Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T00:47:35.849Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Secular Party Rule and Religious Violence in Pakistan

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2017

GARETH NELLIS  and
NILOUFER SIDDIQUI
GARETH NELLIS*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
NILOUFER SIDDIQUI*
Affiliation:
University at Albany-State University of New York
*
Gareth Nellis is the Evidence in Governance and Politics Postdoctoral fellow, Institute of Governmental Studies, Moses Hall, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA ([email protected]).
Niloufer Siddiqui is a Postdoctoral Fellow, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy, University at Albany, State University of New York, 135 Western Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does secular party incumbency affect religious violence? Existing theory is ambiguous. On the one hand, religiously motivated militants might target areas that vote secularists into office. On the other hand, secular party politicians, reliant on the support of violence-hit communities, may face powerful electoral incentives to quell attacks. Candidates bent on preventing bloodshed might also sort into such parties. To adjudicate these claims, we combine constituency-level election returns with event data on Islamist and sectarian violence in Pakistan (1988–2011). For identification, we compare districts where secular parties narrowly won or lost elections. We find that secularist rule causes a sizable reduction in local religious conflict. Additional analyses suggest that the result stems from electoral pressures to cater to core party supporters and not from politician selection. The effect is concentrated in regions with denser police presence, highlighting the importance of state capacity for suppressing religious disorder.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 112 , Issue 1 , February 2018 , pp. 49 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Our thanks to Rafael Ahlskog, Ahsan Butt, Chris Clary, Asad Liaqat, Steven Rosenzweig, Fredrik Sävje, Mike Weaver, Steven Wilkinson, anonymous reviewers, and participants at the 2017 Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, and the 2017 Midwest Political Science Association conference for helpful comments and advice.

