Hostname: page-component-f554764f5-rj9fg Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-10T01:41:24.090Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Abuse of Probability in Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

George Tsebelis
George Tsebelis
Affiliation:
University of California, Los Angeles
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The decision to stay at home when you have no umbrella and rain is probable is an appropriate problem for decision theory. The decision to speed when you are in a hurry and the police might be patrolling is a game against a rational opponent. Treating the latter like a problem for decision theory is what I call the Robinson Crusoe fallacy. It is quite common and leads to incorrect conclusions. If the game has no pure strategy equilibrium, changes in the payoffs to a player affect not that player's strategy but the strategy of the opponent in equilibrium. For example, modifying the size of the penalty does not affect the frequency of crime commitment at equilibrium, but rather the frequency of law enforcement. I provide examples of this fallacy in regulation, international economic sanctions, and organization theory and argue that it stems from inappropriate use of the concept of probability.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 83 , Issue 1 , March 1989 , pp. 77 - 91
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1989

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Aberbach, Joel D. 1987. “The Congressional Committee Intelligence System: Information, Oversight, and Change.” Congress and the Presidency 14:51–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary S. 1968. “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76:169–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bunge, Mario. 1979. Causality and Modern Science. 3d ed. New York: Dover.Google Scholar
Damme, Eric C. van. 1983. Refinements of the Nash Equilibrium Concept. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eells, Ellery. 1982. Rational Decision and Causality. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac. 1973. “Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Political Economy 81:521–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac, and Brower, George D.. 1987. “On the Issue of Causality in the Economic Model of Crime and Law Enforcement: Some Theoretical Considerations and Experimental Evidence.” American Economic Review 77:99–106.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1983. Explaining Technical Change. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1985. Making Sense of Marx. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Harsanyi, John C. 1973. “Games with Randomly Disturbed Payoffs: A New Rationale for Mixed-Strategy Equilibrium Points.” International Journal of Game Theory 2:1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. 1965. Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Hufbauer, Gary C., and Schott, Jeffrey J.. 1985. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Washington: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Kohlberg, Elon, and Mertens, Jean-Francois. 1986. “On the Strategic Stability of Equilibria.” Econometrica 54:1003–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreps, David M., and Wilson, Robert. 1982. “Sequential Equilibria.” Econometrica 50:863–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luce, Robert Duncan, and Raiffa, Howard. 1957. Games and Decisions. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
McCubbins, Mathew D., and Schwartz, Thomas. 1984. “Congressional Oversight Overlooked: Police Patrols and Fire Alarms.” American Journal of Political Science 28:165–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moulin, Herve. 1981. Game Theory for the Social Sciences. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Myerson, Roger B. 1978. “Refinements of the Nash Equilibrium Concept.” International Journal of Game Theory 7:73–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nash, John F. Jr., 1951. “Noncooperative Games.” Annals of Mathematics 54:289–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nagin, Daniel. 1978. “General Deterrence: A Review of the Empirical Evidence.” Deterrence and Incapacitation, ed. Blumstein, Alfred, Cohen, Jacqueline, and Nagin, Daniel. Washington: National Academy of Sciences.Google Scholar
Olson, Richard S. 1979. “Economic Coercion in World Politics.” World Politics 31:471–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ordeshook, Peter C. 1986. Game Theory and Political Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Popper, Karl R. 1965. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Savage, Leonard. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Dover.Google Scholar
Selten, Reinhard. 1975. “Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games.” International Journal of Game Theory 4:25–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, George J. 1970. “The Optimum Enforcement of Laws.” Journal of Political Economy 78: 526–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stinchcombe, Arthur. 1968. Constructing Social Theories. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World.Google Scholar
Tittle, Charles R. 1983. “Social Class and Criminal Behavior: A Critique of the Theoretical Foundation.” Social Forces 62:334–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trockel, Walter. 1986. “The Chain-Store Paradox Revisited.” Theory and Decision 21:163–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1987a. “Penalty Has No Impact on Crime: A Game-theoretic Analysis.” International Political Economy Working Paper no. 23. Duke University.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1987b. “The Impact of Fines on Regulated Industries: Game Theory vs. Decision Theory.” International Political Economy Working Paper no. 25. Duke University.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1987c. “Are Sanctions Effective? A Game-theoretic Analysis.” International Political Economy Working Paper no. 24. Duke University.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.