Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T19:41:32.789Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Rethinking Allison's Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Jonathan Bendor
Affiliation:
Stanford University
Thomas H. Hammond
Affiliation:
Michigan State University

Abstract

The ideas in Graham Allison's Essence of Decision (1971) have had an enormous impact on the study and teaching of bureaucracy and foreign policy making. While Allison's work has received considerable critical attention, there has been surprisingly little examination of the content and internal logic of his models. We subject each of Allison's three models to a systematic critical analysis. Our conclusion is that the models require substantial reformulation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1992 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allison, Graham. 1969. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review 63:689718.10.2307/1954423Google Scholar
Allison, Graham. 1971. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Allison, Graham, and Halperin, Morton. 1972. “Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications.” In Theory and Policy in International Relations, ed. Tanter, Raymond and Ullman, Richard. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Allyn, Bruce J., Blight, James G., and Welch, David A.. 1989/1990. “Essence of Revision: Moscow, Havana, and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” International Security 14:136172.10.2307/2538934Google Scholar
Art, Robert. 1973. “Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique.” Policy Sciences 4:467–90.10.1007/BF01728472Google Scholar
Ball, Desmond. 1974. “The Blind Men and the Elephant: A Critique of Bureaucratic Politics Theory.” Australian Outlook 28:7192.10.1080/10357717408444495Google Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan. 1985. Parallel Systems: Redundancy in Government. Berkeley: University of California Press.10.1525/9780520321502Google Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan. 1987. “In Good Times and Bad: Reciprocity in an Uncertain World.” American Journal of Political Science 31:531–58.10.2307/2111282Google Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan, and Hammond, Thomas H.. 1989. “Rethinking Allison's Models.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta.Google Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan, Taylor, Serge, and Van Gaalen, Roland. 1987. “Stacking the Deck: Bureaucratic Missions and Policy Design.” American Political Science Review 81:873–96.10.2307/1962681Google Scholar
Blight, James, Nye, Joseph Jr.,, and Welch, David. 1987. “The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited.” Foreign Affairs 66:170–88.10.2307/20043297Google Scholar
Blight, James, and Welch, David. 1989. On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Hill & Wang.Google Scholar
Bobrow, Davis. 1972. International Relations. New York: Foreign Policy Association.Google Scholar
Bouchard, Joseph F. 1991. Command in Crisis: Four Case Studies. New York: Columbia University Press.10.7312/bouc90694Google Scholar
Brugioni, Dino A. 1991. Eyeball to Eyeball: The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1985. “The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model.” American Political Science Review 79:156–77.10.2307/1956125Google Scholar
Caldwell, Dan. 1977. “Bureaucratic Foreign Policy-Making.” American Behavioral Scientist 21:87110.10.1177/000276427702100105Google Scholar
Carroll, Lewis. 1893. Sylvie and Bruno Concluded. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Cornford, J. P. 1974. Review of Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. British Journal of Political Science 4:231–43.10.1017/S0007123400009480Google Scholar
Cyert, Richard, and March, James. 1963. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert A., and Lindblom, Charles E.. 1953. Politics, Economics, and Welfare. New York: Harper & Row. Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1967. Inside Bureaucracy. Boston: Little, Brown.10.7249/CB156Google Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. 1976. “Logic, Politics, and Foreign Policy Processes: A Critique of the Bureaucratic Politics Model.” International Affairs 52:434–49.10.2307/2616555Google Scholar
Gallucci, Robert L. 1975. Neither Peace nor Honor: The Politics of American Military Policy in Viet-Nam. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Garthoff, Raymond. 1988. “Cuban Missile Crisis: The Soviet Story.” Foreign Policy 72:6180.10.2307/1148820Google Scholar
Garthoff, Raymond L. 1989. Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis. Rev. ed. Washington: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
George, Alexander. 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Owen, Guillermo, and Feld, Scott. 1983. “Thirteen Theorems in Search of the Truth.” Theory and Decision 15:261–78.10.1007/BF00125672Google Scholar
Gulick, Luther. 1937. “Notes on the Theory of Organization.” In Papers on the Science of Administration, ed. Gulick, Luther and Urwick, Lyndall. New York: Columbia University.Google Scholar
Halperin, Morton H. 1974. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Hammond, Thomas H. 1986. “Agenda Control, Organizational Structure, and Bureaucratic Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 30:380420.10.2307/2111102Google Scholar
Hammond, Thomas H. N.d. “Toward a General Theory of Hierarchy: Books, Bureaucrats, Basketball Tournaments, and the Administrative Structure of the Nation-State.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Hammond, Thomas H., and Thomas, Paul A.. 1989. “The Impossibility of a Neutral Hierarchy.” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 5:155–84.Google Scholar
Hampson, Fen. 1984/1985. “The Divided Decision-Maker: American Domestic Politics and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” International Security 9:130–65.10.2307/2538590Google Scholar
Hogarth, Robin. 1987. Judgment and Choice. 2d ed. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole. 1972. Review of Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. Western Political Quarterly 25:136–40.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1961. The Common Defense. New York: Columbia University Press.10.7312/hunt93234Google Scholar
