Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-04T23:36:14.507Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Power to Hurt: Costly Conflict with Completely Informed States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 March 2003

BRANISLAV L. SLANTCHEV
BRANISLAV L. SLANTCHEV
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0521 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Because war is costly and risky, states have incentives to negotiate and avoid conflict. The common rationalist explanation is that war results from private information and incentives to misrepresent it. By modeling warfare as a costly bargaining process, I show that inefficient fighting can occur in equilibrium under complete information and very general assumptions favoring peace. Specifically, I assume that peace can be supported in equilibrium and that fighting brings no benefits to either state, only costs. Although there exist agreements that Pareto-dominate the final settlement, states may prefer to fight. The result turns on the ability of states to impose costs on their opponents and bear costs in return. The existence of a range of acceptable settlements and the threat to revert to particularly disadvantageous ones make inefficient equilibria possible. A diminished ability to hurt the enemy, not simply military victory, is a major reason to stop fighting.This article is a shorter version of the first chapter of my dissertation. I thank Randall Stone, Curt Signorino, John Duggan, and Robert Westbrooke for valuable comments. Previous versions were presented to the Peace Science Society, October 2001, and the Midwest Political Science Association, April 2002.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 97 , Issue 1 , February 2003 , pp. 123 - 133
Copyright
© 2003 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Art Robert J. 1980 To What Ends Military Power. International Security 4 Spring 4 35Google Scholar
Asada Sadao 1998 The Shock of the Atomic Bomb and Japan's Decision to Surrender—A Reconsideration. Pacific Historical Review 477 512Google Scholar
Bernstein Barton J. 1999 The Alarming Japanese Buildup on Southern Kuyshu, Growing U.S. Fears, and Counterfactual Analysis: Would the Planned November 1945 Invasion of Southern Kuyshu Have Occurred? Pacific Historical Review 561 609Google Scholar
Brooks Lester 1968 Behind Japan's Surrender: The Secret Struggle that Ended an Empire New York McGraw–Hill
Busch Lutz-Alexander Quan Wen 1995 Perfect Equilibria in a Negotiation Model Econometrica 63 May 545-65Google Scholar
Butow Robert J. C. 1954 Japan's Decision to Surrender Stanford, CA Stanford University Press
Coase Ronald 1972 Durability and Monopoly Journal of Law and Economics 15 April 143-49Google Scholar
Dunnigan James F. William Martel 1987 How to Stop a War: The Lessons of Two Hundred Years of War and Peace New York Doubleday
Fearon James D. 1995 Rationalist Explanations for War International Organization 49 Summer 379 414Google Scholar
Fernandez Raquel Jacob Glazer 1991 Striking for a Bargain Between Two Completely Informed Agents American Economic Review 81 March 240-52Google Scholar
Filson Darren Suzanne Werner 2001 Bargaining and Fighting: The Impact of Regime Type on War Onset, Duration, and Outcomes Paper presented at the Political Economy of Conflict Conference, Yale University, March 23–24
Fudenberg Drew Eric Maskin 1986 The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information Econometrica 54 May 533-54Google Scholar
Fuller J. F. C. 1961 The Conduct of War, 1789–1961 New Brunswick, NJ Rutgers University Press
Giangreco D. M. 1997 Casualty Projections for the U.S. Invasions of Japan, 1945–1946: Planning and Policy Implications Journal of Military History 61 July 521-82Google Scholar
Goemans Hein E. 2000 War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press
Haller Hans H. Steinar Holden 1990 A Letter to the Editor on Wage Bargaining Journal of Economic Theory 52 232-36Google Scholar
Iklé Fred Charles 1971 Every War Must End New York Columbia University Press
Karnow Stanley 1983 Vietnam: A History New York Penguin Books
Kecskemeti Paul 1958 Strategic Surrender: The Politics of Victory and Defeat Stanford, CA Stanford University Press
Keegan John 1999 The First World War New York Knopf
Kegely Charles W. Jr Raymond Gregory A. 1999 How Nations Make Peace New York St. Martin's Press
Kennedy Paul 1983 Strategy and Diplomacy, 1870–1945 London George Allen & Unwin
Kim Dong-Won 2001 Bargaining, Conflict, and War Texas Tech University Mimeo
MacEachin Douglas J. 1998 The Final Months of the War with Japan: Signals Intelligence, U.S. Invasion Planning, and the A-Bomb Decision Washington, DC Central Intelligence Agency
May Ernest R. 2000 Strange Victory: Hitler's Conquest of France New York Hill & Wang
Miles Rufus E. Jr 1985 Hiroshima: The Strange Myth of Half a Million American Lives Saved International Security 10 Fall 121-40Google Scholar
Muthoo Abhinay 1999 Bargaining Theory with Applications Cambridge Cambridge University Press
Pape Robert A. 1996 Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War Ithaca, NY Cornell University Press
Pillar Paul R. 1983 Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press
Powell Robert 1997 Bargaining in the Shadow of Shifting Power. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, August 28–31
Powell Robert 2001 Bargaining While Fighting. University of California, Berkeley. Mimeo. October 7, 2001, version
Rosen Steven 1972 War Power and the Willingness to Suffer Peace, War, and Numbers Bruce M. Russett Beverly Hills Sage 167–83
Rubinstein Ariel 1982 Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model Econometrica 50 97 110Google Scholar
Schelling Thomas C. 1966 Arms and Influence New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Selten Reinhard 1975 Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games International Journal of Game Theory 4 1 25 55Google Scholar
Sigal Leon V. 1988 Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 Ithaca, NY Cornell University Press
Smith Alastair Stam Alan C. III 2001 Bargaining Through Conflict Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, San Antonio, TX, March 8–10
Smith James D. D. 1995 Stopping Wars: Defining the Obstacles to Cease-Fire Boulder, CO Westview Press
Stam Alan C. III 1999 Win, Lose, or Draw: Domestic Politics and the Crucible of War Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press
Strong Robert A. 1992 Decisions and Dilemmas: Case Studies in Presidential Foreign Policy Making Englewood Cliffs, NJ Prentice Hall
von Clausewitz Carl 1832 On War Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret 1984
Wagner R. Harrison. 2000 Bargaining and War American Journal of Political Science 44 July 469-84Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.