Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T22:25:23.279Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

International Crises and Domestic Politics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Alastair Smith
Alastair Smith*
Affiliation:
Yale University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Audience costs enable leaders to make credible commitments and to communicate their intentions to their adversaries during a crisis. I explain audience costs by simultaneously modeling crisis behavior and the domestic reelection process. I assume that a leader's ability influences the outcome of a crisis. As such, voters use outcomes as a signal of their leaders' quality. Leaders have incentives to make statements that deter their enemies abroad, since these statements also enhance their standing at home. Yet, such “cheap talk” foreign policy declarations are only credible when leaders suffer domestically if they fail to fulfill their commitments. In equilibrium, false promises are only made by the least competent types of leaders. Leaders that break their promises suffer electorally. Because initial domestic conditions and institutional arrangements affect the vulnerability of leaders to these domestic costs, such factors influence the credibility of policy declarations and, therefore, the crisis outcome.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 3 , September 1998 , pp. 623 - 638
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Achen, Christopher H. 1986. The Statistical Analysis of Quasi Experiments. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Eugene. 1989. “Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates ‘Waltz Before a Blind Audience?’“ American Political Science Review 83(March):123–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Londregan, John, and Rosenthal, Howard. 1993. “A Model of the Political Economy of the United States.” American Political Science Review 87(March):12–33.Google Scholar
Austen-Smith, David. 1987. “Interest Groups, Campaign Contributions and Probabilistic Voting.” Public Choice 54(2):123–39.Google Scholar
Banks, Jeffrey S. 1990. “Equilibrium Behavior in Crisis Bargaining Games.” American Journal of Political Science 34(August):599–614.Google Scholar
Banks, Jeffrey S. 1991. Signaling Games in Political Science. Chur, Switzerland: Harwood Academic.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Analysis of Regime Type and Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89(December):841–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Siverson, Randolph M., and Woller, Gary. 1992. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86(September):638–46.Google Scholar
Crawford, Vincent, and Sobel, Joel. 1982. “Strategic Information Transmission.” Econometrica 50(November):1431–51.Google Scholar
Downs, G. W., and Roche, D. M.. 1993. “Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War.” American Journal of Political Science 38(May):362–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James. 1993. “Selection Effects and Deterrence.” University of Chicago. Typescript.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1994a. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(September):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James. 1994b. “Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38(June):236–69.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1997. “Sunk Costs Versus Tying Hands.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(February):68–90.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, John. 1986. “Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control.” Public Choice 50(1–3):5–25.Google Scholar
Gaulbatz, Kurt Taylor. 1991. “Election Cycles and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):211–44.Google Scholar
Harsanyi, John. 1967–1968. “Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players,” Management Science 14(November): 159–82; 14(January):320–34; 14(March):486–502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hess, Gregory D., and Orphanides, Athanasios. 1995. “War Politics: An Economic, Rational Voter Framework.” American Economic Review 85(September):828–46.Google Scholar
Hinich, Melvin. 1978. “The Mean vs. the Median in Spatial Voting Games.” In Game Theory and Political Science, ed. Ordeshook, Peter. New York: New York University Press. Pp. 357–74.Google Scholar
Hirshleifer, Jack. 1989. “Conflict and Rent-seeking Success Functions: Ratio vs. Difference Models of Relative Success.” Public Choice 63(2):101–12.Google Scholar
Hurwitz, John, and Peffley, Mark. 1987. “The Means and Ends of Foreign Policy as Determinants of Presidential Support.” American Journal of Political Science 31(May):236–58.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. “Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War.” American Political Science Review 82(June):423–43.Google Scholar
James, Patrick, and Oneal, John R.. 1991. “The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 351(June):307–32.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1970. The Logic of Images in International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kreps, David, and Wilson, Robert. 1982. “Sequential Equilibria.” Econometrica 50(July):863–94.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1989. “The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique.” In Handbook of War Studies, ed. Midlarsky, Manus I.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pp. 259–88.Google Scholar
Martin, Lisa L. 1993. “Credibility, Costs, and Institutions: Cooperation on Economic Sanctions.” World Politics 45(April):406–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve.” American Journal of Political Science 33(November):941–72.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1991. “Electoral and Congressional Incentives and Arms Control.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):245–65.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1994. “Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38(June):270–97.Google Scholar
Mueller, John D. 1973. War, Presidents and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Nincic, Miroslav, and Hinckley, Barbara. 1991. “Foreign Policy and Evaluation of Presidential Candidates.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):333–55.Google Scholar
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Job, Brian L.. 1986. “The President and the Political Use of Force.” American Political Science Review 80(June):541–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, Torsten, and Tabellini, Guido. 1990. Macroeconomic Policy, Credibility and Politics. New York: Harwood Academic.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 1988. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games.” International Organizations 42(Summer): 427–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richards, Diana, Morgan, Clifton, Wilson, R. K., Schwebach, V. L., and Young, G. D.. 1993. “Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(September):504–35.Google Scholar
Rogoff, Kenneth, and Silbert, Anne. 1988. “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles.” Review of Economic Studies 55(January):1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce. 1990. “Economic Decline, Electoral Pressure and the Initiation of Interstate Conflict.” In Prisoners of War?, ed. Gochman, C. S. and Sabrosky, A. N.. New York: Lexington Books. Pp. 123–40.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Graham, Thomas W.. 1989. “Public Opinion and National Security Policy.” In The Handbook of War Studies, ed. Midlarsky, Manus I.. Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press. Pp. 239–58.Google Scholar
Sartori, Anne. 1996. “The Use of Effective Cheap-Talk Signals in International Disputes.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1995. “Alliance Formation and War.” International Studies Quarterly 39(December):405–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996a. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 40(March): 133–53.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996b. “Endogenous Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems.” Economics and Politics 8(July):85–110.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996c. “To Intervene or Not to Intervene.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(March):16–40.Google Scholar
Stoll, Richard J. 1984. “The Guns of November.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28(June):231–46.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.