Hostname: page-component-669899f699-rg895 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-25T04:33:07.218Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Preventing and Responding to Dissent: The Observational Challenges of Explaining Strategic Repression

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 March 2016

EMILY HENCKEN RITTER  and
COURTENAY R. CONRAD
EMILY HENCKEN RITTER*
Affiliation:
University of California, Merced
COURTENAY R. CONRAD*
Affiliation:
University of California, Merced
*
Emily Hencken Ritter is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Merced ([email protected]).
Courtenay R. Conrad is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Merced ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Although scholarly consensus suggests that dissent causes repression, the behaviors are endogenous: governments and dissidents act in expectation of each other’s behavior. Empirical studies have not accounted well for this endogeneity. We argue that preventive aspects of repression meaningfully affect the relationship between observed dissent and repression. When governments use preventive repression, the best response to dissent that does occur is unclear; observed dissent does not meaningfully predict responsive repression. By contrast, governments that do not engage in ex ante repression will be more likely to do it ex post. We follow U.S. voting scholarship and propose a new instrument to model the endogeneity: rainfall. We couple rainfall data in African provinces and U.S. states with data on dissent and repression and find that dissent fails to have a significant effect on responsive repression in states that engage in preventive repression.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 110 , Issue 1 , February 2016 , pp. 85 - 99
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

REFERENCES

Abouharb, M. Rodwan, and Cingranelli, David L.. 2009. “IMF Programs and Human Rights, 1981–2003.” Review of International Organizations 4 (1): 47–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arena, Philip, and Hardt, Brian. 2014. “Incentives to Rebel, Bargaining, and Civil War.” International Interactions 40 (1): 127–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arena, Philip, and Joyce, Kyle A.. 2015. “Challenges to Inference in the Study of Crisis Bargaining.” Political Science Research and Methods 3 (3): 569–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Sam R., Clay, K. Chad, and Murdie, Amanda. 2012. “Neighborhood Watch: Spatial Effects of Human Rights INGOs.” Journal of Politics 74 (2): 354–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph, and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Butler, Christopher K., Gluch, Tali, and Mitchell, Neil J.. 2007. “Security Forces and Sexual Violence: A Cross-National Analysis of a Principal-Agent Argument.” Journal of Peace Research 44 (6): 669–87.Google Scholar
Carey, Sabine C. 2006. “The Dynamic Relationship Between Protest and Repression.” Political Research Quarterly 59 (1): 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, Sabine C. 2010. “The Use of Repression as a Response to Domestic Dissent.” Political Studies 58: 167–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, William J., and Margo, Robert A.. 2007. “The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots in American Cities: Evidence from Property Values.” The Journal of Economic History 67 (4): 849–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conrad, Courtenay R., and Moore, Will H.. 2010. “What Stops the Torture?” American Journal of Political Science 54 (2): 459–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cragg, John G. 1971. “Some Statistical Models from Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods.” Econometrica 39 (5): 829–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Danneman, Nathan, and Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2014. “Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2): 254–79.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 1995. “Multi-Dimensional Threat Perception and State Repression: An Inquiry into Why States Apply Negative Sanctions.” American Journal of Political Science 39: 683–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 1996. “The Weight of the Past: Exploring Lagged Determinants of Political Repression.” Political Research Quarterly 49 (2): 377–403.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2000. Paths to State Repression: Human Rights Violations and Contentious Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2007a. “State Repression and Political Order.” Annual Review of Political Science 10: 1–23.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2007b. State Repression and the Domestic Democratic Peace. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2015. How Social Movements Die: Repression and Demobilization of the Republic of New Africa. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R. 2015. “Delegating Death: Military Intervention and Government Killing.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (3): 346–68.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2008. “Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression.” Political Analysis 16: 290–302.Google Scholar
Earl, Jenifer, Soule, Sarah A., and McCarthy, John D.. 2003. “Protest Under Fire? Explaining the Policing of Protest.” American Sociological Review 68 (4): 581–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enders, Walter. 2004. Applied Econometric Time Series. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (3): 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. and Laitin, David D.. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90.Google Scholar
