Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T00:19:07.242Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

War Making and State Making: Governmental Expenditures, Tax Revenues, and Global Wars

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1985

Karen A. Rasler
Affiliation:
Arizona State University
William R. Thompson
Affiliation:
Claremont Graduate School

Abstract

Addressing the disputed relationship between war and the expansion of governmental expenditures and revenues, Box-Tiao intervention models are applied to a number of British (1700-1980), United States (1792-1980), French (1815-1979), and Japanese (1878-1980) spending and taxation series. Distinguishing between global and interstate wars, the more intensive and extensive bouts of warfare (global wars) tend to bring about abrupt, permanent impacts in contrast to the temporary changes associated with most interstate wars. The observed displacements are reflected in both war-related and nonwar-related types of expenditure and are also observed before 1900. Although our findings are not universally applicable and are subject to various other qualifications, they may be interpreted, in general, as reinforcing the need for an appreciation of the persistent centrality of war, especially global war, in the discontinuous growth and expansion of the modern state.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1985

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ames, E., & Rapp, R. T. The birth and death of taxes: A hypothesis. Journal of Economic History, 1977, 37, 161178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, P. Lineages of the absolutist state. London: New Left Books, 1974.Google Scholar
Andre, C., & Delorme, R. The long-run growth of public expenditure in France. Public Finance, 1978, 33, 4267.Google Scholar
Ardant, G. Financial policy and economic infrastructure of modern states and nations. In Tilly, C. (Ed.). The formation of national states in Western Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Barbera, H. Rich nations and poor in peace and war. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1973.Google Scholar
Bean, R. War and the birth of the nation state. Journal of Economic History, 1973, 33, 203221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, J. T., & Johnson, M. H. The political economy of federal government growth: 1959–1978. College Station, Texas: Center for Education and Research in Free Enterprise, Texas A&M University, 1980.Google Scholar
Berry, T. S. Revised annual estimates of American gross national product. Richmond, Va.: Bostwick Press, 1978.Google Scholar
Bird, R. M. Wagner's “law” of expanding state activity. Public Finance, 1911, 26, 126.Google Scholar
Blondal, G. The growth of public expenditure in Iceland. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 1969, 17, 122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonin, J. M., Finch, B. W., & Waters, J. B. Alternative tests of the “displacement effect” hypothesis. Public Finance, 1967, 24, 440456.Google Scholar
Borcherding, T. E. One hundred years of public spending, 1870–1970. In Borcherding, T. E. (Ed.). Budgets and bureaucrats: The sources of government growth. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1977.(a)Google Scholar
Borcherding, T. E. The sources of growth of public expenditures in the United States, 1902–1970. In Borcherding, T. E. (Ed.). Budgets and bureaucrats: The sources of government growth. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1977. (b)Google Scholar
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. Time series analysis: Forecasting and control (Rev. ed.). San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1976.Google Scholar
Box, G. E. P., & Tiao, G. C. Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1975, 70, 7092.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braun, R. Taxation, socio-political structure, and statebuilding: Great Britain and Brandenburg-Prussia. In Tilly, C. (Ed.). The formation of national states in Western Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Burk, K. (Ed.). War and the state: The transformation of British government, 1914–1919. London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982.Google Scholar
Cameron, D. R. The expansion of the public economy: A comparative analysis. American Political Science Review, 1978, 72, 12431261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Central Statistical Office. Annual abstract of statistics. London: HMSO, various years.Google Scholar
Cole, W. A. Factors in demand, 1700–80. In Floud, R. & McCloskey, D. (Eds.). The economic history of Britain since 1700, vol. 1:1700–1860. London: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Deane, P. The implications of early national income estimates for the measurement of long-term economic growth in the United Kingdom. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1955, 4, 338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deane, P. New estimates of GNP for the United Kingdom, 1830–1914. Review of Income and Wealth, 1968, 14, 95112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deane, P., & Cole, W. A. British economic growth, 1688–1959. London: Cambridge University Press, 1962.Google Scholar
Dupuy, R. E., & Dupuy, T. N. The encyclopedia of military history (Rev. ed.). New York: Harper & Row, 1977.Google Scholar
Eichenberg, R. C. Problems in using public employment data. In Taylor, C. L. (Eds.). Why governments grow. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1983.Google Scholar
Emi, K. Expenditure. In Ohkawa, K. and Shinohara, M. with Meissner, L. (Eds.). Patterns of Japanese economic development: A quantitative appraisal. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1979.Google Scholar
