Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T10:06:31.819Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members' Voting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2004

BRANDICE CANES-WRONE ,
DAVID W. BRADY  and
JOHN F. COGAN
BRANDICE CANES-WRONE
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, California Institute of Technology, Division of Humanities and Social Sciences 228-77, Pasadena, CA 91125 ([email protected]).
DAVID W. BRADY
Affiliation:
Professor of Political Science, Standford University and Fellow, The Hoover Institution, 241 Littlefield, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5015 ([email protected]).
JOHN F. COGAN
Affiliation:
Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution and Professor of Public Policy, Standford University, HHMB Room 347, Stanford, CA 94305-6010 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does a typical House member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll-call decisions? We investigate the relationship between incumbents' electoral performance and roll-call support for their party—controlling for district ideology, challenger quality, and campaign spending, among other factors—through a series of tests of the 1956–1996 elections. The tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting. First, in each election, an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party. Second, this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants. Third, a member's probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party, and this relationship holds for not only marginal, but also safe members.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 96 , Issue 1 , March 2002 , pp. 127 - 140
Copyright
© 2002 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldrich John H. 1995 Why Parties? The Origin and Transformation of Party Politics in America Chicago University of Chicago Press
Ansolabehere Stephen Snyder James M. Jr. Charles Stewart III 2000 Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage American Journal of Political Science 44 January 17 34Google Scholar
Ansolabehere Stephen Snyder James M. Jr Charles Stewart III 2001 Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections American Journal of Political Science 45 January 136 59Google Scholar
Aranson Peter H. Hinich Melvin J. Ordeshook Peter C. 1974 Election Goals and Strategies: Equivalent and Nonequivalent Candidate Objectives American Political Science Review 68 March 135 52Google Scholar
Arnold R. Douglas 1990 The Logic of Congressional Action New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Bailey Michael 2001 Quiet Influence: The Representation of Diffuse Interests on Postwar Trade Policy Legislative Studies Quarterly 26 February 45 80Google Scholar
Bender Bruce Lott John R. 1996 Legislator Voting and Shirking: A Critical Review of the Literature Public Choice 87 April 67 100Google Scholar
Bernstein Robert A. 1989 Elections, Representation and Congressional Voting Behavior: The Myth of Constituency Control Englewood Cliffs, NJ Prentice Hall
Brady David W. Brandice Canes-Wrone Cogan John F. 2000 Differences between Winning and Losing Incumbents Change and Continuity in House Elections David W. Brady John F. Cogan Morris P. Fiorina Stanford, CA Stanford University Press 178 92
Brady David W. Cogan John F. Gaines Brian Rivers R. Douglas 1996 The Perils of Presidential Support: How the Republicans Captured the House Political Behavior 18 December 345 68Google Scholar
Campbell Angus Converse Philip E. Miller Warren E. Stokes Donald E. 1960 The American Voter New York Wiley
Canes-Wrone Brandice 2001 The President's Legislative Influence from Public Appeals American Journal of Political Science 45 April 313 29Google Scholar
Clausen Aage 1973 How Congressmen Decide: A Policy Focus New York St. Martin's Press
Collie Melissa P. 1985 Voting Behavior in Legislatures Handbook of Legislative Research Gerhard Loewenberg Samuel Patterson Malcolm Jewell Cambridge, MA Harvard University Press 471 518
Converse Philip E. The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics Ideology and Discontent David E. Apter New York Free Press 206 61
Cook R. Dennis Weisberg Sanford 1983 Diagnostics for Heteroscedasticity in Regression Biometrika 70 April 1 10Google Scholar
Cox Gary W. McCubbins Mathew D. 1993 Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House Berkeley University of California Press
Dallek Robert 1991 Lone Star Rising: Lyndon Johnson and His Times, 1908–1960 New York Oxford University Press
Delli Carpini Michael X. Scott Keeter 1991 Stability and Change in the U.S. Public's Knowledge of Politics Public Opinion Quarterly Winter 583 612Google Scholar
Downs Anthony 1957 An Economic Theory of Democracy New York Harper
Erikson Robert S. 1971 The Electoral Impact of Congressional Roll Call Voting American Political Science Review 65 December 1018 32Google Scholar
Erikson Robert S. 1988 The Puzzle of Midterm Loss Journal of Politics 50 November 1011 29Google Scholar
Erikson Robert S. Wright Gerald C. 1989 Voters, Candidates and Issues in Congressional Elections Congress Reconsidered 4th ed. Lawrence C. Dodd Bruce I. Oppenheimer Washington, DC Congressional Quarterly Press 91 116
Erikson Robert S. Wright Gerald C. 1993 Voters, Candidates and Issues in Congressional Elections Congress Reconsidered 5th ed. Lawrence C. Dodd Bruce I. Oppenheimer Washington, DC Congressional Quarterly Press 91 114
Erikson Robert S. Wright Gerald C. 1997 Voters, Candidates and Issues in Congressional Elections Congress Reconsidered 6th ed. Lawrence C. Dodd Bruce I. Oppenheimer Washington, DC Congressional Quarterly Press 132 61
Erikson Robert S. Wright Gerald C. 2000 Representation of Constituency Ideology in Congress Change and Continuity in House Elections David W. Brady John F. Cogan John F. Ferejohn Stanford, CA Stanford University Press 149 77
Ferejohn John A. Calvert Randall L. 1984 Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective American Journal of Political Science 28 February 127 46Google Scholar
Fiorina Morris P. 1974 Representatives, Roll Calls, and Constituencies Lexington, MA Lexington Books