Franklin, James C. 2009. “Contentious Challenges and Government Responses in Latin America.” Political Research Quarterly 62 (4): 700–14.Google Scholar
Galtung, Johan. 1969. “Violence, Peace, and Peace Research.” Journal of Peace Research 6 (3): 167–91.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, and Regan, Patrick. 1996. “Threat and Repression: The Non-Linear Relationship between Government and Opposition Violence.” Journal of Peace Research 33 (3): 273–87.Google Scholar
Ginkel, John, and Smith, Alastair. 1999. “So You Say You Want a Revolution: A Game Theoretic Explanation of Revolution in Repressive Regimes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (3): 291–316.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Robert J. 1978. Political Repression in Modern America from 1870 to the Present. Cambridge, MA: Schenkman Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., Hansford, Thomas G., and Krause, George A.. 2007. “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Journal of Politics 69 (3): 647–61.Google Scholar
Gupta, Dipak K., Singh, Harinder, and Sprague, Tom. 1993. “Government Coercion of Dissidents: Deterrence or Provocation?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37: 301–39.Google Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2005. “Trading Human Rights: How Preferential Trade Agreements Influence Government Repression.” International Organization 59: 593–629.Google Scholar
Hansford, Thomas G., and Gomez, Brad T.. 2010. “Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 104 (2): 268–88.Google Scholar
Henderson, Conway W. 1991. “Conditions Affecting the Use of Political Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 120–42.Google Scholar
Hendrix, Cullen S., and Salehyan, Idean. 2012. “Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa.” Journal of Peace Research 49 (1): 35–50.Google Scholar
Hendrix, Cullen S., and Salehyan, Idean. 2013. “Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD).” (Accessed January 9, 2013 at www.scaddata.org.)Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. 1973. Mass Political Violence. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Hill, Daniel W., and Jones, Zachary M.. 2014. “An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression.” American Political Science Review 108 (3): 661–87.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2011. “Why Do Authoritarian Regimes Sign the Convention Against Torture? Signaling, Domestic Politics, and Non-Compliance.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6 (3-4): 275–327.Google Scholar
Hughes, P. Y., Mason, E. H., Karl, T. R., and Brower, W. A.. 1992. United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data. ORNL/CDIAC-50, NDP-042. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Google Scholar
Imbens, Guido W., and Angrist, Joshua D.. 1994. “Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects.” Econometrica 62 (2): 467–75.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 1999. “Wanton and Senseless? The Logic of Massacres in Algeria.” Rationality and Society 11 (3): 243–85.Google Scholar
Keele, Luke, and Morgan, Jason. 2015. “Stronger Instruments By Design.” Manuscript available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256049563_Stronger_Instruments_by_Design.Google Scholar
Kim, HeeMin, Whitten-Woodring, Jenifer, and James, Patrick. 2015. “The Role of Media in the Repression-Protest Nexus: A Game-theoretic Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (6): 1017–42.Google Scholar
King, John C. 1998. “Repression, Domestic Threat, and Interactions in Argentina and Chile.” Journal of Political and Military Sociology 26 (2): 191–211.Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan E. 1995. “Attitudes, Opportunities and Incentives: A Field Essay on Political Participation.” Political Research Quarterly 48 (1): 181–209.Google Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1987. “Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31: 266–97.Google Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1998. The Rebel’s Dilemma. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lindquist, Stefanie A. 2007. “State Politics and the Judiciary Codebook.” Data Codebook. Data associated with National Science Foundation Grant SES #0550618, “Predictability and the Rule of Law: Overruling Decisions in State Supreme Courts.”Google Scholar
McPhail, Clark, and McCarthy, John D. 2005. “Protest Mobilization, Protest Repression, and their Interaction.” Repression and Mobilization, pp. 3–32.Google Scholar
Melander, Erik. 2005. “Gender Equality and Intrastate Armed Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 49 (4): 695–714.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Neil J. 2009. Agents of Atrocity: Leaders, Followers, and the Violation of Human Rights in Civil War. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Moore, Barrington. 1978. Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt. White Plains, NY: ME Sharpe.Google Scholar
Moore, Will H. 1995. “Action-Reaction or Rational Expectations? Reciprocity and the Domestic-International Conflict Nexus During the Rhodesia Problem.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 129–67.Google Scholar
Moore, Will H. 2000. “The Repression of Dissent: A Substitution Model of Government Coercion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (1): 107–27.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (4): 941–72.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward. 1985. “Income Inequality, Regime Repressiveness, and Political Violence.” American Sociological Review 50 (1): 47–61.Google Scholar