Emi, K. Government fiscal activity and economic growth in Japan, 1868–1960. Tokyo: Kinokuniya, 1963.Google Scholar
Feinstein, C. H. National income expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. London: Cambridge University Press, 1972.Google Scholar
Gilpin, R. War and change in world politics. London: Cambridge University Press, 1981.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goetz, C. J. Fiscal illusion in state and local finance. In Borcherding, T. E. (Ed.). Budgets and bureaucrats: The sources of government growth. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1977.Google Scholar
Goffman, I. J., & Mahar, D. J. The growth of public expenditures in selected developing nations: Six Caribbean countries, 1940–65. Public Finance, 1971, 26, 5774.Google Scholar
Gould, G. The growth of public expenditures: Theory and evidence from six advanced democracies. In Taylor, C. L. (Ed.). Why governments grow. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1983.Google Scholar
Gourevitch, P. The second image reversed: The international sources of domestic politics. International Organization, 1978, 52, 881911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gupta, S. P. Public expenditure and economic growth: A time series analysis. Public Finance, 1967, 22, 423461.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. Jr. Problems of statistical estimation and causal inference in time series regression models. In Costner, H. L. (Ed.). Sociological methodology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1974.Google Scholar
Hintze, O. Military organization and the organization of the state. In Gilbert, F. (Ed.). The historical essays of Otto Hintze. New York: Oxford University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Japan statistical yearbook. Tokyo Executive Office of the Statistics Commission and Statistics Bureau of the Prime Minister's Office, various years.Google Scholar
Jeze, G. Les depenses de guerre de la France. Paris: Les Presses Universitaires de France, 1927.Google Scholar
Kaufman, J. P. The social consequences of war: The social development of four nations. Armed Forces and Society, 1983, 9, 245264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
deKaufmann, R. Les finances de la France. Paris: Guillaumin et Cie, 1894.Google Scholar
Kohl, J. The functional structure of public expenditures: Long-term changes. In Taylor, C. L. (Ed.). Why governments grow. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1983.Google Scholar
Leff, N. H. Underdevelopment and development in Brazil (vol. 2). London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982.Google Scholar
Mahar, D. J., & Rezende, F. A. The growth and pattern of public expenditure in Brazil, 1920–1969. Public Finances Quarterly, 1975, 3, 380399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mallez, P. La restauration des finances Francoises apres 1814. Paris: Librarie Delloz, 1927.Google Scholar
Marczewski, J. Some aspects of the economic growth of France, 1660–1958. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1961, 9, 369386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marion, M. Histoire financiere de la France depuis 1715 (6 vols.). Paris: Arthur Rousseau, 1914.Google Scholar
Marwick, A. War and social change in the twentieth century: A comparative study of Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1974.Google Scholar
McCleary, R., & Hay, R. A. Jr. Applied time series analysis for the social sciences. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1980.Google Scholar
McNeill, W. H. The pursuit of power. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. Why government grows (and grows) in a democracy. Public Interest, 1978, 52, 111118.Google Scholar
Ministere de l'Economie. Annuaire statistique de la France. Paris: Republique Francaise, various years.Google Scholar
Ministere de Finances. Inventaire de la situation financiere (1913–1946). Paris: Imprimerie Nationale, 1946.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R. Abstract of British historical statistics. London: Cambridge University Press, 1962.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R. European historical statistics, 1750–1970. New York: Columbia University Press, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, B. R. European historical statistics, 1750–1975 (2nd rev. ed.). New York: Facts on File, 1981.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R. International historical statistics, Africa and Asia. New York: New York University Press, 1982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, B. R., & Jones, H. G. Second abstract of British historical statistics. London: Cambridge University Press, 1971.Google Scholar
Modelski, G. The long cycle of global politics and the nation state. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 1978, 20, 214235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Modelski, G. Long cycles, Kondratieffs, and alternating innovations: Implications for U.S. foreign policy. In Kegley, C. W. Jr., & McGowan, P. J. (Eds.). The political economy of foreign policy. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1981.Google Scholar
Modelski, G. Long cycles and the strategy of U.S. international economic policy. In Avery, W. P. & Rapkin, D. P. (Eds.). America in a changing world political economy. New York: Longman, 1982.Google Scholar
Modelski, G. Principles of world politics. New York: Free Press, 1972.Google Scholar
Musgrave, R. A. Fiscal systems. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1969.Google Scholar
