Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T00:24:42.241Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Political Reliability of Italian Governments: An Exponential Survival Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla
Claudio Cioffi-Revilla*
Affiliation:
The University of Illinoisat Urbana-Champaign
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Italian cabinets (governi) fall from power in a seemingly haphazard pattern, thus defying most deterministic analyses of their durability. This analysis views Italian government longevity as essentially indeterminate, or stochastic, and it applies the theory of “political reliability” to explain the probability that an Italian government will be in power at time t after it was formed. An exponential survival model R = e−kt, with constant government breakdown rate k = .021 per week, is developed, estimated, tested, and discussed. It is shown that Italian governments have a half-life (τ) of approximately 32.8 weeks, after which their political reliability drops below .50, and their mean duration is 47.7 weeks, so the probability that an Italian government will survive as long as the average is only 36.8%. Theoretical aspects of the model are also discussed, together with characteristic features of exponential political reliability, such as lifetime density, political mortality, and government downfall rate, as well as the systems reliability and crisis process characteristic of Italian governments.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 78 , Issue 2 , June 1984 , pp. 318 - 337
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1984

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bartholomew, D. J.Stochastic models for social processes. New York: Wiley, 1973.Google Scholar
Blondel, J.Party systems and patterns of government in Western democracies. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 1968, 1, 180–203.Google Scholar
Bronowski, J.The common sense of science. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1978.Google Scholar
Cotta, M.La classe parlamentare e la crisi del sistema politico italiano. Città e Regione, 1981, 6, 30–41.Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, C.Mathematical models in international relations. Chapel Hill, N.C.: Institute for Research in the Social Sciences, 1979.Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, C.Fuzzy sets and models of international relations. American Journal of Political Science, 1981, 25, 129–159.Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, C.A probability model of credibility: Analyzing strategic nuclear deterrence systems. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1983, 27, 73–108. (a)Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, C.Political reliability in international relations. In Zinnes, D. A. (Ed.), The dynamics of conflict processes in inter-state relations. Denver: University of Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1983. (b)Google Scholar
Corriere della Sera. [List of Italian governments]. 09 26, 1980, p. 1.Google Scholar
Crozier, M., Huntington, S. P., & Watanuki, J.The crisis of democracy. New York: New York University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
De Swaan, A.Coalition theories and cabinet formations. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1973.Google Scholar
Dodd, L. C.Coalitions in parliamentary government. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976.Google Scholar
Elandt-Johnson, R. C., & Johnson, N. L.Survival models and data analysis. New York: Wiley, 1980.Google Scholar
Feller, W.Introduction to probability theory and applications, Vol. 1 (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley, 1957.Google Scholar
Gehan, E. A., & Siddiqui, M. M.Simple regression methods for survival time studies. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1973, 68, 848–856.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Germino, D., & Passigli, S.The government and politics of contemporary Italy. New York: Harper & Row, 1968.Google Scholar
Gross, A. J., & Clark, V. A.Survival distributions. New York: Wiley, 1975.Google Scholar
Hughes, H. S.The United States and Italy. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1979.Google Scholar
Hurwitz, L.An index of democratic political stability. Comparative Political Studies, 1971, 4, 41–68.Google Scholar
Hurwitz, L.Democratic political stability. Comparative Political Studies, 1972, 4, 476–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P.Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1958, 53, 457–481.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, A., Grouchko, D., & Croun, R.Mathematical models for the study of the reliability of systems. New York: Academic Press, 1977.Google Scholar
Lave, C. A., & March, J. G.An introduction to models in the social sciences. New York: Harper & Row, 1975.Google Scholar
Laver, M.Dynamic factors in government coalition formations. European Journal of Political Research, 1974, 2, 259–270.Google Scholar
Maki, D. P., & Thompson, M.Mathematical models and applications. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1973.Google Scholar
Mammarella, G.L'Italia dopo il fascismo, 1943-1968. Bologna, Italy: Il Mulino, 1972.Google Scholar
Mann, N. R., Schaefer, R. E., & Singpurwalla, N. D.Methods for statistical analysis of reliability and life data. New York: Wiley, 1974.Google Scholar
Menon, M. V.Estimation of the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution. Technometrics, 1963, 5, 175–182.Google Scholar
Meyer, P.Introduction to probability and statistical applications (2nd Ed.). Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1970.Google Scholar
Midlarski, M.Stochastic modelling in political science. In Taillie, C., Patil, G. P., & Baldessari, B. (Eds.), Statistical distributions in scientific work, Vol. 4. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel, 1981.Google Scholar
Nelson, W.Theory and applications of hazard plotting for censored failure data. Technometrics, 1972, 14, 945–965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parzen, E.Modern probability theory and applications. New York: Wiley, 1960.Google Scholar
Pasquino, G.Crisi della DC ed evoluzione del sistema. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 1975, 5, 443–472.Google Scholar
Pasquino, G.Italian Christian Democracy: A party for all seasons? In Lange, P. & Tarrow, S. (Eds.), Italy in transition. London: F. Cass, 1980.Google Scholar
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. Italia: Documenti e notizie. Roma: Tipografia dello Stato, 1951–1980.Google Scholar
Pridham, G.The nature of the Italian political system. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Riker, W. H.The theory of political coalitions. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1962.Google Scholar
Rose, R.Challenge to governance. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1980.Google Scholar
Sanders, D., & Herman, V.The stability and survival of governments in Western democracies. Acta Politica, 1977, 12, 346–377.Google Scholar
Sartori, G.European political parties: The case of polarized pluralism. In La Palombara, J. & Wiener, M. (Eds.), Political parties and political development. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966.Google Scholar
Sutherland, J. W.A general systems philosophy for the social and behavioral sciences. New York: George Braziller, 1973.Google Scholar
Tarrow, S.Italy: Crisis, crises, or transition? In Lange, P. and Tarrow, S. (Eds.), Italy in Transition. London: F. Cass, 1980.Google Scholar
Taylor, M., & Herman, V. M.Party systems and government stability. American Political Science Review, 1971, 65, 28–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, M., & Laver, M.Government coalitions in Western Europe. European Journal of Political Research, 1973, 1, 205–248.Google Scholar
Thomas, G. B.Calculus and analytic geometry (4th Ed.). Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1968.Google Scholar
Warwick, P.The duration of coalition governments in parliamentary democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 1979, 11, 465–498.Google Scholar
Zinnes, D. A.Contemporary research in international relations. New York: Free Press, 1976.Google Scholar
Zuckerman, A. S.The politics of faction. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1979.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.