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Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members' Voting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2004

BRANDICE CANES-WRONE ,
DAVID W. BRADY  and
JOHN F. COGAN
BRANDICE CANES-WRONE
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, California Institute of Technology, Division of Humanities and Social Sciences 228-77, Pasadena, CA 91125 ([email protected]).
DAVID W. BRADY
Affiliation:
Professor of Political Science, Standford University and Fellow, The Hoover Institution, 241 Littlefield, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5015 ([email protected]).
JOHN F. COGAN
Affiliation:
Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution and Professor of Public Policy, Standford University, HHMB Room 347, Stanford, CA 94305-6010 ([email protected]).
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Abstract

Does a typical House member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll-call decisions? We investigate the relationship between incumbents' electoral performance and roll-call support for their party—controlling for district ideology, challenger quality, and campaign spending, among other factors—through a series of tests of the 1956–1996 elections. The tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting. First, in each election, an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party. Second, this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants. Third, a member's probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party, and this relationship holds for not only marginal, but also safe members.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 96 , Issue 1 , March 2002 , pp. 127 - 140
Copyright
© 2002 by the American Political Science Association

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