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Political Issues and the Vote: November, 1952

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Angus Campbell ,
Gerald Gurin  and
Warren E. Miller
Angus Campbell
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
Gerald Gurin
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
Warren E. Miller
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
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Extract

In March, 1952 the Carnegie Corporation made available to the Social Science Research Council a research grant to support a major study of factors influencing the popular vote in the 1952 presidential election. Under the sponsorship of the Council's Committee on Political Behavior this project is currently being carried out by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan.

The study was developed around six major objectives:

  1. 1. To identify the voters and non-voters, Republicans and Democrats, within four major geographical areas, in regard to

    a. socio-economic characteristics;

    b. attitudes and opinions on political issues;

    c. perceptions of the parties and the candidates.

  2. 2. To compare these groups to the corresponding groups in the 1948 presidential election.

  3. 3. To trace the resolution of the vote with particular attention to the undecided and changing voters.

  4. 4. To study the impact of the activities of the major parties on the population.

  5. 5. To analyze the nature and correlates of political party identification.

  6. 6. To analyze the nature and correlates of political participation.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 47 , Issue 2 , June 1953 , pp. 359 - 385
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1953

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References

1 The members of the SSRC Committee on Political Behavior are V. O. Key (chairman), Conrad M. Arensberg, Angus Campbell, Alfred de Grazia, Oliver Garceau, Avery Leiserson, M. Brewster Smith, and David B. Truman. The Committee is in no way responsible for the present article.

2 Two hundred and twenty-two of the original 2021 respondents, who constituted an extra loading of the sample in the Far West, were dropped from the November sample. An additional 185 respondents could not be reinterviewed. Statements of the sample design and sampling errors and copies of the questionnaires may be obtained from the Survey Research Center upon request.

3 Campbell, Angus and Kahn, R. L., The People Elect a President (Ann Arbor, 1952)Google Scholar; Miller, Warren E., “Party Preference and Attitudes on Political Issues: 1948–1951”, this Review, Vol. 47, pp. 45–60 (03, 1953)Google Scholar.

4 Belknap, George and Campbell, Angus, “Political Party Identification and Attitudes toward Foreign Policy”, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 15, pp. 601–23 (Winter, 1951–1952)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Lazarsfeld, P., Berelson, B., and Gaudet, H., The People's Choice (New York, 1948)Google Scholar.

6 The seven questions are reproduced in Appendix II along with a detailed statement as to how the answers to these questions were categorized for purposes of the present analysis.

7 A separate analysis of the importance of these charges, based on the coding of certain open-ended questions in the interview, will be included in a later report.

8 It must be remembered that the sample excluded the institutional population, the “floating” population, people living in military establishments, etc. Such people are estimated to total nearly ten million and it may be safely assumed that they are very largely non-voters.

9 The authors are aware of the dangers of error in recalling a vote cast four years previously. Examination of the data on the reported 1948 votes shows evidence of some random error in report, but no serious systematic error. The question on 1948 vote was asked in the pre-election interview.

10 There were also a few people who had voted Republican in 1948 but who voted Democratic in 1952. Their number was too small to warrant statistical analysis.

11 The questions about earlier voting behavior were not exactly the same in the two surveys. In 1948 the respondents were asked, “Have you voted in any presidential elections before this one? Have you usually voted Democratic or Republican?” In 1952 they were asked “In 1948, you remember that Truman ran against Dewey. Do you remember for sure whether or not you voted in that election? Which one did you vote for?”

12 As shown in the 1948 Survey Research Center study and in as yet unpublished data from the present study.

13 By “overall issue stand” we mean a summary score based on the attitudes on all six issues, rather than the attitude on an individual issue.

14 P. Lazarsfeld, B. Berelson, and H. Gaudet, The People's Choice, cited in n. 5.

15 The figures for the 1948 vote are based on the study of the 1948 election conducted by the Survey Research Center.

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