References

Ahmed, Khaled. 2011. Sectarian War: Pakistan’s Sunni-Shia Violence and Its Links to the Middle East. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Akbar, Nafisa, and Ostermann, Susan L.. 2015. “Understanding, Defining, and Measuring State Capacity in India: Traditional, Modern, and Everything in Between.” Asian Survey 55 (5): 845–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashworth, Scott. 2012. “Electoral Accountability: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Work.” Annual Review of Political Science 15: 183–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banerjee, Abhijit, Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra, Duflo, Esther, Keniston, Daniel, and Singh, Nina. 2012. “Can Institutions Be Reformed From Within? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment with the Rajasthan Police.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 17912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beath, Andrew, Christia, Fotini, and Enikolopov, Ruben. 2013. “Winning Hearts and Minds through Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beber, Bernd, Roessler, Philip, and Scacco, Alexandra. 2014. “Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan.” The Journal of Politics 76 (3): 649–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, Graeme, Fair, C. Christine, Malhotra, Neil, and Shapiro, Jacob N. 2013. “Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (1): 30–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blakeslee, David. 2013. “Propaganda and Ethno-Religious Politics in Developing Countries: Evidence from India.” Working paper, Columbia University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Annan, Jeannie. 2016. “Can Employment Reduce Lawlessness and Rebellion? A Field Experiment with High-Risk Men in a Fragile State.” American Political Science Review 110 (1): 1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Miguel, Edward. 2010. “Civil War.” Journal of Economic Literature 48 (1): 3–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brass, Paul R. 2003. The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence in Contemporary India. Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press.Google Scholar
Burgess, Robin, Jedwab, Remi, Miguel, Edward, Morjaria, Ameet et al. 2015. “The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya.” The American Economic Review 105 (6): 1817–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, Daniel M., and Broockman, David E.. 2011. “Do Politicians Racially Discriminate Against Constituents? A Field Experiment on State Legislators.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (3): 463–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callen, Michael, and Long, James D.. 2015. “Institutional Corruption and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan.” American Economic Review 105 (1): 354–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andreas, and Min, Brian. 2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics 62 (01): 87–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra, and Duflo, Esther. 2004. “Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India.” Econometrica 72 (5): 1409–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clots-Figueras, Irma. 2011. “Women in Politics: Evidence from the Indian States.” Journal of Public Economics 95 (7): 664–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clots-Figueras, Irma. 2012. “Are Female Leaders Good for Education?” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 4 (1): 212–44.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Vicente, Pedro C.. 2012. “Violence, Bribery, and Fraud: The Political Economy of Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Public Choice 153 (1-2): 117–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Vicente, Pedro C.. 2014. “Voters and Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria.” The Economic Journal 124 (574): 327–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Comolli, Virginia. 2015. Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Crost, Benjamin, Felter, Joseph, and Johnston, Patrick. 2014. “Aid Under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict.” The American Economic Review 104 (6): 1833–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dell, Melissa. 2015. “Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War.” American Economic Review 105 (6): 1738–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Democracy International. 2008. U.S. Election Observation Mission to Pakistan: General Elections 2008. Bethesda, MD: Democracy International Press.Google Scholar
Dube, Oeindrila, and Naidu, Suresh. 2015. “Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of US Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia.” The Journal of Politics 77 (1): 249–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2011. “Fighting and Voting: Violent Conflict and Electoral Politics.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (3): 327–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2012. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duverger, Maurice. 1959. Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
Ellman, Matthew, and Wantchekon, Leonard. 2000. “Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 499–531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, C. Christine. 2014. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, C. Christine. 2015. “Explaining Support for Sectarian Terrorism in Pakistan: Piety, Maslak and Sharia.” Religions 6: 1137–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, C. Christine, and Jones, Seth G.. 2009. “Pakistan’s War Within.” Survival 51 (6): 161–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, C. Christine, Malhotra, Neil, and Shapiro, Jacob N.. 2012. “Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76 (4): 688–720.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., Humphreys, Macartan, and Weinstein, Jeremy M.. 2015. “How Does Development Assistance Affect Collective Action Capacity? Results from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia.” American Political Science Review 109 (03): 450– 69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 1996. “Explaining Interethnic Cooperation.” American Political Science Review 90 (4): 715–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, Fernando, and Gyourko, Joseph. 2009. “Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (1): 399–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisman, Raymond, Schulz, Florian, and Vig, Vikrant. 2014. “The Private Returns to Public Office.” Journal of Political Economy 122 (4): 806–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franck, Raphael, and Rainer, Ilia. 2012. “Does the Leader’s Ethnicity Matter? Ethnic Favoritism, Education, and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa.” American Political Science Review 106 (02): 294–325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gayer, Laurent. 2014. Karachi: Ordered Disorder and the Struggle for the City. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Grzymala-Busse, Anna. 2012. “Why Comparative Politics Should Take Religion (More) Seriously.” Annual Review of Political Science 15: 421–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted R. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Haqqani, Husain. 2005. Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment.Google Scholar
Herbst, Jeffrey. 2014. States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hicken, Allen. 2009. Building Party Systems in Developing Democracies. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobbes, Thomas. 1651. Leviathan, or, The matter, forme, and power of a common wealth, ecclesiasticall and civil. London: Printed for Andrew Crooke.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald. 2001. The Deadly Ethnic Riot. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Institute for Economics and Peace. 2015. Global Terrorism Index 2015: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism.Google Scholar