Fiorina Morris P. 1989 Congress: Keystone of the Washington Establishment 2nd ed. New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Gaines Brian J. Nokken Timothy P. 1999 The Presidential Shadow on Midterm House Elections: Presidential Support, Presidential Agendas, and Seat Loss Typescript University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign
Goff Brian L. Grier Kevin B. 1993 On the (Mis)measurement of Legislator Ideology and Shirking Public Choice 76 June 5 19Google Scholar
Groseclose Tim Levitt Steven D. Snyder James M. Jr. 1999 Comparing Interest Group Scores across Time and Chambers: Adjusted ADA Scores for the U.S. Congress American Political Science Review 93 March 33 50Google Scholar
Hutchings Vincent L. 1998 Issue Salience and Support for Civil Rights Legislation Among Southern Democrats Legislative Studies Quarterly 23 November 521 44Google Scholar
Jacobson Gary C. 1990 The Effects of Campaign Spending in House Elections: New Evidence for Old Arguments American Journal of Political Science 34 May 334 62Google Scholar
Jacobson Gary C. 1996 The 1994 House Elections in Perspective Political Science Quarterly 111 Summer 203 23Google Scholar
Jacobson Gary C. 2000 Reversal of Fortune: The Transformation of U.S. House Elections in the 1990s Change and Continuity in House Elections David W. Brady John F. Cogan Morris P. Fiorina Stanford, CA Stanford University Press 10 38
Jacobson Gary C. Kernell Samuel 1983 Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections 2nd ed. New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Johannes John R. McAdams John C. 1981 The Congressional Incumbency Effect: Is It Casework, Policy Compatibility, or Something Else? An Examination of the 1978 Election American Journal of Political Science 25 August 512 42Google Scholar
Kiewiet D. Roderick McCubbins Mathew D. 1988 Presidential Influence on Congressional Appropriations Decisions American Journal of Political Science 32 August 713 36Google Scholar
Kimhi Ayal 1999 Estimation of an Endogenous Switching Regression Model with Discrete Dependent Variables: Monte-Carlo Analysis and Empirical Application of Three Estimators Empirical Economics 24 2 225 41Google Scholar
Kingdon John W. 1981 Congressmen's Voting Decisions New York Harper & Row
Kollman Ken 1998 Outside Lobbying: Public Opinion and Interest Group Strategies Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press
Kramer Gerald H. 1971 Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 American Political Science Review 65 March 131 43Google Scholar
Kuklinski James H. Daniel S. Metlay Kay W. D. 1982 Citizen Knowledge and Choices on the Complex Issue of Nuclear Energy American Journal of Political Science 26 November 615 39Google Scholar
Lodge Milton McGraw Kathleen M. Stroh Patrick 1989 An Impression-Driven Model of Candidate Evaluation American Political Science Review 83 June 399 419Google Scholar
Lott John R. Bronars Stephen G. 1993 Time-Series Evidence on Shirking in the United States House of Representatives Public Choice 76 June 125 49Google Scholar
Lupia Arthur 1994 Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections American Political Science Review 88 March 63 76Google Scholar
Madalla G. S. 1983 Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics Cambridge Cambridge University Press
Madison James Alexander Hamilton John Jay 1788 1987 The Federalist Papers Isaac Kramnick New York Penguin Books
Matthews Donald R. Stimson James A. 1975 Yeas and Nays: Normal Decision-Making in the U.S. House of Representatives New York Wiley
Mayhew David R. 1974a Congress: The Electoral Connection New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Mayhew David R. 1974b Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals Polity 6 Spring 295 317Google Scholar
McCarty Nolan M. Poole Keith T. 1995 Veto Power and Legislation: An Empirical Analysis of Executive and Legislative Bargaining from 1961–1986 Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 11 October 282 312Google Scholar
Miller Warren E. Stokes Donald E. 1963 Constituency Influence in Congress American Political Science Review 57 March 45 56Google Scholar
Munger Michael C. 1988 Allocation of Desirable Committee Assignments: Extended Queues Versus Committee Expansion American Journal of Political Science 32 May 317 44Google Scholar
Poole Keith T. Rosenthal Howard 1991 Patterns of Congressional Voting American Journal of Political Science 35 February 228 78Google Scholar
Rabinowitz George MacDonald Stuart Elaine 1989 A Directional Theory of Issue Voting American Political Science Review 83 March 93 121Google Scholar
Rohde David W. 1991 Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House Chicago University of Chicago Press
Schoenberger Robert A. 1969 Campaign Strategy and Party Loyalty: The Electoral Relevance of Candidate Decision-Making in the 1964 Congressional Elections American Political Science Review 63 June 515 20Google Scholar
Smith Eric R. A. N. 1989 The Unchanging American Voter Berkeley University of California Press
Snyder James M. Jr. 1996a Constituency Preferences: California Ballot Propositions, 1974–90 Legislative Studies Quarterly 21 November 463 88Google Scholar
Snyder James M. Jr. 1996b Estimating Voter Preferences Using Partially Aggregated Voting Data Typescript. Cambridge, MA
Snyder James M. Jr. Groseclose Tim 2000 Estimating Party Influence in Congressional Roll Call Voting American Journal of Political Science 44 April 193 211Google Scholar
Souraf Frank J. 1992 Inside Campaign Finance New Haven, CT Yale University Press
Sullivan John L. Shaw L. Earl McAvoy Gregory E. Barnum David G. 1993 The Dimensions of Cue-Taking in the House of Representatives: Variation by Issue Area Journal of Politics 55 November 975 97Google Scholar
Tufte Edward R. 1975 Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections American Political Science Review 69 September 812 26Google Scholar
Wright Gerald C. 1978 Candidates' Policy Positions and Voting in U.S. Congressional Elections Legislative Studies Quarterly 3 August 445 64Google Scholar
Wright Matthew B. 1993 Shirking, Political Support and Agency Costs in Political Markets Public Choice 76 June 103 24Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.