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Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 February 2025

ERICA DE BRUIN Open the ORCID record for ERICA DE BRUIN [Opens in a new window] ,
GABRIELLA LEVY Open the ORCID record for GABRIELLA LEVY [Opens in a new window] ,
LIVIA I. SCHUBIGER Open the ORCID record for LIVIA I. SCHUBIGER [Opens in a new window]  and
MICHAEL WEINTRAUB Open the ORCID record for MICHAEL WEINTRAUB [Opens in a new window]
ERICA DE BRUIN*
Affiliation:
Hamilton College, United States
GABRIELLA LEVY*
Affiliation:
University of Washington, United States
LIVIA I. SCHUBIGER*
Affiliation:
ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and University of Oxford, United Kingdom
MICHAEL WEINTRAUB*
Affiliation:
Universidad de los Andes, Colombia
*
Erica De Bruin, Associate Professor, Department of Government, Hamilton College, United States, [email protected].
Gabriella Levy, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Washington, United States, [email protected].
Livia I. Schubiger, Professor, Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations & Nuffield College, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, [email protected].
Corresponding author: Michael Weintraub, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Global Studies, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia, [email protected].
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Abstract

What determines the legitimacy of aspiring rulers? Questions about support of the governed are central to theories of state-building and political order. Millions worldwide live under the influence of competing armed groups, yet we know little about how people in these contexts make comparative assessments of would-be rulers. We theorize how local norms, social networks, and the provision of goods and services influence these comparative judgments. We report results from a conjoint survey experiment in Colombia among nearly 2,400 respondents across 54 municipalities contested by multiple armed groups. Armed groups that take community norms into account and those that involve local leaders in decision-making are judged less negatively. Additionally, providing services and limiting violence both reduce negative evaluations of armed groups. These findings help us understand dimensions of political legitimacy under limited statehood and the effects of governance on civilian attitudes in areas of competition.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , First View , pp. 1 - 14
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association

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