Ishiyama, John. 2009. “Do Ethnic Parties Promote Minority Ethnic Conflict?” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 15 (1): 56–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyer, Sriya, and Shrivastava, Anand. 2015. “Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jaffrelot, Christophe. 2015. The Pakistan Paradox: Instability and Resilience. New Delhi: Random House India.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jha, Saumitra. 2013. “Trade, Institutions, and Ethnic Tolerance: Evidence from South Asia.” American Political Science Review 107 (4): 806–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Philip Edward. 2003. The Pakistan People’s Party: Rise to Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 1987. “The Logic of Religious Violence.” The Journal of Strategic Studies 10 (4): 172–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 2003. Terror in the Mind of God: The Global Rise of Religious Violence. University of California Press.Google Scholar
Kalin, Michael, and Siddiqui, Niloufer. Forthcoming. “National Identity, Religious Tolerance, and Group Conflict: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Pakistan.” Conflict Management and Peace Science.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Balcells, Laia. 2010. “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” American Political Science Review 104 (03): 415–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khan, Sayeed Hasan, and Jacobsen, Kurt. 2008. “Pakistan after Benazir.” Economic and Political Weekly 43 (2): 10–2.Google Scholar
Khwaja, Asim Ijaz, and Mian, Atif. 2005. “Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (4): 1371–411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laïdi, Zaki. 2008. EU Foreign Policy in a Globalized World: Normative Power and Social Preferences. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, David S. 2008. “Randomized Experiments from Non-random Selection in U.S. House Elections.” Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 675–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, David S., Moretti, Enrico, and Butler, Matthew J.. 2004. “Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the US House.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (3): 807–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LeVeaux, Christine, and Garand, James C.. 2003. “Race-Based Redistricting, Core Constituencies, and Legislative Responsiveness to Constituency Change.” Social Science Quarterly 84 (1): 32–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lieven, Anatol. 2011. Pakistan: A Hard Country. London: Public Affairs.Google Scholar
Lupu, Noam, and Peisakhin, Leonid. Forthcoming. “The Legacy of Political Violence Across Generations.” American Journal of Political Science.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2010. “Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War.” American Political Science Review 104 (01): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyall, Jason, Blair, Graeme, and Imai, Kosuke. 2013. “Explaining Support for Combatants During Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan.” American Political Science Review 107 (04): 679–705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Scully, Timothy. 1995. Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
McCrary, Justin. 2008. “Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: a Density Test.” Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 698–714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meyersson, Erik. 2014. “Islamic Rule and the Empowerment of the Poor and Pious.” Econometrica 82 (1): 229–69.Google Scholar
Misra, Ashutosh. 2003. “Rise of Religious Parties in Pakistan: Causes and Prospects.” Strategic Analysis 27 (2): 186–215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mufti, Mariam. 2011. ”Elite Recruitment and Regime Dynamics in Pakistan.” PhD thesis, Johns Hopkins University.Google Scholar
Naseemullah, Adnan. 2016. “The Contested Capacity of the State in the Indian Economy.” India Review 15 (4): 407–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nasr, Seyyed Vali Reza. 1992. “Democracy and the Crisis of Governability in Pakistan.” Asian Survey 32 (6): 521–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nellis, Gareth, Weaver, Michael, and Rosenzweig, Steven. 2016. “Do Parties Matter for Ethnic Violence? Evidence from India.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11 (3): 249–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa, and Inglehart, Ronald. 2011. Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nunn, Nathan, and Qian, Nancy. 2014. “US Food Aid and Civil Conflict.” The American Economic Review 104 (6): 1630–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oldenburg, Philip. 2010. India, Pakistan, and Democracy: Solving the Puzzle of Divergent Paths. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paluck, Elizabeth Levy, and Green, Donald P.. 2009. “Deference, Dissent, and Dispute Resolution: An Experimental Intervention Using Mass Media to Change Norms and Behavior in Rwanda.” American Political Science Review 103 (4): 622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patil, Sanjay. 2008. “Feudal Forces: Reform Delayed (Moving from Force to Service in South Asian Policing).” New Delhi: Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative.Google Scholar
Paul, T. V. 2010. State Capacity and South Asia’s Perennial Insecurity Problem. In South Asia’s Weak States: Understanding the Regional Insecurity Predicament, ed. Paul, T.V.. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 3–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1996. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (3): 825–850.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettersson-Lidbom, Per. 2008. “Do Parties Matter for Economic Outcomes? A Regression-Discontinuity Approach.” Journal of the European Economic Association 6 (5): 1037–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinker, Steven. 2011. The Better Angels of our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and its Causes. New York: Viking.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rafiq, Arif. 2014. “Sunni Deobandi-Shii Sectarian Violence in Pakistan.” Middle East Institute Report.Google Scholar
Rehavi, M. Marit. 2007. “Sex and Politics: Do Female Legislators Affect State Spending?” Working Paper: University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Rieck, Andreas. 2016. The Shias of Pakistan: An Assertive and Beleaguered Minority. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samad, Yunas. 1996. Pakistan or Punjabistan: Crisis of National Identity. In Punjabi Identity: Continuity and Change, eds. Singh, G. and Talbot, I.. New Delhi: Manohar.Google Scholar
Scott, James C. 1998. Seeing Like a State. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Selengut, Charles. 2017. Sacred Fury: Understanding Religious Violence. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2012. “States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders.” Perspectives on Politics 10 (2): 243–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Talbot, Ian. 2002. The Punjabization of Pakistan: Myth or Reality? In Pakistan: Nationalism Without a Nation, ed. Jaffrelot, Christophe. New Delhi: Zed Books.Google Scholar
Ullah, Haroon K. 2013. Vying for Allah’s Vote: Understanding Islamic Parties, Political Violence, and Extremism in Pakistan. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
USAID. 2015. Audit of USAID Pakistans Political Party Development Program. Technical report.Google Scholar
Wald, Kenneth D., Silverman, Adam L., and Fridy, Kevin S.. 2005. “Making Sense of Religion in Political Life.” Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 8: 121–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinstein, Jeremy. 2007. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wilder, Andrew. 1999. The Pakistani Voter: Electoral Politics and Voting Behaviour in the Punjab. Karachi: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Steven I. 2004. Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. Washington D.C.: World Bank.Google Scholar
Zaman, Muhammad Qasim. 1998. “Sectarianism in Pakistan: The Radicalization of Shii and Sunni Identities.” Modern Asian Studies 32 (03): 689–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Nellis and Siddiqui supplementary material 1

Online Appendix

Download Nellis and Siddiqui supplementary material 1(PDF)
PDF 386.8 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Nellis and Siddiqui Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VHNHHN
Link
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.