¹ For a discussion and elaboration of this point, see Smelser's, Neil “The Methodology of Comparative Analysis of Economic Activity” in Smelser, , Essays on Sociological Explanation (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1968), pp. 62–75 Google Scholar.

² Campbell, D. T. and Stanley, Julian C., Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research (Chicago: Rand McNally and Co., 1963)Google Scholar. Campbell, D. T. and Ross, H. Lawrence, “The Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding: Time Series Data in Quasi-Experimental Analysis,” Law and Society Review, 3, 1968, pp. 33–53 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Campbell, D. T., “Reforms as Experiments,” American Psychologist, 24, no. 4, 1969, pp. 409–429 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³ See the relevant discussion by Campbell, D. T., “Reforms as Experiments,” 1969 Google Scholar.

⁴ Smoker, Paul, “Preliminary Analysis of an International Integrative Subsystem,” International Associations, 11, 1965, pp. 638–646 Google Scholar.

⁵ Zetterberg, Hans L., On Theory and Verification in Sociology, 3rd ed. (Totowa, N.J.: Bedminster Press, 1966), pp. 64–65 Google Scholar.

⁶ Savage, Richard and Deutsch, Karl, “A Statistical Model of the Gross Analysis of Transaction Flows,” Econometrica, 28, no. 3, 1960, pp. 551–572 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁷ James Caporaso, “Theory and Method in the Study of International Integration,” International Organization (forthcoming).

⁸ Campbell, D. T., “From Description to Experimentation: Interpreting Trends as Quasi-Experiments,” in Problems in Measuring Change, ed. Harris, Chester (Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1963), pp. 212–245 Google Scholar.

⁹ Deutsch, Karl and Edinger, Lewis et al., France, Germany, and the Western Alliance (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1967)Google Scholar.

¹⁰ Lindberg, Leon, “The European Community as a Political System: Notes Toward the Construction of a Model,” Journal of Common Market Studies, 1967, pp. 344–387 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹ Lindberg, , “The European Community,” 1967 Google Scholar.

¹² Lindberg, , “The European Community,” 1967, p. 345 Google Scholar.

¹³ Nye, Joseph S., “Comparative Regional Integration: Concept and Measurement,” International Organization, 22, no. 4, 1968, pp. 855–880 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁴ Lindberg, , “The European Community,” 1967, p. 345 Google Scholar.

¹⁵ Adapted from Campbell and Stanley, op. cit.; and Campbell, , “Reforms as Experiments,” 1969 Google Scholar.

¹⁶ Campbell and Stanley, op. cit.; Campbell, D. T., “From Description to Experimentation,” 1963, pp. 212–245 Google Scholar.

¹⁷ Glass, Gene V., “Analysis of Data on the Connecticut Speeding Crackdown as Time-Series Quasi-Experinient,” Law and Society Review, 1968 Google Scholar.

¹⁸ Three criteria were developed for selecting among the “candidate” socially given events that highlight Common Market development. First, we asked whether the event could have general significance for system-wide performances (trade flows, political decision-making). Second, we wanted to get maximum spacing in time between any two quasi-experiments. We hypothesized that increasing the interval between experiments would increase the probability that each experiment could be interpreted in “relative isolation” from others—realizing of course that even “ideal” spacing would not permit inferences from “closed systems.” Third, we selected events with the potential for relatively short-term, “discontinuous” effects. This criterion meant that sudden, immediately applied quasi-experiments would be selected for study before smoother, generally anticipated events.

¹⁹ We began with a matrix of over 40 variables and between 35 and 47 quarterly time-points. This was first reduced by eliminating covariant nation-specific trade indicators (on the basis of a dimensional analysis). Caporaso, James A., “Functionalism and International Integration,” Diss., University of Pennsylvania, 1968 Google Scholar.

²⁰ The reduction accomplished by dimensional and theoretical analyses was considerable—leaving us with a matrix of 25 variables rather than the original 40. Of this remaining set we then asked “Does each variable have the statistical potential to respond at all to the occurrence of quasi-experiments of a discontinuous sort?” To answer this question we employed extensive variable-by-variable “sensitivity analysis” involving auto-correlational and trend removal techniques. This analysis was aimed at determining the relative inlra-variable predictability over time; the greater the intra-variable predictability in a variable the less likely that the variable would “respond significantly” to the occurrence of the selected quasiexperiments. Techniques employed were adopted from Smoker, Paul, “A Time Series Analysis of Sino-Indian Relations,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 13, no. 2, 1969, pp. 172–191 Google Scholar. The end result was a set of nine variables—each meeting our a priori theoretical and statistical tests.

²¹ Lindberg, Leon N. and Scheingold, Stuart A., Europe's Would-Be Polity (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1970)Google Scholar.

²² Etzioni, Amitai, “The Epigenesis of Political Communities at the International Level,” American Journal of Sociology, 68, 1963, pp. 407–421 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²³ All trade indicators were collected from Commodity Trade Statistics, United Nations Statistical Papers, Series D., New York; the data on decisions and regulations were collected from the Bulletin of the EEC, Commission of the Common Market, Luxembourg.

²⁴ Sidjanski, Dusan, L'Originalité des Communautés Européennes et la Répartition de Leurs Pouvoirs (Paris: Éditions A. Pedone, 1961), p. 25 Google Scholar.

²⁵ For an excellent discussion of the entire decisionmaking process, from the role of the Commission and Council of Ministers to the part played by the Committee of Permanent Representatives and pressure groups, see La Décision dans les Communautés Européennes. under the direction of Gerber, Pierre and Pepy, Daniel (Bruxelles, Belgique: Presses Universitaires de Bruxelles, 1969)Google Scholar.