Neumayer, Eric. 2005. “Do International Treaties Improve Respect for Human Rights?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (6): 925–53.Google Scholar
Nordås, Ragnhild, and Davenport, Christian. 2013. “Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (4): 926–40.Google Scholar
Novella, Nicholas S., and Thiaw, Wassila M.. 2012. “Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2 for Famine Early Warning Systems.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52: 588–606.Google Scholar
Palfrey, Thomas R., and Rosenthal, Howard. 1985. “Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty.” American Political Science Review 79 (1): 62–78.Google Scholar
Pemstein, Daniel, Meserve, Stephen, and Melton, James. 2010. “Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type.” Political Analysis 18 (4): 426–49.Google Scholar
Pierskalla, Jan Henryk. 2010. “Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1): 117–45.Google Scholar
Poe, Steven C. 2004. Understanding Human Rights Violations: New Systematic Studies. Aldershott: Ashgate, pp. 16–42.Google Scholar
Poe, Steven C., and Tate, C. Neal. 1994. “Repression of Human Rights to Personal Integrity in the 1980s: A Global Analysis.” American Political Science Review 88 (4): 853–72.Google Scholar
Poe, Steven C., Tate, C. Neal, Keith, Linda Camp, and Lanier, Drew. 2000. Domestic Threats: The Abuse of Personal Integrity. In Paths to State Repression: Human Rights Violations and Contentious Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick, and Henderson, Errol. 2002. “Democracy, Threats and Political Repression in Developing Countries: Are Democracies Internally Less Violent?” Third World Quarterly 23 (1): 119–36.Google Scholar
Rejali, Darius. 2007. Torture and Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Riker, William H., and Ordeshook, Peter C.. 1968. “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” American Political Science Review 62 (1): 25–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2014. “Policy Disputes, Political Survival, and the Onset and Severity of State Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 143–68.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: MacMillan Publishing.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean. 2008. “From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet.” Journal of Peace Research 45 (3): 315–26.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, Hendrix, Cullen S., Hamner, Jesse, Case, Christina, Linebarger, Christopher, Stull, Emily, and Williams, Jennifer. 2012. “Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database.” International Interactions 38 (4): 503–11.Google Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2003. “An Estimator for Some Binary-Outcome Selection Models Without Exclusion Restrictions.” Political Analysis 11: 111–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schnakenberg, Keith E., and Fariss, Christopher J.. 2014. “Dynamic Patterns of Human Rights Practices.” Political Science Research and Methods 2 (1): 1–31.Google Scholar
Schneider, A., Friedl, M. A., and Potere, D.. 2009. “A New Map of Global Urban Extent from MODIS Data.” Environmental Research Letters 4 (044003).Google Scholar
Schneider, A., Friedl, M. A., and Potere, D.. 2010. “Monitoring Urban Areas Globally using MODIS 500m Data: New Methods and Datasets Based on Urban Ecoregions.” Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 1733–46.Google Scholar
Shachar, Ron, and Nalebuff, Barry. 1999. “Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation.” American Economic Review 89 (2): 525–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shellman, Stephen M. 2006. “Leaders’ Motivations and Actions: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 23: 73–90.Google Scholar
Siegel, David A. 2011. “When Does Repression Work? Collective Action in Social Networks.” Journal of Politics 73 (4): 993–1010.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2009. Mobilizing for Human Rights: International Law in Domestic Politics. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sovey, Allison J., and Green, Donald P.. 2011. “Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers’ Guide.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (1): 188–200.Google Scholar
Staiger, Douglas, and Stock, James H.. 1997. “Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments.” Econometrica 65 (3): 557–86.Google Scholar
Stohl, Michael, Carleton, David, Lopez, George A., and Samuels, Stephen. 1986. “State Violation of Human Rights: Issues and Problems of Measurement.” Human Rights Quarterly 8 (4): 592–606.Google Scholar
Sullivan, Christopher, Loyle, Cyanne E., and Davenport, Christian. 2012. “The Coercive Weight of the Past: Temporal Dependence in the Conflict-Repression Nexus.” International Interactions 38 (4): 426–42.Google Scholar
Sullivan, Christopher M. 2015. “Undermining Resistance: Mobilization, Repression, and the Enforcement of Political Order.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, pp. 1–28. DOI: 10.1177/0022002714567951 Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, and Balch-Lindsey, Dylan. 2004. “‘Draining the Sea’: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare.” International Organization 58: 375–407.Google Scholar
Williams, C. N., Vose, R. S., Easterling, D. R., and Menne, M. J.. 2004. United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Data. ORNL/CDIAC-118, NDP-070. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.