Nagarajan, P. Econometric testing of the “displacement effect” associated with a “non-global” social disturbance in India. Public Finance, 1979, 34, 100113.Google Scholar
North, D. C., & Thomas, R. P. The rise of the western world. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1973.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD. Main economic indicators: Historical statistics, 1960–1979. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1980.Google Scholar
OECD. National accounts of OECD countries: Detailed tables, 1963–1980. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1981.Google Scholar
Ohkawa, K., & Rosovsky, H. Japanese economic growth. Palo Alto, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1973.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., & Kugler, J. The war ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peacock, A. T., & Wiseman, J. The growth of public expenditures in the United Kingdom. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1961.Google Scholar
Peacock, A. T., & Wiseman, J. Approaches to the analysis of government expenditure growth. Public Finance Quarterly, 1979, 7, 323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Porter, B. D. Parkinson's law revised: War and the growth of American government. Public Interest, 1980, 60, 5068.Google Scholar
Pryor, F. L. Public expenditures in communist and capitalist nations. Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, 1968.Google Scholar
Rasler, K., & Thompson, W. R. Global wars, public debt, and the long cycle. World Politics, 1983, 55, 489516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasler, K., & Thompson, W. R. War and the economic growth of major powers. American Journal of Political Science, in press.Google Scholar
Reddy, K. N. Growth of government expenditure and national income in India: 1872–1966. Public Finance, 1970, 25, 8197.Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, B. D. The displacement-effect in the growth of Canadian government expenditures. Public Finance, 1973, 28, 301314.Google Scholar
Schmidt, M. G. The growth of the tax state: The industrial democracies, 1950–1978. In Taylor, C. L. (Ed.). Why governments grow. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1983.Google Scholar
Singer, J. D., & Small, M. The wages of war, 1816–1965. New York: John Wiley, 1972.Google Scholar
Skowronek, S. Building a new American state: The expansion of national administrative capacities, 1877–1920. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Small, M., & Singer, J. D. Resort to arms. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1982.Google Scholar
Stein, A. A. The nation at war. Baltimore: Johns Hop-kins University Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Stein, A. A., & Russett, B. Evaluating war: Outcomes and consequences. In Gurr, T. R. (Ed.). Handbook of political conflict: Theory and research. New York: Free Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Stohl, M. War and domestic political violence: The American capacity for repression and reaction. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1976.Google Scholar
Strickland, J. “The second image reversed” revisited: The concept of the state, war, and the enhancement of American national administrative capacities, 1916–1920. Presented to the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Mexico City, Mexico, March, 1983.Google Scholar
Sudre, F. C. Les finances de la France au XIXe siecle (vol. 1). Paris: Librarie E. Plon et Cie, 1883.Google Scholar
Taylor, C. L. Limits to governmental growth. In Merritt, R. L. & Russett, B. (Eds.). From national development to global community. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1981.Google Scholar
Thompson, W. R., & Zuk, G. War, inflation, and Kondratieff's long waves. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1982, 26, 621644.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, C. Reflections on the history of European state-making. In Tilly, C. (Ed.). The formation of national states in Western Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Tilly, C. Sinews of war. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Council of European Studies Conference of Europeanists, Washington, D.C., March, 1979.Google Scholar
Titmuss, R. M. Essays on the welfare state (2nd ed.). Boston: Beacon Press, 1969.Google Scholar
Tussing, A. D., & Henning, J. A. Long-run growth of non-defense government expenditures in the United States. Public Finance Quarterly, 1974, 2, 202222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce. Historical statistics of the United States: Colonial times to 1970. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975.Google Scholar
U.S. Office of the President. The budget of the United States government. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1983.Google Scholar
U.S. Office of the President. Economic report of the president. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1982.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. E., & Weber, W. E. Wagner's law, fiscal institutions and the growth of government. National Tax Journal, 1977, 30, 5967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wheeler, H. G. Postwar industrial growth. In Singer, J. D. (Ed.). The correlates of war II: Testing some realpolitik models. New York: Free Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Wiseman, J., & Diamond, J. Comment: On long-run growth of nondefense government expenditures in the United States. Public Finance Quarterly, 1975, 3, 411414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Q. A study of war. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.