIK GARTZKE
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Abstract

Rosato (2003) claims to have discredited democratic peace theories. However, the methodological approach adopted by the study cannot reliably generate the conclusions espoused by the author. Rosato seems to misunderstand the probabilistic nature of most arguments about democratic peace and ignores issues that an appropriate research design should account for. Further, the study's use of case studies and data sets without attention to selection-bias produces examples that actually support theories it seeks to undermine. These problems place in doubt the article's findings.

Type
FORUM
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 99 , Issue 3 , August 2005 , pp. 459 - 462
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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