Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-01T11:42:29.924Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 November 2004

RANDALL W. STONE
RANDALL W. STONE
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Why has IMF lending achieved such poor results in Africa? Is it because the Fund imposes the wrong conditions, or because it fails to enforce them? Analysis of monthly data on 53 African countries from 1990 to 2000 shows that the IMF's loans-for-reform contract lacks credibility because donor countries intervene to prevent rigorous enforcement. Countries that have influence with developed-country patrons—as measured by U.S. foreign aid, membership in postcolonial international institutions, and voting profiles in the UN—are subject to less rigorous enforcement (shorter program suspensions). They have more frequent program suspensions, because they violate their conditions more often. The IMF will have to become more independent in order to become an effective champion of reform.

Type
ARTICLES
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , November 2004 , pp. 577 - 591
Copyright
© 2004 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abdelal Rawi. 2001. National Purpose in the World Economy: Post-Soviet States in Comparative Perspective. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
Alesina Alberto, Sule 0zler, Nouriel Roubini, and Phillip Swagel. 1996. “Political Instability and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 1 (June): 189– 211.Google Scholar
Alt James, Gary King, and Curtis S. Signorino. 2001. “Aggregation among Binary, Count and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data.” Political Analysis 9 (Winter): 21– 44.Google Scholar
Banks Arthur S. 1996. Political Handbook of the World. New York: CSA.
Barro Robert J. 1991. “Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (May): 407– 43.Google Scholar
Barro Robert J., and David B. Gordon. 1983. “Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics 12 (January): 101– 21.Google Scholar
Barro Robert J., and Lee Jong-Wha. 2002. “IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8951.
Bates Robert H. 1981. Markets and States in Tropical Africa: The Political Basis of Agricultural Policies. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Beck Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz, and Richard Tucker. 1998. “Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (October): 1260– 88.Google Scholar
Biersteker Thomas, ed. 1993. Dealing with Debt: International Financial Negotiations and Adjustment Bargaining. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Bird Graham, Mumtaz Hussain, and Joseph Joyce. 2004. “Many Happy Returns? Recidivism and the IMF.” Journal of International Money and Finance. 23 (March): 231– 51.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Burnside Craig, and David Dollar. 2000. “Aid, Policies and Growth.” American Economic Review 90 (September): 847– 68.Google Scholar
Conway Patrick. 2003. “Duration and Recidivism in IMF Programs: Evidence from the Period 1973–1992.” Working paper. University of North Carolina.
Cukierman Alex, Sebastian Edwards, and Guido Tabellini. 1992. “Seigniorage and Political Instability.” American Economic Review 82 (June): 537– 55.Google Scholar
Dollar David, and Lant Pritchett. 1998. Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why. New York: Oxford University Press.
Easterly William. 2001. The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Feng Yi. 1997. “Democracy, Political Stability and Economic Growth.” British Journal of Political Science 27 (July): 391– 418.Google Scholar
Gabel Matthew J., and John D. Huber. 2000. “Putting Parties in Their Place: Inferring Party Left-Right Ideological Positions from Manifestos Data.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (January): 94– 103.Google Scholar
Gartzke Erik, Dong-Joon Jo, and Richard Tucker. 1999. “The Similarity of UN Policy Positions, 1946–96.” Version 2.5. http://www.vanderbilt.edu/~rtucker/data/a_nity/un/simila.
Goldsmith Arthur A. 2001. “Foreign Aid and Statehood in Africa.” International Organization 55 (Winter): 123– 48.Google Scholar
Haggard Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Huntington Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Ivanova Anna, Wolfgang Mayer, Alex Mourmouras, and George Anayiotos. 2001. “What Determines the Success or Failure of Fund-Supported Programs?” Working paper. Washington, DC: IMF.
Killick Tony. 1995. IMF Programmes in Developing Countries: Design and Impact. London: Routledge.
Kirshner Jonathan. 1996. Currency and Coercion: The Political Economy of International Monetary Power. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Knack Stephen. 2001. “Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis.” Working paper. World Bank.
Leblang David, and William Bernhard. 2000. “The Politics of Speculative Attacks in Industrial Democracies.” International Organization 54 (Spring): 291– 324.Google Scholar
Londregan John B., and Keith T. Poole. 1990. “Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power.” World Politics 42 (January): 151– 83.Google Scholar
Mody Ashoka, and Diego Saravia. 2002. “Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?” Working paper WP/02. Washington, DC: IMF.
Nohlen Dieter, Michael Krennerich, and Bernhard Thibaut, eds. 1999. Elections in Africa: A Data Handbook. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Oatley Thomas, and Jason Yackee. 2000. “Political Determinants of IMF Balance of Payments Lending: The Curse of Carabosse?” Working paper. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Political Parties of the World. Vol. 5. 2001. Detroit, MI: Gale Research Co.
Powell G. Bingham, Jr. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Przeworski Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Quain Anthony. 2001. The Political Reference Almanac, 2001–2002. Arlington, VA: PoliSci Books.
Rogoff Kenneth. 1985. “The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (November): 1169– 90.Google Scholar
Schafer Joseph L. 1999. “Multiple Imputation: A Primer.” Statistical Methods in Medical Research 8 (January): 3– 15.Google Scholar
Signorino Curtis S., and Jeffrey M. Ritter. 1999. “Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions.” International Studies Quarterly 43 (March): 115– 44.Google Scholar
Smith Alastair, and James Vreeland. 2004. “The Survival of Political Leaders and IMF Programs.” Working paper. Yale and New York University.
Stasavage David. 1997. “The CFA Franc Zone and Fiscal Discipline.” Journal of African Economies 6 (March): 132– 67.Google Scholar
Stasavage David. 2001. “When Do States Abandon Monetary Discretion? Lessons From the Evolution of the CFA Franc Zone.” Working paper. London School of Economics.
Stiglitz Joseph E. 2002. Globalization and Its Discontents. New York: W. W. Norton.
Stone Randall W. 2002. Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Thacker Strom C. 1999. “The High Politics of IMF Lending.” World Politics 52 (October): 38– 75.Google Scholar
Vaubel Roland. 1986. “A Public Choice Approach to International Organization.” Public Choice 51: 39– 57.Google Scholar
Vreeland James Raymond. 2003. The IMF and Economic Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.