Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T00:22:15.843Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

How Saudi Crackdowns Fail to Silence Online Dissent

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 December 2019

JENNIFER PAN*
Affiliation:
Stanford University
ALEXANDRA A. SIEGEL*
Affiliation:
Stanford University
*
*Jennifer Pan, Assistant Professor, Department of Communication, Stanford University, [email protected].
Alexandra A. Siegel, Postdoctoral Fellow, Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University, [email protected].

Abstract

Saudi Arabia has imprisoned and tortured activists, religious leaders, and journalists for voicing dissent online. This reflects a growing worldwide trend in the use of physical repression to censor online speech. In this paper, we systematically examine the consequences of imprisoning well-known Saudis for online dissent by analyzing over 300 million tweets as well as detailed Google search data from 2010 to 2017 using automated text analysis and crowd-sourced human evaluation of content. We find that repression deterred imprisoned Saudis from continuing to dissent online. However, it did not suppress dissent overall. Twitter followers of the imprisoned Saudis engaged in more online dissent, including criticizing the ruling family and calling for regime change. Repression drew public attention to arrested Saudis and their causes, and other prominent figures in Saudi Arabia were not deterred by the repression of their peers and continued to dissent online.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Our thanks to Charles Crabtree, Killian Clarke, Christian Davenport, Martin Dimitrov, Jennifer Earl, Will Hobbs, Holger Kern, Beatriz Magaloni, Elizabeth Nugent, Molly Roberts, Arturas Rozenas, Anton Sobolev, Rory Truex, Lauren Young, Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld, and participants at the 2018 APSA pre-conference on politics and computational social science for their helpful comments and suggestions; to SMaPP Global for making our collaboration possible; to the Stanford King Center on Global Poverty and Development and the National Science Foundation (Award #1647450) for research support. We would also like to thank Twitter for providing us with access to historical data as well as Steve Eglash for facilitating this access. Replication files are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9AMKHL.