Jefferies, Chris. 1977. “Defense Decisionmaking in the Organizational-Bureaucratic Context.” In American Defense Policy, 4th ed., ed. Endicott, John and Stafford, Roy Jr., Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert. 1984. After Hegemony. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kohl, Wilfrid. 1975. “The Nixon-Kissinger Foreign Policy System and U.S.-European Relations.” World Politics 28:143.10.2307/2010028Google Scholar
Krasner, Steven. 1972. “Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland).” Foreign Policy 7:159–79.10.2307/1147761Google Scholar
Kurth, James. 1971. “The Widening Gyre: The Logic of American Weapons Procurement.” Public Policy 19:373404.Google Scholar
Landau, Martin. 1969. “Redundancy, Rationality, and the Problem of Duplication and Overlap.” Public Administration Review 29:346–58.10.2307/973247Google Scholar
Landau, Martin. 1972. Political Science and Political Theory. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack. 1986. “Organizational Routines and the Causes of War.” International Studies Quarterly 30:193222.10.2307/2600676Google Scholar
Long, Norton. 1954. “Public Policy and Administration: The Goals of Rationality and Responsibility.” Public Administration Review 14:2231.10.2307/972965Google Scholar
Luce, R. Duncan, and Raiffa, Howard. 1957. Games and Decisions. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Lukas, Anthony. 1987. “Class Reunion: Kennedy's Men Relive the Cuban Missile Crisis.” New York Times Magazine, 30 August.Google Scholar
March, James G., and Shapira, Zur. 1982. “Behavioral Decision Theory and Organizational Decision Theory.” In Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Inquiry, ed. Ungson, Gerardo and Braunstein, Daniel. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.Google Scholar
March, James G., and Simon, Herbert A.. 1958. Organizations. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Morrow, James. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 33:941–72.10.2307/2111116Google Scholar
Nisbett, Richard and Ross, Lee. 1980. Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Perlmutter, Amos. 1974. “The Presidential Political Center and Foreign Policy: A Critique of the Revisionist and Bureaucratic-Political Orientations.” World Politics 27:87106.10.2307/2009927Google Scholar
Posen, Barry. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Peterson, Paul E. 1976. School Politics, Chicago Style. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511551598Google Scholar
Rourke, Francis. 1969. Bureaucracy, Politics, and Public Policy. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Rourke, Francis. 1972. Review of Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. Administrative Science Quarterly 71:431–33.10.2307/2392167Google Scholar
Sapolsky, Harvey. 1972. The Polaris System Development: Bureaucratic and Programmatic Success in Government. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.10.4159/harvard.9780674432703Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schilling, Warner. 1962. “The Politics of National Defense: Fiscal 1950.” In Strategy, Politics, and Defense Budgets, ed. Schilling, Warner, Hammond, Paul, and Snyder, Glenn. New York: Columbia University Press.10.7312/schi92976Google Scholar
Schlesinger, Arthur M. Jr., 1965. A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House. Boston: Houghton-Mifflin.Google Scholar
Scott, W. Richard. 1981. Organizations: Rational, Natural, and Open Systems. 2d ed. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert A. 1947. Administrative Behavior. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert A. 1957. Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert A. 1973. “Applying Information Technology to Organization Design.” Public Administration Review 33:268–78.10.2307/974804Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert A., Smithburg, Donald, and Thompson, Victor. 1950. Public Administration. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H., and Diesing, Paul. 1977. Conflict among Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sorensen, Theodore C. 1965. Kennedy. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Steinbruner, John. 1974. The Cybernetic Theory of Decision. Princeton: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400823796Google Scholar
Taylor, Frederick W. [1911] 1947. The Principles of Scientific Management. Reprint. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Taylor, Serge. 1984. Making Bureaucracies Think: The Environmental Impact Statement Strategy of Administrative Reform. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, James C. 1980. Rolling Thunder: Understanding Policy and Program failure. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, James D., and Tuden, Arthur. 1959. “Strategies, Structures, and Processes of Organizational Decision.” In Comparative Studies in Administration, ed. Thompson, James D. et al. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 1985. “The Influence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis.” International Security 10:137203.10.2307/2538793Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1989. “The Abuse of Probability in Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy.” American Political Science Review 83:7791.10.2307/1956435Google Scholar
Tullock, Gordon. 1965. The Politics of Bureaucracy. Washington: Public Affairs Press.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 1974. “Dissolving the State: Three Recent Perspectives on International Relations.” International Organization 28:435–66.10.1017/S0020818300005610Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 1989. “Uncertainty, Rational Learning, and Bargaining in the Cuban Missile Crisis.” In Models of Strategic Choice in Politics, ed. Ordeshook, Peter. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Welch, David A., and Blight, James G.. 1987/1988. “The Eleventh Hour of the Cuban Missile Crisis: An Introduction to the ExComm Transcripts.” International Security 12:592.10.2307/2538800Google Scholar
Williamson, Samuel. 1979. “Theories of Organizational Process and Foreign Policy Outcomes.” In Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, ed. Lauren, Paul. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Yanarella, Ernest. 1975. “‘Reconstructed Logic’ and ‘Logic-in-Use’ in Decision-Making Analysis: Graham Allison.” Polity 8:156–72.10.2307/3234353Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.