Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T23:48:25.805Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 March 2011

ALAN S. GERBER ,
JAMES G. GIMPEL ,
DONALD P. GREEN  and
DARON R. SHAW
ALAN S. GERBER*
Affiliation:
Yale University
JAMES G. GIMPEL*
Affiliation:
University of Maryland
DONALD P. GREEN*
Affiliation:
Yale University
DARON R. SHAW*
Affiliation:
University of Texas at Austin
*
Alan S. Gerber is Professor, Department of Political Science and Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, P.O. Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520 ([email protected]).
James G. Gimpel is Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 ([email protected]).
Donald P. Green is Professor, Department of Political Science and Director, Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, P.O. Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520 ([email protected]).
Daron R. Shaw is Professor, Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin, University Station A1800, Austin, TX 78712 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We report the results of the first large-scale experiment involving paid political advertising. During the opening months of a 2006 gubernatorial campaign, approximately $2 million of television and radio advertising on behalf of the incumbent candidate was deployed experimentally. In each experimental media market, the launch date and volume of television advertising were randomly assigned. In order to gauge movement in public opinion, a tracking poll conducted brief telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 registered voters each day and a brief follow-up one month after the conclusion of the television campaign. Results indicate that televised ads have strong but short-lived effects on voting preferences. The ephemeral nature of these effects is more consistent with psychological models of priming than with models of on-line processing.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , February 2011 , pp. 135 - 150
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Achen, Christopher H. 1992. “Breaking the Iron Triangle: Social Psychology, Demographic Variables and Linear Regression in Voting Research.” Political Behavior 14: 195–211.Google Scholar
Almon, Shirley. 1965. “The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures.” Econometrica 33: 178–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amemiya, Takeshi. 1985. Advanced Econometrics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Amemiya, Takeshi, and Morimune, Kimio. 1974. “Selecting the Optimal Order of Polynomial in the Almon Distributed Lag.” Review of Economics and Statistics 56 (3): 378–86.Google Scholar
Angrist, Joshua D., Imbens, Guido W., and Rubin, Donald B.. 1996. “Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 91 (434): 444–55.Google Scholar
Ansolabehere, S., and Iyengar, S.. 1995. Going Negative: How Attack Ads Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen D., Iyengar, Shanto, and Simon, Adam. 1999. “Replicating Experiments Using Aggregate and Survey Data: The Case of Negative Advertising and Turnout.” American Political Science Review 93: 901–9.Google Scholar
Ashworth, Scott, and Clinton, Joshua D.. 2006. “Does Advertising Exposure Affect Turnout?” Quarterly Journal of Political 2: 27–41.Google Scholar
Ball-Rokeach, Sandra J., Rokeach, Milton, and Grube, Joel W.. 1984. The Great American Values Test: Influencing Behavior and Belief Through Television. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2002. “Sex, Lies, and War: How Soft News Brings Foreign Policy to the Inattentive Public.” American Political Science Review 96: 91–109.Google Scholar
Brader, Ted. 2005. “Striking a Responsive Chord: How Political Ads Motivate and Persuade Voters by Appealing to Emotions.” American Journal of Political Science 49: 388–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burke, Raymond R., and Srull, Thomas K.. 1988. “Competitive Interference and Consumer Memory for Advertising.” Journal of Consumer Research 15: 55–68.Google Scholar
Clinton, Joshua D., and Lapinski, John S.. 2004. “‘Targeted’ Advertising and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Study of the 2000 Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 66: 69–96.Google Scholar
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Kaplan, Ethan. 2007. “The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122: 1187–1234.Google Scholar
Franz, Michael M., Freedman, Paul B., Goldstein, Kenneth M., and Ridout, Travis N.. 2008. Campaign Advertising and American Democracy. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.Google Scholar
Freedman, Paul, Franz, Michael, and Goldstein, Kenneth. 2004. “Campaign Advertising and Democratic Citizenship.” American Journal of Political Science 48: 723–41.Google Scholar
Freedman, Paul, and Goldstein, Kenneth. 1999. “Measuring Media Exposure and the Effects of Negative Campaign Ads.” American Journal of Political Science 43: 1189–1208.Google Scholar
Gaines, Brian J., Kuklinski, James H., and Quirk, Paul J.. 2007. “The Logic of the Survey Experiment Reexamined.” Political Analysis 15: 1–20.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan. 2004. “Does Campaign Spending Work?” American Behavioral Scientist 47: 541–74.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Green, Donald P.. 1998. “Rational Learning and Partisan Attitudes.” American Journal of Political Science 42: 794–818.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