References

REFERENCES

Al-Rasheed, Madawi. 2016. Muted Modernists: The Struggle over Divine Politics in Saudi Arabia. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Al-Rasheed, Nayaf. 2013. Twitter Out of Our Control (Arabic): Al-Watan. https://bit.ly/2wjYTBZ.Google Scholar
Alabaster, Olivia. 2018. “Saudi Arabia Using Anti-terror Laws to Detain and Torture Political Dissidents, UN Says.” The Independent. https://ind.pn/2Htch9O.Google Scholar
Ayres, Jeffrey M. 1999. “From the Streets to the Internet: The Cyber-Diffusion of Contention.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 566 (1): 132–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BBC News. 2014. “Saudi Terrorism Court ‘To Try Women Drivers’.” BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-30602155.Google Scholar
Bennett, W. Lance, and Segerberg, Alexandra. 2012. “The Logic of Connective Action: Digital media and the Personalization of Contentious Politics.” Information, Communication & Society 15 (5): 739–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bimber, Bruce, Flanagin, Andrew J., and Stohl, Cynthia. 2005. “Reconceptualizing Collective Action in the Contemporary media Environment.” Communication Theory 15 (4): 365–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calamur, Krishnadev. 2018. “Saudi Arabia Rejects Human-Rights Criticism, Then Crucifies Someone.” The Atlantic. https://bit.ly/2LbVyOx.Google Scholar
Cingranelli, David L., and Richards, David L.. 2010. “The Cingranelli and Richads (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project.” Human Rights Quarterly 32: 401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conti, Gregory, and Sobiesk, Edward. 2007. “An Honest Man Has Nothing to Fear: User Perceptions on Web-Based Information Disclosure.” In Proceedings of the 3rd Symposium on Usable Privacy and Security, ed. Lorrie Faith Cranor. Pittsburgh, PA: ACM, 112–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2005. “Repression and Mobilization: Insights from Political Science and Sociology.” In Repression and Mobilization, eds. Christian Davenport, Hank Johnston, and Carol Mueller. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, vii–xli.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2007. “State Repression and Political Order.” Annual Review of Political Science 10: 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2015. How social movements die. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian, Armstrong, Dave, and Zeitzoff, Thomas. 2019. “Acceptable or Out of Bounds? Scaling Perceptions of Challenger and Government Tactics as Well as Understanding Contentious Interaction.” In Workshop on Human Rights and Repression: Latin America in Comparative Perspective. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian, and Inman, Molly. 2012. “The State of State Repression Research since the 1990s.” Terrorism and Political Violence 24 (4): 619–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian, Soule, Sarah A., and Armstrong, David A.. 2011. “Protesting while Black? The Differential Policing of American Activism, 1960 to 1990.” American Sociological Review 76 (1): 152–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durkheim, Emile. 1984. The Division of Labor in Society. Glencoe, IL: Free Press. [Translated by W.D. Halls.].CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earl, Jennifer. 2011. “Protest Arrests and Future Protest Participation: The 2004 Republican National Convention Arrestees and the Effects of Repression.” In Special Issue Social Movements/Legal Possibilities, ed. Austin Sarat. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 141–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earl, Jennifer, and Schussman, Alan. 2002. “The New Site of Activism: On-Line Organizations, Movement Entrepreneurs, and the Changing Location of Social Movement Decision Making.” In Consensus Decision Making, Northern Ireland and Indigenous Movements, ed. Patrick G. Coy. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 155–87.Google Scholar
Earl, Jennifer, and Kimport, Katrina. 2008. “The Targets of Online Protest: State and Private Targets of Four Online Protest Tactics.” Information, Communication & Society 11 (4): 449–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earl, Jennifer, and Kimport, Katrina. 2011. Digitally Enabled Social Change: Activism in the Internet Age. Camrbidge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earl, Jennifer, Kimport, Katrina, Prieto, Greg, Rush, Carly, and Reynoso, Kimberly. 2010. “Changing the World One Webpage at a Time: Conceptualizing and Explaining Internet Activism.” Mobilization: International Quarterly 15 (4): 425–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earl, Jennifer, and Soule, Sarah A.. 2010. “The Impacts of Repression: The Effect of Police Presence and Action on Subsequent Protest Rates.” In Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, ed. Lisa Leitz. Bingely, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 75–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eckstein, Harry. 1965. “On the Etiology of Internal Wars.” History and Theory 4 (2): 133–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ESHR. 2017. “Death Penalty 2017 Annual Report.” https://bit.ly/2MApAbW.Google Scholar
Feierabend, Ivo K., Feierabend, Rosalind L., and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1972. Anger, Violence, and Politics: Theories and Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Fisher, Dana R. 1998. “Rumoring Theory and the Internet: a Framework for Analyzing the Grass Roots.” Social Science Computer Review 16 (2): 158–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francisco, Ronald A. 1996. “Coercion and Protest: An Empirical Test in Two Democratic States.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (4): 1179–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedom House. 2017. Freedom on the Net. Washington D.C.: Freedom House.Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2018. Saudi Arabia: Thousands Held Arbitrarily Dramatic Increase in Detention without Trial. Washington D.C.: Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2017/saudi-arabia.Google Scholar
Gibney, Mark, Cornett, Linda, Wood, Reed, Haschke, Peter, and Arnon, Daniel. 2016. “The Political Terror Scale 1976–2015. Political Terror Scale Website.” http://www.politicalterrorscale.org/.Google Scholar
Glum, Julia. 2015. “Saudi Arabia’s Youth Unemployment Problem Among King Salman’s Many New Challenges after Abdullah’s Death.” International Business Times.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Robert Justin. 1978. Political Repression in Modern America from 1870 to the Present. Boston, MA: GK Hall & Company.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A., and Tilly, Charles. 2001. “Threat (And Opportunity): Popular Action and State Response in the Dynamics of Contentious Action.” In Silence and Voice in the Study of Contentious Politics, eds. Ronald R. Aminzade, Jack A. Goldstone, Doug McAdam, Elizabeth J. Perry, William H. Sewell, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilley. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 179–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, and Duvall, Raymond. 1973. “Civil Conflict in the 1960s: A Reciprocal Theoretical System with Parameter Estimates.” Comparative Political Studies 6 (2): 135–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hassanpour, Navid. 2014. “Media Disruption and Revolutionary Unrest: Evidence from Mubarak’s Quasi-Experiment.” Political Communication 31 (1): 1–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobbs, William R., and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2018. “How Sudden Censorship Can Increase Access to Information.” American Political Science Review 112 (3): 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2018a. Human Rights Watch World Report 2017: Saudi Arabia: Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/saudi-arabia.Google Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2018b. Saudi Arabia: Thousands Held Arbitrarily Dramatic Increase in Detention without Trial: Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/05/06/saudi-arabia-thousands-held-arbitrarily.Google Scholar
