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Why So Little Strategic Voting in India?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 April 2022

OLIVER HEATH Open the ORCID record for OLIVER HEATH [Opens in a new window]  and
ADAM ZIEGFELD Open the ORCID record for ADAM ZIEGFELD [Opens in a new window]
OLIVER HEATH*
Affiliation:
Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom
ADAM ZIEGFELD*
Affiliation:
Temple University, United States
*
Oliver Heath, Professor, Department of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy, Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom, [email protected].
Adam Ziegfeld, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Temple University, United States, [email protected].
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Abstract

Strategic voting is thought to underlie Duverger’s Law and lead to two-party outcomes in single-member district plurality (SMDP) systems. We examine the extent of strategic voting in the world’s most populous democracy, India, where frequent exceptions to Duverger’s Law have long puzzled political scientists. Using an original voter survey from the 2017 Uttar Pradesh state election, we find extremely low rates of strategic voting. Why? We show that the vast majority of respondents believe that their preferred party is likely to win in their constituency. For most voters, their partisan preferences overwhelmingly predict their beliefs about which party will win. Their election forecasts correspond to objective electoral outcomes only with respect to parties that they like less.

Type
Letter
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 116 , Issue 4 , November 2022 , pp. 1523 - 1529
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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