GilliamFranklin D., Jr. Franklin D., Jr. and Iyengar, Shanto. 2000. “Prime Suspects: The Influence of Local Television News on the Viewing Public.” American Journal of Political Science 44: 560–74.Google Scholar
Green, Donald P., and Vavreck, Lynn. 2008. “Analysis of Cluster-Randomized Experiments: A Comparison of Alternative Estimation Approaches.” Political Analysis 16 (2): 138–52.Google Scholar
Haugtvedt, Curtis P., Schumann, David W., Schneier, Wendy L., and Warren, Wendy L.. 1994. “Advertising Repetition and Variation Strategies: Implications for Understanding Attitude Strength.” Journal of Consumer Research. 21: 176–89.Google Scholar
Havlena, William J. and Graham, Jeffrey. 2004. “Decay Effects in Online Advertising: Quantifying the Impact of Time Since Last Exposure on Branding Effectiveness.” Journal of Advertising Research 44: 327–32.Google Scholar
Hill, Seth J., Lo, James, Vavreck, Lynn, and Zaller, John R.. 2010. “How Quickly We Forget: Campaign Advertising and Electoral Advantage” Working Paper, UCLA Department of Political Science.Google Scholar
Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Shields, Todd G.. 2008. The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hovland, C., Lumsdaine, A., and Sheffield, F.. 1949. Experiments in Mass Communication: Studies of Social Psychology in World War II. Ann Arbor, MI: Association for Consumer Research.Google Scholar
Huber, Gregory, and Arceneaux, Kevin. 2007. “Uncovering the Persuasive Effects of Presidential Advertising.” American Journal of Political Science 24: 957–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Peters, Mark, and Kinder, Donald R.. 1982. “Experimental Demonstration of the Not-So-Minimal Consequences of Television News Programs.” American Political Science Review 76: 848–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1978. “The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 72: 469–91.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Blais, Andre, Brady, Henry, and Crete, Jean. 1992. Letting the People Decide: Dynamics of a Canadian Election. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Hagen, Michael G., and Jamieson, Kathleen Hall. 2004. The 2000 Presidential Elections and the Foundations of Party Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Judge, George G., Hill, R. Carter, Griffiths, William E., Lutkepohl, Helmut, and Lee, Tsoung-Chao. 1988. Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Kaid, Lynda Lee. 1997. “Effects of the Television Spots on Images of Dole and Clinton.” American Behavioral Scientist 40 (8): 1085–94.Google Scholar
Klapper, J. T. 1960. The Effects of Mass Communications. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Krasno, Jonathan S., and Green, Donald P.. 2008. “Do Televised Presidential Ads Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” Journal of Politics 70: 245–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lazarsfeld, Paul F., Berelson, Bernard, and Gaudet, H.. 1944. The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Lodge, Milton, Steenbergen, Marco, and Brau, Shawn. 1995. “The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review 89: 309–26.Google Scholar
Miller, Joanne M., and Krosnick, Jon A.. 1996. “News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: A Program of Research on the Priming Hypothesis.” In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, eds. Mutz, Diana, Brody, Richard A., and Sniderman, Paul M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Panagopoulos, Costas, and Green, Donald P.. 2008. “Field Experiments Testing the Impact of Radio Advertisements on Electoral Competition.” American Journal of Political Science 52 (1): 156–68.Google Scholar
Shaw, Daron R. 1999. “The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988–96.” American Political Science Review 93: 345–61.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1963. “Spatial Models of Party Competition.” American Political Science Review 57: 368–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vakratsas, Demetrios, and Ambler, Tim. 1999. “How Advertising Works: What Do We Really Know?” Journal of Marketing 63: 26–43.Google Scholar
Valentino, Nicholas A., Hutchings, Vincent L., and Williams, Dmitri. 2004. “The Impact of Political Advertising on Knowledge, Internet Information Seeking, and Candidate Preference.” Journal of Communication 54: 337–54.Google Scholar
Vavreck, Lynn. 2007. “The Exaggerated Effects of Advertising on Turnout: The Dangers of Self-reports.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2: 325–43.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1996. “The Myth of Massive Media Impact Revived: New Support for a Discredited Idea.” In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, eds. Mutz, Diana, Brody, Richard A., and Sniderman, Paul M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 17–78.Google Scholar
Zielske, Hubert, and Henry, Walter. 1980. “Remembering and Forgetting Television Advertisements.” Journal of Advertising Research 20: 7–13.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Gerber supplementary material

Appendices

Download Gerber supplementary material(File)
File 85.5 KB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.