Ibahrine, Mohammed. 2016. “The Dynamics of the Saudi Twitterverse.” In Political Islam and Global Media: The Boundaries of Religious Identity, eds. Noha Mellor and Khalil Rinnawi. Abingdon, UK: Routledge, Chapter 12.Google Scholar
Jansen, Sue Curry, and Martin, Brian. 2015. “The Streisand Effect and Censorship Backfire.” International Journal of Communication 9: 656–71.Google Scholar
Jenkins, J. Craig, and Perrow, Charles. 1977. “Insurgency of the Powerless: Farm Worker Movements (1946–1972).” American Sociological Review 42 (2): 249–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khawaja, Marwan. 1993. “Repression and Popular Collective Action: Evidence from the West Bank.” Sociological Forum 8 (1): 47–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2013. “How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression.” American Political Science Review 107 (2): 1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2014. “Reverse-engineering Censorship in China: Randomized Experimentation and Participant Observation.” Science 345 (6199): 1–10.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2017. “How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, Not Engaged Argument.” American Political Science Review 111 (3): 484–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1989. “Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution.” Public Choice 61 (1): 41–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1997. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Kurzman, Charles. 1996. “Structural Opportunity and Perceived Opportunity in Social-Movement Theory: the Iranian Revolution of 1979.” American Sociological Review 61 (1): 153–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacroix, Stéphane. 2011. “Comparing the Arab Revolts: Is Saudi Arabia Immune?Journal of Democracy 22 (4): 48–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacroix, Stephane. 2014. “Saudi Arabia’s Muslim Brotherhood Predicament.” https://wapo.st/2UZTQVR.Google Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1987. “Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (2): 266–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1998. The Rebel’s Dilemma: Ann Arbor, MI:University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Link, Perry. 2002. “The anaconda in the Chandelier: Chinese Censorship Today.” In The New York Review of Books 49 (6). April 11.Google Scholar
Mackey, Robert. 2014. “Saudi Activists Call for the Release of Women Detained for Driving.” https://nyti.ms/2IMzGbo.Google Scholar
Ménoret, Pascal. 2016. Repression and Protest in Saudi Arabia. Middle East Brief n 101, Waltham, MA.Google Scholar
Moore, Will H. 1998. “Repression and Dissent: Substitution, Context, and Timing.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 851–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Munger, Kevin, Bonneau, Richard, Nagler, Jonathan, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2018. “Elites Tweet to Get Feet off the Streets: Measuring Regime Social Media Strategies During Protest.” Political Science Research and Methods 7 (4): 1–20.Google Scholar
Myers, Daniel J. 1994. “Communication Technology and Social Movements: Contributions of Computer Networks to Activism.” Social Science Computer Review 12 (2): 250–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nabi, Zubair. 2014. “Censorship Is Futile.” First Monday. https://firstmonday.org/article/view/5525/4155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noman, Helmi, Faris, Robert, and Kelly, John. 2015. “Openness and Restraint: Structure, Discourse, and Contention in Saudi Twitter.” Berkman Center Research Publication No. 2015-16, 148.Google Scholar
Oberschall, Anthony. 1973. Social Conflict and Social Movements. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Olivier, Johan L. 1991. “State Repression and Collective Action in South Africa, 1970–84.” South African Journal of Sociology 22 (4): 109–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Opp, Karl-Dieter, and Gern, Christiane. 1993. “Dissident Groups, Personal Networks, and Spontaneous Cooperation: The East German Revolution of 1989.” American Sociological Review 58 (5): 659–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pan, Jennifer. 2017. “How Market Dynamics of Domestic and Foreign Social Media Firms Shape Strategies of Internet Censorship.” Problems of Post-Communism 64(3–4): 167–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasler, Karen. 1996. “Concessions, Repression, and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution.” American Sociological Review 61 (1): 132–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rauhala, Emily. 2018. “Saudi Arabia's Spat with Canada Was a Lesson. Trump Ignored it.” The Washington Post. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/10/17/saudi-arabias-spat-with-canada-was-lesson-trump-ignored-it/.Google Scholar
Roberts, Margaret E. 2018. Censored: Distraction and Diversion inside Chinas Great Firewall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth. 2014. “The Cost of Racial Animus on a Black Candidate: Evidence Using Google Search Data.” Journal of Public Economics 118: 26–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth. 2017. Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us about Who We Really Are. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Stern, Rachel E., and Hassid, Jonathan. 2012. “Amplifying Silence: Uncertainty and Control Parables in Contemporary China.” Comparative Political Studies 45 (10): 1230–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stukal, Denis, Sanovich, Sergey, Bonneau, Richard, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2017. “Detecting Bots on Russian Political Twitter.” Big Data 5 (4): 310–24.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sullivan, Christopher Michael, and Davenport, Christian. 2017. “The Rebel alliance Strikes Back: Understanding the Politics of Backlash Mobilization.” Mobilization 22 (1): 39–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Daily Star. 2011. “Saudi Group Raps Authorities over Recent Arrests.” The Daily Star. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/ArticlePrint.aspx?id=135177&mode=print.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1978. Collective Violence in European Perspective. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 2005. Repression, Mobilization, and Explanation. Vol. 218. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Tufekci, Zeynep, and Wilson, Christopher. 2012. “Social media and the Decision to Participate in Political Protest: Observations from Tahrir Square.” Journal of Communication 62 (2): 363–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Eugene Victor. 1969. Terror and Resistance: A Study of Political Violence, with Case Studies of Some Primitive African Communities. Vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Wehrey, Frederic. 2015. “Saudi Arabia’s Anxious Autocrats.” Journal of Democracy 26 (2): 71–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wehrey, Frederic M. 2013. The Forgotten Uprising in Eastern Saudi Arabia. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Woolley, Samuel C., and Howard, Philip N.. 2016. “Automation, Algorithms, and Politics—Political Communication, Computational Propaganda, and Autonomous Agents—Introduction.” International Journal of Communication 10: 9.Google Scholar
Young, Lauren E. 2017. “Mobilization under Threat: Emotional Appeals and Dissent in Autocracy.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Pan and Siegel Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Pan and Siegel supplementary material

Pan and Siegel supplementary material

Download Pan and Siegel supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 291.8 KB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.