²⁶ Lindberg, Leon N., The Political Dynasties of European Economic Integration (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1963), p. 35 Google Scholar.

²⁷ An early application has been provided by Campbell, , “The Connecticut Crackdown,” 1968 Google Scholar, along with Glass, , “Connecticut Speeding Crackdown,” 1968 Google Scholar. A later effort has been that by Pelowski, Alan L., “A Research Note on the Use of a Quasi-Experimental Design in the Study of International Organization and War,” 1969(a), mimeoGoogle Scholar.

²⁸ By which we mean our experimental decisionpoints: Formation, Agricultural Package, and Crisis.

²⁹ Calculations were performed on time-sharing computers with programs originally developed by Sween and Campbell. ( Sween, Joyce and Campbell, D. T., “A Study of the Effects of Proximally Autocorrelated Error on Tests of Significance for the Interrupted Time Series Quasi-Experimental Design,” mimeo, Northwestern University, 1965 Google Scholar; and Sween, Joyce and Campbell, D. T., “The Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment: Three Tests of Significance,” 1965, Northwestern University, mimeo, pp. 1–39.Google Scholar), and converted to time-sharing by the authors, ( Pelowski, Alan L., “PINTR: A Version of Timex for On-Line Use,” 1969(b)Google Scholar.

³⁰ After Mood, A. M., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1950)Google Scholar; Sween, and Campbell, , “Study of Effects of Proximally Autocorrelated Error,” 1965 Google Scholar.

³¹ Narroll, Raoul, “Two Solutions to Galton's Problem, in Readings in Cross Cultural Methodology, ed. Moore, F. W. (New Haven: HRAF Press, 1961), pp. 221–248 Google Scholar.

³² Sween, and Campbell, , “Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment,” 1965 Google Scholar.

³³ The Monte-Carlo simulation method employs pseudo-random variates to obtain estimates of solutions that (supposedly) cannot be obtained by analytical procedures (such as the areas of complex volumes).

³⁴ Arkin, H. and Colton, , Tables for Statisticians (New York: Barnes and Noble, 1963), p. 121 Google Scholar.

³⁵ Sween, and Campbell, , “Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment,” 1965, p. 13 Google Scholar.

³⁶ Sween, and Campbell, , “Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment,” 1965, p. 26 Google Scholar.

³⁷ Lamfalussy, Alexander, “Europe's Progress: Due to Common Market?” in Krause, (ed.), The Common Market: Progress and Controversy ed. Krause, L. B., (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1964), pp. 90–108 Google Scholar.

³⁸ See Krause, Lawrence B., European Economic Integration and the United States (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1968)Google Scholar, for a more extensive treatment of the agricultural policy, as well as Lindberg, and Scheingold, , Europe's Would-Be Polity, 1970 Google Scholar.

³⁹ Krause, , European Economic Integration, 1968 Google Scholar.

⁴⁰ We should note that the Regulations adopted in January 1962 did not bring into existence a common agricultural policy immediately but rather provided the framework for the gradual establishment of agricultural policies from 1962 to 1970, the end of the transition period. In addition, no common price policy existed as yet and governments could intervene in a variety of ways to distort competition and affect trade. (See Lindberg, and Scheingold, , Europe's Would-Be Polity, 1970 Google Scholar, for a discussion of the fragmentary nature of these Regulations.)

⁴¹ Compare these results with the data and interpretation provided by Fisher, William E., “An Analysis of the Deutsch Sociocausal Paradigm of Political Integration,” International Organization, 23, 2 (Spring, 1969), especially pp. 271–273 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Fisher's data are not strictly comparable for a variety of reasons, among which are that he includes in his measure of output performance Community acts not examined here (e.g., recommendations and directives) and that he weights his indicators.

⁴² DeCarmoy, Guy, The Foreign Policies of France (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970), p. 372 Google Scholar.

⁴³ DeCarmoy, , Foreign Policies of France, 1970, p. 373 Google Scholar.

⁴⁴ Newhouse, John, Collision in Brussels: The Common Market Crisis of 30 June 1965 (London: Faber and Faber, 1967)Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ Krause, , European Economic Integration, 1968, p. 58 Google Scholar.

⁴⁶ Le Marché Commun et L'Agriculture, Livre Blanc des Organizations Professionelles Agricoles (Oct., 1965), pp. 21–25 Google Scholar.

⁴⁷ For a detailed analysis of the crisis see Lambert, John, “The Constitutional Crisis: 1965–66,” Journal of Common Market Studies, 4, no. 3 1966, pp. 195–228 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁸ Weil, Gordon, “The European Community: What Lies Beyond the Point of No Return?” The Review of Politics, 29, no. 2, 1967, p. 166 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁹ Camps, Miriam, European Unification in the Sixties (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1966), p. 16 Google Scholar.

⁵⁰ In general, this may be referred to as the “Functionalist School” of international integration theory of which David Mitrany is sometimes considered the founding intellectual father.

⁵¹ Lindberg, , “The European Community,” 1967 Google Scholar; Feld, Werner, The European Common Market and the World, (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1967)Google Scholar; Etzioni, , “Epigenesis of Political Communities,” 1963 Google Scholar.

⁵² A cross-lag panel correlation analysis of up to 8 quarterly lags produced uniformally high cross-variable predictability with little if any attenuation for higher lags.

⁵³ Spinelli, Altiero, The Eurocrats (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1966)Google Scholar.

⁵⁴ Popper, Karl, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge (New York: Harper Torchbooks, 1963)Google Scholar.